Check out what women buy when they get tired of being a frugalista: boots, plaid and outerwear. 

Those were some of the products that helped October U.S. retail sales improve from a year ago, when the unfolding financial meltdown had shoppers fearing a second Great Depression.

“Frugal fatigue is setting in,” said NPD Group analyst Marshal Cohen. After a year of scrimping, he added, the numbers suggest that some women are going in for a little retail fix.

“Women (not only moms) are shopping their closets, discovering new and fresh looks and filling in with some key updates,” he said.

But selective shopping is not enough to ease worries about the all-important holiday sales.

Thomson Reuters research shows that while October sales rebounded, results from individual retailers were mixed.

Also in the basket:

Warnaco beats estimates; Liz Claiborne misses

Children’s Place October same-store sales beat estimates

CVS says won’t meet pharmacy benefits view in 2010

US commercial real estate to bottom in 2010-survey

Productivity at 6-year high, jobless claims fall

Check out the latest outlook on October sales at U.S. retailers.

While most industry experts expect a 1.2 percent rise thanks to the weather gods and easy comparisons, the forecast doesn’t really say it all.

For instance, while sales trends have improved from a disastrous October 2008, data on the economy and consumer spending gives mixed signals and indicates shoppers remain cautious.

News of the U.S. economy returning to growth may have renewed some hopes of a revival in spending late last week, but the Commerce Department talked about consumer spending falling 0.5 percent in September.

It may be too early to raise hopes based on expectations for October.  One thing is certain — the future is unclear.

Also in the basket:

NBA average ticket price falls for 1st time in 8 years

Wal-Mart announces second round of toy price cuts

Flu fears boost Clorox profit; tops Street view

Dean Foods profit up; sees uptrend in dairy prices

(Reuters photo)

Check out a survey showing that younger U.S. consumers are trimming travel plans as well as turkeys during Thanksgiving.
    
More young professionals (37 percent) are adjusting their Thanksgiving travel and spending plans than the affluent and general population (both 30 percent), according to a survey by American Express. Young professionals are defined as less than 30 years old, having a college degree and a minimum annual household income of $50,000.
    
The young guns also are pulling back in other areas:
 
* 11 percent of young professionals plan to drive instead of flying, compared to 7 percent of the general population and 6 percent of the affluent, who are defined as having a minimum annual household income of $100,000. 
    
* 8 percent of young pros plan to shorten their stay for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, compared to the affluent and general population (both 3 percent). 
 
* 7 percent of young pros will use rewards points, miles and special offers to offset the cost, versus 4 percent of the affluent and 3 percent of the general population.
    
Overall, American Express found 30 percent of U.S. consumers plan to adjust this year’s travel plans for Thanksgiving — historically one of the busiest travel days of the year — but only 21 percent expect those expenses to decline from last year.
    
Those who are changing their plans said they will rely more on travel by car, stay for a shorter time and cash in rewards to help pay for holiday trips as they become more selective amid the high unemployment and soft housing market.

However, in a positive sign, sales at U.S. retailers excluding vehicle sales rose for the second straight month in September, raising cautious optimism consumer spending could support the economic recovery.
    
The American Express survey also showed that the young professionals are cutting back for Halloween, when consumers spent $5.8 billion last year according to the National Retail Federation.
    
* 36 percent of young pros are buying less expensive costumes and decorations.  The rate is 16 percent among the affluent group and 15 percent among the general population. 

* 26 percent of young pros are making their own costumes or using hand-me-downs.  Again, that is higher than the 13 percent of affluent respondents and 11 percent of the general population. 
    
Looking ahead to the winter holiday season, sale prices are still king when it comes to early shoppers.  Eighty-two percent overall said they would be enticed by some sort of discount, with almost all of the young professionals (96 percent) and affluent (94 percent) agreeing.
    
It appears easier to entice the young set.  They would be willing to spend with discounts as low as 10 percent, according to American Express.  The affluent said it would take a discount of nearly 30 percent, on average, for them to buy. 
     
Also in the basket:

Pepsi, Anheuser to jointly buy goods, services

Kraft opens $50 mln Russian biscuit factory

Host Hotels beats estimates on cost cuts

Diageo’s Q1 sales dip 6 pct, sending shares lower 

Handbags and snoods help Burberry top forecasts

(Reuters photo)

Check out the unexpected increase in September same-store sales at U.S. retailers.

Providing hope that demand may be improving ahead of the holiday shopping season, retailers posted a surprise 0.6 percent increase last month in stores open at least a year, instead of the 1.1 percent decline analysts had expected.

And International Council of Shopping Centers sees October same-store sales even with a year ago. TJX Cos, which operates the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, cited strong momentum heading into October.

“The consumer is dipping their toe back into the discretionary waters right now, but just their toe,” said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins.

Among the retailers posting better-than-expected results were Aeropostale, Kohl’s, Children’s Place and American Eagle Outfitters. Many others posted declines that were not as weak as expected.

While this year’s later Labor Day holiday pushed a good chunk of sales from August into September, analysts had wondered if rising unemployment would weigh more heavily on spending.  However, sales of clothing for the back-to-school season fueled many retailers’ performances, and the number of U.S. workers filing jobless claims fell more than expected last week.

But the economy is not out of the woods yet. Holiday spending could be further constrained by consumer aversion to debt, as total U.S. consumer credit posted a deeper-than-expected drop in August, suggesting consumers are opting to cut debt rather than spend.

Also in the basket:

Liz Claiborne in exclusive deal with J.C. Penney

PepsiCo profit tops expectations

Barnes & Noble sees same-store sales decline

Marriott beats estimates on summer demand

(Reuters photo)

Check out a rather glum outlook for the Christmas shopping season.

Last year, holiday sales notched their worst performance in nearly four decades.

This year, they could be a “train wreck” says Britt Beemer, founder and CEO of America’s Research Group.

According to the latest Consumer Mind Reader survey released by America’s Research Group and UBS, 81 percent of respondents said they are pressured by family debts, forcing many to shop less and spend less. 

 “The data foretells a very scary Christmas shopping season with consumers radically cutting back at a time when retailers need shoppers to shore up sagging retail sales,” Beemer said. 

“I am fearful Christmas will be a retail train-wreck this year.”

Earlier this week, Beemer told Reuters that U.S. consumers are still cautious about eating at restaurants and are not planning to loosen the purse strings for holiday spending this year despite signs the economy is improving.

“Everybody wants the recession to be over, but nobody has told the consumer,” Beemer told Reuters.

According to the survey released on Thursday, more than three quarters of families are trying to cut back on how much they are spending.  The average amount that American consumers are cutting out of their monthly spending is $191.11, the highest figure ever recorded for spending cuts in 13 years of ARG Consumer Mind Reader surveys.

Of consumers cutting back, 60.1 percent said they have accepted this new, lower spending level — even when the economic situation improves and they could afford to spend more. 

Also in the basket:

New normal? U.S. consumers coming back cautiously

Pier 1 posts smaller-than-expected loss on cost cuts

Dan Brown novel breaks one-day sales records

Gowns go with the flow on New York fashion runways

Fashion Houses Forced to Test Radical Ideas (WSJ)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out hopeful signs that the recession may be abating.

While recent reports showed slumping sales at many big-box retailers, there are other signs that the economy may be bottoming.

U.S. retail sales rose in May and the number of workers who filed new applications for jobless benefits last week fell for the fourth straight week.

The Commerce Department today reported that U.S. retail sales rose 0.5 percent in May, thanks partly to gasoline sales that jumped 3.6 percent. Meanwhile, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell to their lowest levels since Jan. 24.

Discount retailer Target has increased its quarterly dividend, Clorox did the same while also affirming its 2010 profit outlook and financial targets for 2013, and Del Monte posted far stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings and provided a better-than-expected 2010 forecast.

Not all the news has been hopeful, however.

While last month’s U.S. foreclosure activity ebbed from April’s record high, homeowners were still struggling to keep up with house payments and May foreclosure filings were the third-highest on record.

Unemployment is at its highest level since July 1983. Some economists are talking about a “jobless recovery”, gas prices are rising and spiking mortgage rates are cooling demand for new home loans.

The weak economy has led to haggling in some unexpected places – namely  Tiffany – and forced other exclusive brands like Juicy Couture and Louis Vuitton to join the retail hoi polloi in trolling online for sales via Facebook and Twitter.

Also in the Basket:

Stimulus cash brings hope to poor U.S. youth

Jamba CEO eyes long-term growth, menu expansion

Lululemon posts lower profit, sees flat quarter

Look Who’s Shopping Goodwill (New York Times)

Restaurants Take Trip to Store (Wall Street Journal)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out more bad news in the retail sector.

U.S. retail sales slumped for the second straight month, coming in weaker than analysts had expected due to sluggish gasoline and electronic goods purchases. Meanwhile, U.S. foreclosure activity in April jumped to a record high, further pressuring home prices and making a recovery tougher.

Fashion company Liz Claiborne posted a deeper-than-expected quarterly loss as retail sales remained weak in the recession. The owner of Juicy Couture, Kate Spade, Lucky Brand and Mexx labels is cutting jobs, scaling back expansion and offering more lower priced items to combat the slowdown.

Meanwhile, General Growth chose a company to provide its bankruptcy financing. The No. 2 U.S. mall owner filed for bankruptcy in April when it could not refinance its maturing loans due to tightness in the credit markets.

Even overseas, retailers in emerging economies are opening special shops for the poor as the recession squeezes the fledgling middle classes.

Some companies are benefiting from the consumer cutbacks, however, as General Mills, a maker of cereal, yogurt and soup, said it expects consumers who have been eating more meals at home to keep doing it even after the economy recovers.

And consumers obviously love their soft drinks as Dr Pepper Snapple reported a higher-than-expected quarterly profit on demand for value-priced drinks.

Also in the basket:

AnnTaylor sees 1st-qtr better than Wall St view

Macy’s posts wider quarterly net loss

When ‘Local’ Makes It Big (New York Times)

Is ‘Made in the U.S.A.’ Enough? (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out the lackluster results that are expected for U.S. retailers.

Excluding the 3 percent gain forecast for Wal-Mart, March retail sales are expected to fall 4.7 percent, matching the results in February.  Value retailers like Wal-Mart seem to be the only area holding up in the recession.

“Consumers are under significant pressure and we don’t anticipate that changing any time soon,” Morningstar analyst Brady Lemos said. “We, like most analysts, have a pretty pessimistic view for the foreseeable future, unfortunately.”

Not helping matters, Credit Suisse analyst Paul Lejuez pointed out in a research note to clients, was the shift of the Easter holiday into April this year.

Home furnishings retailer Pier 1 got things off to the expected slow start by posting a quarterly loss compared with a profit a year ago.

Investors are buying, however, as the Standard & Poor’s Retail Index is up about 31 percent since March 5. That compares with increases of 22 and 21 percent, respectively, for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones industrial average.

That optimism is reflected in the latest polling, where the New York Times/CBS found 34 percent of respondents felt the U.S. economy was getting worse, down from 54 percent just before President Barack Obama took office. The poll also found 20 percent of Americans now think the economy is getting better, up from 7 percent in mid-January.

Stay tuned.  We’ll see what happens when retailers report March same-store sales later this week.

Also in the basket:

Old Navy tries to right ship in topsy-turvy market

Shoppers prefer small grocers over Wal-Mart-poll 

Setton Pistachio expands pistachio recall

Europe’s Luxury Players Get Personal (WWD, subscription required)

(Reuters photo)

Check out the latest, somewhat confusing, figures on consumer spending.

The Commerce Department said U.S. consumer spending increased 0.2 percent in February, in line with market expectations, after rising 1 percent in January. That makes two straight months of gains.

However, after adjusting for inflation, consumer spending in February fell 0.2 percent.

The data also showed that incomes fell by 0.2 percent after January’s revised 0.2 percent rise. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast incomes to fall 0.1 percent.

So is this good news or bad news about the state of the consumer?

Here is what Robert Blake, senior currency strategist at State Street Global Markets, had to say:

“There were some revisions to the prior month. In real terms, January was now even stronger than we first thought, but the February number in real terms was actually weaker. Net-net, we are looking at possible spending in the first quarter in real terms that was positive, possibly, a 1 percent gain…which would signal that the consumer has gone a long way to recover from the absolute calamity in the second half of last year when consumer spending dropped 4 percent at an annual rate. So it was a positive report.”

And here is a somewhat different take from David Sloan, an economist with 4Cast Ltd:

“Personal spending was reasonably strong with upward revisions but that was to be expected given the retail sales data we have already seen. The fact that personal spending has outpaced income in the last two months raises the question whether it can be sustained. I would not say we have seen a bottom, the economy is probably not declining as quickly as it was, but I think the economy is still declining. I think consumer spending could manage a marginal increase in the first quarter but I don’t think we can be confident there will be another increase in the second quarter — there was exaggerated weakness in the fourth quarter and we have seen a bit of a correction in the first quarter.”  

Also in the basket:

Finish Line quarterly profit tops Street view

J.C. Penney Seeks Recessionista Brides with OurWeddingDay.com  (The Dallas Morning News)

A Downturn Wraps a City in Hesitance (nytimes.com)

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out the benefit of lower fuel prices on consumer spending.

Wal-Mart Stores continues to stand out as consumers go for bargains in the recession. The top retailer led other chains with a better-than-expected 5.1 percent rise in sales at stores open at least a year in February, and announced it was boosting its dividend.

Relief from high gasoline prices is giving consumers more money to spend on discretionary items, Wal-Mart said.

Other retailers weren’t so lucky, with apparel and department store chains posting some of the biggest sales drops for February. While lower gas prices appear to be giving lower-end consumers a break, weak financial markets are still leading wealthier shoppers to pull back, hurting Saks and Nordstrom.

Also in the basket:

Mortgage delinquencies still rising

Blockbuster same-store sales up

Gymboree has bleak outlook

(Photo: Reuters)