Shop Talk

Check Out Line: The extreme weather in July

Check out the chilly, wet weather continuing into July.

Last month, retailers weathered the second-coolest June in 10 years, with record rainfall in cities like New York, Boston and Chicago, according to weather research firm Planalytics.

That put a lid on shopper demand for short shorts and tank tops, hurting June sales results.

July didn’t necessarily bring enough heat to make up for the June wash out.

According to Planalytics, unusually cool temperatures were pervasive across the northern Plains, Midwest, and interior Northeast in July with many locations having monthly readings that made it the coolest ever for July.

Here are some extremes the tracking firm noted:

Regional Extremes (Temperature):

Winds blow in retailers’ favor

This Thanksgiving shopping weekend,  the weather may be one element not giving retailers a headache.

Retailers are geared up for the crucial three-day Thanksgiving shopping weekend, and many have already slashed prices to kick-start sales and rouse wary shoppers into spending mode.

While this holiday sales season could be the worst in years as declining home values, higher food prices, a credit crunch, and rising unemployment curtail consumer spending, weather tracking firm Planalytics has some good news for retailers — it predicts that most major population centers in North America should experience favorable weather conditions during the Thanksgiving weekend. 

In addition, the current cold weather in the Midwest and East Coast have put consumers into a holiday mindset earlier than last year, Planalytics said, boosting demand for seasonal items. 

“While, for some areas, snow flurries and precipitation events are likely over the weekend, they will reinforce to consumers that the holiday season has arrived,” Planalytics stated.

There could be some ”traffic limiting” events in the Midwest and Great Lakes as weather systems resulting in a wintry mix could keep people close to home, the firm said. But it said the Southeast should experience seasonal conditions, and the eastern half of North America should anticipate strong demand for seasonal items like scarves, hats, gloves, sweaters, skiwear, soups, hot beverages, and lip care. 

Planalytics also said the overall trend in the West supports favorable demand for seasonal apparel and consumables, such as food and household cleaning products.

Check Out Line: Mother Nature matters more than ever

Check out the cool and wet weather that hit U.S. retailers in September as the month will go into the books as the fifth coolest in the last seven years and much cooler than last year, according to Planalytics Inc, a business weather tracking company.

While the mean September temperature in the 96 largest U.S. metro areas fell about 4 points from last year to 64.2 degrees, retailers selling rainwear (demand up 29 percent based purely on weather), pants (up 13 percent), dehumidifiers (up 10 percent) and hot cereal (up 2 percent) benefited, Planalytics said.

September also was the 11th wettest since 1961, driven by six tropical storms, including Hurricane Ike, the consulting firm said. Some cities, such as Chicago, St. Louis and Wichita, Kansas, had their wettest Septembers ever recorded, while Houston, Kansas City and Little Rock, Arkansas, had months that still ranked among the the 10 wettest.

“The tropical systems that pummeled both the Gulf and Atlantic coasts became the real weather story of the month. Despite challenging economic times, businesses that supply pre- and post-hurricane staples such as gas, ice, water, non-refrigerated foods, generators, tarps, plywood, and chainsaws experienced brisk sales in the affected areas, driven by need-based purchases” Fred Fox, Planalytics CEO Fred Fox said in a statement. “In addition, foot traffic into grocery stores, restaurants, and hotels was robust along evacuation routes.”

The weather was a favorable factor for 78 percent of the publicly traded companies tracked by Planalytics, with the biggest positive comparisons seen at BJ’s Wholesale Club (store traffic up 24 percent), Family Dollar Stores (up 22 percent), Shoe Carnival (up 16 percent) and Target (up 13 percent).

More broadly, the index for retailers that sell a broad line of merchandise was up 14 percent based solely on weather, and it rose 8 percent for retailers that sell mostly apparel, Planalytics said. On the down side, were indices for home centers (off 4 percent) and restaurants (off 6 percent). 

Also in the basket:

Temperatures favor retailers for a change

Retailers looking to sell seasonal merchandise got a helping hand from the weather last week — at least in some parts of the country.

According to weather tracking firm Planalytics, the week ending June 7 marked the first time in 7 weeks that the temperature average across North America was warmer than the same week the prior year.

It was only the 8th week this year where temperatures across North America were warmer compared to last year, Planalytics said.

The higher temperatures in the East and Mid-Western North America sent consumers to the stores in search of air conditioners, shorts, sandals, and cold beverages. 

“For those areas that experienced severe storms, demand for emergency items such as generators, batteries, and canned foods surged,” Planalytics said.

But in Western portions of North America, cooler temperatures and occasional periods of rain kept seasonal demand levels muted, it said.

(Photo: Reuters) 

Check Out Line: Let the sunshine in

Check out a little retail sunshine.   The weather finally got a little better in April, which helped retailer’s sales even as the economy stayed week, according to Planalytics.   “While April 2008, on a national level, may have been an ‘average’ month in terms of temperature — the weather helped unleash pent up demand, improving sales in the Northeast, Midwest and the Ohio Valley,” the consulting firm said.   The company, which provides weather information for businesses, said home centers, restaurants and softline retailers all showed positive year-on-year gains.    It called out Bon-Ton, Dress Barn, Family Dollar and Lowe’s as having the strongest sales gains.   “While the economy remains sluggish, the weather has certainly done its part this month to improve business’ fortunes,” said Scott Bernhardt, Planalytics Chief Operating Officer.   Also in the basket:   Dr Pepper Snapple to focus on brands, U.S.   Unilever looks for Bertolli sale deal: sources   

(Photo: Reuters)

Could there be sunshine on the horizon for retailers?

March’s weather was not exactly a friend to retailers.

It was cold, damp and even snowy in parts of the country — not quite ideal weather conditions for retailers trying to sell new spring goods, like dresses, sandals, or even fertilizer. (We saw the extent of their struggles on Thursday, when retailers reported dismal March sales figures)

While weather is obviously a very local phenomenon, April so far has not been much kinder than March. According to weather tracking firm Planalytics, this weekend – April 12th and 13th — will be a repeat of most Eastern weekends this spring — a mixture of storminess and cooler temperatures.

But wait … could an upper air pattern be coming to the rescue?

Planalytics said its meteorologists see a change in the upper air patterns between April 16th and 20th. That should result in warm, fair conditions over much of the East and Southeast, extending westward into Texas and as far north as southern Ontario and Quebec, the firm said. 

“Pent-up demand is strong in the East, from the Carolinas to the major Canadian cities of the St. Lawrence, where consumers have been anxious to get out and about. Their gardens need tending, bicycles tuning, and kids want out of the house,”  Planalytics said.

Get ready for surging demand for shorts, sundresses, fertilizer, grass seed, bottled water – even beer — Planalytics said, as people flock to the stores or enjoy the outdoors.