Senior Correspondent, Reuters Polls, Latin America, Brasilia
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Nov 5, 2015
via MacroScope

Jobs at risk as Latin America’s downturn deepens

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Millions of Latin Americans risk losing their jobs as a consequence of the region’s economic downturn. Job losses are already piling up in Brazil, mired in its worst recession in generations, and look increasingly likely in other countries, according to a research report by UBS.

Companies in Latin America usually take longer to lay off workers during a downturn than in other regions because of relatively tough labor rules. Costs of rehiring and training are high, which helps protect employees in the early stages of an economic slowdown. But signs that firms have no longer been able to keep their workers have mounted, meaning the wave of job losses that started in Brazil is set to spread across the region.

Nov 5, 2015

Brief respite for emerging market currencies before 2016 retreat: Reuters poll

JOHANNESBURG/BRASILIA (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies are likely to return to record lows in 2016, a Reuters poll predicted on Thursday, although a recent respite may last for a few more months if the Federal Reserve passes on a December interest rate rise, which many now expect.

Currencies in Brazil BRL=, Turkey TYR= and South Africa ZAR= were likely to show some stability this month, holding recent gains as investors wait for clearer signs of when that rate hike will be delivered.

Nov 4, 2015

Brazil annual inflation seen close to 10 percent in October

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s annual inflation rate probably approached 10 percent in October, the highest in 12 years, in another blow to consumers already grappling with job losses and a stronger dollar.

Consumer prices were seen rising 9.91 percent in the 12 months through October BRCPIY=ECI, up from 9.49 percent in September, according to the median of 22 forecasts for the benchmark IPCA index due out on Friday at 9 a.m.

Nov 4, 2015

Brazil industry output extends decline, down 10.9 percent year-on-year

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s industrial output fell for a fourth straight month in September as automakers, metal producers and other manufacturers were hit by a worsening recession, government data showed on Wednesday.

Industrial production fell a seasonally adjusted 1.3 percent in September from August BRIO=ECI, statistics agency IBGE said. The median estimate in a Reuters survey of 23 analysts forecast a 1.5 percent decline.

Oct 27, 2015

Brazil may deduct up to 113.5 bln reais from 2015 budget goal -senator

BRASILIA, Oct 27 (Reuters) – Brazilian lawmakers are
considering changing the 2015 budget law to allow for the
deduction of up to 113.5 billion reais ($29.05 billion) from the
government’s main fiscal target in an attempt to clear one of
the main political hurdles for the approval of key economic
measures in Congress.

The budgetary commission of Brazil’s Congress suggested to
Finance Minister Joaquim Levy and Planning Minister Nelson
Barbosa the idea of deducting all the revenue lost due to tax
exemptions this year.

Oct 22, 2015
via MacroScope

The threat of fiscal dominance in Brazil

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Brazil’s inflation is approaching 10 percent and yet the central bank has opted not to raise interest rates in a meeting on Wednesday. Not only that, it pushed back its target to 2017.

For many, the bank is staying put and tolerating a little more inflation because of the recession, the worst in decades.

Oct 20, 2015

Brazil’s inflation approaches 10 percent in mid-October on fuel prices

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s annual inflation rate probably neared 10 percent in mid-October after state-run oil company Petrobras raised fuel prices to adjust for a massive currency drop, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Consumer prices likely gained 9.79 percent in the 12 months through mid-October, the highest since December 2003, according to the median of 22 analysts’ estimates for the IPCA-15 index due out on Wednesday.

Oct 15, 2015

Latin America’s slump to extend into 2016 as Brazil sinks: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Most Latin American economies will only grow modestly next year as central banks raise interest rates and Brazil remains in recession, according to a Reuters poll that portrays a region increasingly vulnerable to a recent slowdown in global growth.

Banks and research firms downgraded their regional growth forecasts for another quarter and raised estimates for inflation as currencies such as the Brazilian real BRL= and the Colombian peso COP= plunged to record lows.

Oct 7, 2015

No end in sight for EM currency drop as economies flop: poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies will slide further in coming months as investors fret over a slowdown in the global economy and seek safer havens, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Forecasts for currencies including the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand suggested the greenback is likely to set new highs against major emerging currencies, despite the Federal Reserve’s hesitation over when to raise rates off zero.

Oct 7, 2015

No end in sight for EM currency drop as economies flop – Reuters poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies will slide further in coming months as investors fret over a slowdown in the global economy and seek safer havens, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Forecasts for currencies including the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand suggested the greenback is likely to set new highs against major emerging currencies, despite the Federal Reserve’s hesitation over when to raise rates off zero.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a senior correspondent for Reuters Polls in Brasilia, covering through market surveys and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      2007
      Languages:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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