Heaps of turkey, stuffing and cranberry sauce will induce a collective food coma on Thanksgiving, sending a majority Americans to their beds for a much-needed nap, if one is to believe a survey released on Thursday by coffee and doughnut chain Dunkin’ Donuts.

About 58 percent of the 500 Americans Dunkin’ Donuts surveyed this week predicted they would succumb to sleep during the holiday next week, according to the chain. Overeating will do that to you.

Unsurprisingly, more men than women are expected to nap, and the number of people jealous of those napping will overwhelmingly be women. But perhaps the fellas, exhausted from carving the turkey, just need to rest before settling in for all that football watching.

Helpfully, Dunkin’ Donuts stores will be open until 2:00pm on Thanksgiving, selling coffee to caffeinate the masses, and maybe keep some of the guys out of the doghouse during the year’s biggest holiday.

(PHOTO: Reuters)

Thanksgiving is a week away, let’s talk turkey.

It’s time to defrost your bird, says Mary Clingman, director of the Butterball Turkey Talk-Line (1-800-BUTTERBALL).

Clingman and her fellow Turkey talk specialists field about 100,000 panicked calls from home cooks each year and have dubbed this Thursday ”national thaw day.”

To avoid a “turkey-cicle” Butterball competitor Foster Farms (1-800-255-7227) suggests that cooks allow two days to defrost a 12-lb bird in the refigerator and about five days for a turkey twice that size.

Retailers like Wal-Mart are using inexpensive turkey and fixins’ to lure shoppers at a time when the sluggish national economy and still rising unemployment is preventing some cooks from going all out on Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, some frugalistas are planning potlucks or other arrangements that help share the cost of the meal.

Here are some other tips from the folks at the turkey helplines: 

*Make sure your oven is big enough for your bird

*Check for giblets – the organs and other bits often found in a bag inside the bird

*Use a meat thermometer

*To avoid setting yourself on fire while frying your turkey, turn off the flame while you lower the turkey into the oil

(Photo/Reuters)

Check out consumers stepping up their online bargain hunting ahead of the holiday shopping rush.

According to Hitwise, searches for retailer promo codes rose 19 percent last week compared with 2008.

Those numbers should rise headed into “Cyber Monday” - the Monday after Thanksgiving when retailers shift from in-store to online promotions.

Last year, Hitwise said searches on a portfolio of search terms for specific retailers (i.e. ‘target coupons’, ‘target coupon codes’ and ‘target free shipping code’) peaked during the week of Cyber Monday, up 76 percent from 2007.

So who is doing this searching? Hitwise looked at the demographics of online bargain hunters in the 8 weeks ending Dec. 27, 2008. It found the split is even for male and female searchers. Just over half of the searchers were between the ages of 25 to 44, and Hitwise said the younger searchers, aged 25 to 34, were more likely to search for retailer coupons than the rest of the online population.

It also found the greatest share of searches are from those making between $30,000-$60,000 and $60,000-$100,000.

Also in the basket:

Dollar General IPO prices at low end, rue21 above

Kraft seen saving Cadbury sweetener for end-game

Abercrombie & Fitch profit higher than expected

JC Penney Q3 profit falls, shares up on forecast

Nordstrom profit below Street view, shares fall

(Photo: Reuters)

Lean inventory may be the secret weapon that retailers are depending on to survive the holiday season with earnings intact.

But consumers don’t exactly seem to be quaking in their boots at the prospects of finding empty racks this Christmas season.

According to the ICSC, with 18 days until Black Friday and 46 shopping days until Christmas, the consumer appears “unfazed” by reports of retailers running low on inventory.

The ICSC and Goldman Sachs’ 2009 Holiday Spending Survey found that 81 percent of consumers said lean inventories are not motivating them to shop earlier than in past seasons.

One culprit behind the nonchalance?  Gift cards.

According to the survey, 48 percent of holiday shoppers said that if they can not find the gift item they are looking for, they will buy a gift card.

“It is surprising that consumers are not willing to shop early for holiday gifts to get the best selection,” said Michael Niemira, ICSC’s chief economist.  “Bargains seemingly may matter more than selection for the consumer, which is why more consumers this year than in any recent time plan to shop on the day after Thanksgiving (16%) —which now should be dubbed Bargain Friday.”

(Photo: Reuters)

Check out a survey showing that younger U.S. consumers are trimming travel plans as well as turkeys during Thanksgiving.
    
More young professionals (37 percent) are adjusting their Thanksgiving travel and spending plans than the affluent and general population (both 30 percent), according to a survey by American Express. Young professionals are defined as less than 30 years old, having a college degree and a minimum annual household income of $50,000.
    
The young guns also are pulling back in other areas:
 
* 11 percent of young professionals plan to drive instead of flying, compared to 7 percent of the general population and 6 percent of the affluent, who are defined as having a minimum annual household income of $100,000. 
    
* 8 percent of young pros plan to shorten their stay for the Thanksgiving holiday weekend, compared to the affluent and general population (both 3 percent). 
 
* 7 percent of young pros will use rewards points, miles and special offers to offset the cost, versus 4 percent of the affluent and 3 percent of the general population.
    
Overall, American Express found 30 percent of U.S. consumers plan to adjust this year’s travel plans for Thanksgiving — historically one of the busiest travel days of the year — but only 21 percent expect those expenses to decline from last year.
    
Those who are changing their plans said they will rely more on travel by car, stay for a shorter time and cash in rewards to help pay for holiday trips as they become more selective amid the high unemployment and soft housing market.

However, in a positive sign, sales at U.S. retailers excluding vehicle sales rose for the second straight month in September, raising cautious optimism consumer spending could support the economic recovery.
    
The American Express survey also showed that the young professionals are cutting back for Halloween, when consumers spent $5.8 billion last year according to the National Retail Federation.
    
* 36 percent of young pros are buying less expensive costumes and decorations.  The rate is 16 percent among the affluent group and 15 percent among the general population. 

* 26 percent of young pros are making their own costumes or using hand-me-downs.  Again, that is higher than the 13 percent of affluent respondents and 11 percent of the general population. 
    
Looking ahead to the winter holiday season, sale prices are still king when it comes to early shoppers.  Eighty-two percent overall said they would be enticed by some sort of discount, with almost all of the young professionals (96 percent) and affluent (94 percent) agreeing.
    
It appears easier to entice the young set.  They would be willing to spend with discounts as low as 10 percent, according to American Express.  The affluent said it would take a discount of nearly 30 percent, on average, for them to buy. 
     
Also in the basket:

Pepsi, Anheuser to jointly buy goods, services

Kraft opens $50 mln Russian biscuit factory

Host Hotels beats estimates on cost cuts

Diageo’s Q1 sales dip 6 pct, sending shares lower 

Handbags and snoods help Burberry top forecasts

(Reuters photo)

Retailers say it can be difficult to measure their monthly sales results accurately on a year-over-year basis because of calendar shifts — sometimes a holiday falls in one month, boosting results, while the next year the holiday shifts into a different month, hurting results.

The most drastic case of this is usually seen in March and April, when the timing of the Easter holiday can help March sales and hurt April, or vice versa.

As monthly sales results came in today, numerous retailers, including Target, Saks, and Pacific Sunwear, said the timing of Thanksgiving (Nov 27 this year vs. Nov 22 last year) hurt their November results. The later Thanksgiving meant fewer busy post-Thanksgiving holiday shopping days in this year’s November period, they said, making sales figures look especially weak.

For instance, Target’s same-store sales fell more than 10 percent. It had warned that the calendar shift eliminated 7 holiday shopping days from November and pushed them into December, which would drag down November’s results. Saks and Pacific Sunwear also reported lower November same-store sales.

But the Thanksgiving shift was apparently not a big deal for industry leader Wal-Mart. While most retailers reported a drop in November same-store sales, Wal-Mart posted a stronger-than-expected 3.4 percent rise.

And in contrast to many others, Wal-Mart’s November monthly reporting period ended on Nov. 28 — Black Friday. That meant the discount behemoth had just one post-Thanksgiving day in November compared with most retailers whose November reporting periods ended on Nov 29 — giving them two supposedly busy post-Thanksgiving shopping days in the month.

Looks like low prices on food and toiletries are one way to trump a shifting calendar.

(Photo: Reuters/Nicole Maestri taken in a Wal-Mart store in Secaucus, NJ the week of Thanksgiving)

Black Friday has come and gone but what on earth happened at the cash registers over the Thanksgiving weekend? The data is trickling in, and so are the early critiques. (See our previous blogs: Treat Black Friday reports cautiously and Black Friday data spurs more questions than answers)

Here is a break down of the latest reports and what data is still to come:

National Retail Federation:

According its 2008 Black Friday Weekend survey, conducted by BIGresearch and published on Sunday, the NRF said more than 172 million shoppers visited stores and websites over Black Friday weekend (which includes Thursday, Friday, Saturday and projections for Sunday), up from 147 million shoppers last year. 

Shoppers spent an average of $372.57 this weekend, up 7.2 percent over last year’s $347.55. Total spending reached an estimated $41.0 billion, up from $34.6 billion a year ago.

The results came from a survey that polled 3,370 consumers from Nov. 27-29. The consumer poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.7 percent.

ShopperTrak: 

ShopperTrak RCT’s National Retail Sales Estimate found sales on Black Friday and Saturday rose 1.9 percent from 2007 – with each day posting total sales of $10.6 billion and $6.0 billion, respectively.

It said Saturday sales fell 0.8 percent compared with last year as most Black Friday promotions ended.  Sales on Saturday last year rose 5.4 percent over 2006, with $6.1 billion spent that day.   

“At this point, we anticipate sales levels will continue to slow this week as consumers will remain home, looking for additional holiday sales toward the end of the shortened 2008 season,” said Bill Martin, co-founder of ShopperTrak, in a statement on Monday.

ShopperTrak’s results are derived from statistics from the Commerce Department on sales of items like apparel, furniture, and electronics, combined with data it tracks on shopper traffic in stores.

SpendingPulse:

On Monday, SpendingPulse, a data service provided by MasterCard Advisors, said sales at U.S. specialty apparel retailers rose 1.6 percent on Friday and Saturday from a year earlier, but sales at electronics specialty retailers fell 14.3 percent. Luxury retailers saw a 2.4 percent increase,  while e-commerce sales rose 11.8 percent, it said. 

“We definitely think there was some pent-up demand that came to the front lines on Black Friday,” said SpendingPulse’s Michael McNamara. “Major discounting obviously attracted that.” 

SpendingPulse is a macroeconomic indicator that estimates U.S. retail sales across all payment forms, including cash and checks.

Data to come:

Dec. 3: SpendingPulse will release its full report on November monthly sales.

Dec. 3: ShopperTrak will release its complete report for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, in addition to sales and traffic data for the week ending Nov. 29.

Dec. 4: Major retail chains, like Wal-Mart, Gap and Kohl’s, will release their November monthly sales figures and are expected to comment on the Black Friday weekend.

(Photo\Reuters)

This Thanksgiving shopping weekend,  the weather may be one element not giving retailers a headache.

Retailers are geared up for the crucial three-day Thanksgiving shopping weekend, and many have already slashed prices to kick-start sales and rouse wary shoppers into spending mode.

While this holiday sales season could be the worst in years as declining home values, higher food prices, a credit crunch, and rising unemployment curtail consumer spending, weather tracking firm Planalytics has some good news for retailers — it predicts that most major population centers in North America should experience favorable weather conditions during the Thanksgiving weekend. 

In addition, the current cold weather in the Midwest and East Coast have put consumers into a holiday mindset earlier than last year, Planalytics said, boosting demand for seasonal items. 

“While, for some areas, snow flurries and precipitation events are likely over the weekend, they will reinforce to consumers that the holiday season has arrived,” Planalytics stated.

There could be some ”traffic limiting” events in the Midwest and Great Lakes as weather systems resulting in a wintry mix could keep people close to home, the firm said. But it said the Southeast should experience seasonal conditions, and the eastern half of North America should anticipate strong demand for seasonal items like scarves, hats, gloves, sweaters, skiwear, soups, hot beverages, and lip care. 

Planalytics also said the overall trend in the West supports favorable demand for seasonal apparel and consumables, such as food and household cleaning products.

Finally, a bright spot for retailers ahead of the Thanksgiving weekend! 

(Photo/Reuters)

Thanksgiving dinner promises to take a bigger bite of your wallet this year.

“Thanksgiving food prices are up about 6 percent compared to last year,” said Corinne Alexander, a Purdue University agricultural economist.

Alexander said grocery store prices are increasing at a pace of 7.6 percent, compared with restaurants’ rise of 4.5 percent.

Still, consumers planning to have a traditional Thanksgiving meal at home should find bargains on several holiday staples, including the symbol of the season: turkey.

The estimated wholesale price for turkey is 3 cents to 7 cents per pound higher than in 2007, driven by higher export demand for U.S. turkeys.

Still, Alexander said “turkey is a favorite loss leader item for grocery stores, where they’ll offer you a coupon or a discount to give you a really great price on turkey,” Alexander said.

Grocers typically offer virtually free turkey in hope that shoppers will pick up the remaining fixings for their meals at the same time.

Alexander said cranberries and sweet potatoes — also Thanksgiving staples — should be a bargain this year.

But she predicts that ham will be more expensive, even as other experts expect ample supplies and declining exports to push prices lower.

Pass the stuffing!

(Photo\Reuters)

Check out a stream of extremely sobering news from – and for – retailers.

This week, quarterly reports came in from Macy’s, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, JC Penney, Charlotte Russe, and Abercrombie & Fitch.

What did they all have in common? All reported profit drops and in the case of Macy’s and Charlotte Russe, quarterly losses.

Those dreary results followed a bankruptcy filing by Circuit City at the start of the week and then a large profit warning from competitor Best Buy.

Wal-Mart, the retailing behemoth, was able to post a nearly 10 percent rise in its quarterly earnings. But investors were somewhat taken aback when it provided a fourth-quarter earnings forecast that could possibly fall below Wall Street expectations, as it gets hit by a stronger U.S. dollar — which lowers the value of its international sales.

To cap it all off, government data showed on Friday that sales at U.S. retailers suffered a record decline in October. Sales slumped 2.8 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted $363.7 billion, the largest decline since the series began in 1992, the Commerce Department said. This compared with a revised 1.3 percent fall in September, previously reported as a 1.2 percent decrease.

It all comes just two weeks before retailers try to get consumers into their stores — and then actually spending money — during the Thanksgiving holiday shopping week. Get ready for a discount bonanza!

Also in the basket:

Wal-Mart CFO: strong dollar could lower cost of goods

Walmart.com CEO says sales grow despite downturn

Americans teetering on $14 trillion debt pile

(Photo: Reuters)