Senior Correspondent, Reuters Polls, Latin America, Brasilia
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Aug 17, 2015

Brazil’s currency nears fair value after dramatic decline

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Aug 17 (Reuters) – The Brazilian real is
trading at or near fair value after losing one quarter of its
worth since Jan. 1, economists said, suggesting a possible
respite for one of the year’s most battered currencies.

Emerging market currencies in general have been sliding, and
unexpected domestic and international events could still cause
the real to overshoot toward its all-time low of 4 reais per
dollar. But even Brazil’s political crisis, one of the main
drags on the currency this year, does not look as bad as it did
a couple of weeks ago.

Aug 11, 2015

Brazil’s Senate, Rousseff to propose market-friendly agenda

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and leading senators plan to introduce an agenda of market-friendly proposals this week, in a move one senior official said was aimed at countering a revolt by lower chamber lawmakers.

The “Brazil Agenda” put forward by Senate President Renan Calheiros was discussed at a dinner Rousseff hosted for senators from her coalition on Monday as she looks to rekindle economic growth and overcome a major political crisis.

Aug 6, 2015

Brazil central bank warns new rate hikes if prices drift from target

BRASILIA, Aug 6 (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank will
remain vigilant in case inflation forecasts drift significantly
away from its target, it said on Thursday in a clear warning it
could raise interest rates again.

In the minutes of last week’s rate-setting meeting, the bank
said progress in its fight against inflation showed monetary
policy was going in the right direction. It has promised to
halve inflation next year.

Aug 5, 2015

Emerging FX rout to linger, volatility stymies carry trades: Reuters poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies are likely to set new lows in coming months as China scrambles to curb market volatility and the U.S. moves ever closer to raising interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade, a Reuters poll showed.

Latin America will probably take the hardest hit, with the Brazilian real weakening toward an all-time low of 4 per dollar, although currencies in Africa and Asia are also set for further turbulence as expectations firm for a Federal Reserve rate hike next month.

Jul 29, 2015

Poll: Brazil set to lose investment grade by end-2016

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil will probably lose its investment-grade status from more than one rating agency by end-2016, according to most market participants polled by Reuters after S&P revised the country’s outlook to negative on Tuesday.

Twenty-three of the 28 respondents believe Standard & Poor’s will downgrade Brazil’s credit rating to junk status by the end of next year, and 20 expect at least one other agency to follow suit.

Jul 24, 2015

Poll: Brazil to keep aggressive rate hikes as currency stumbles

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank will maintain its aggressive pace of rate hikes next week to prevent a recent plunge in the exchange rate from filtering through to inflation expectations, a majority of economists in a Reuters poll said on Friday.

Forty-two of 55 analysts surveyed predicted a 50 basis-point increase in the Selic overnight rate to 14.25 percent at the bank’s upcoming meeting on July 29. The remainder forecast a smaller increase, of 25 basis points, to 14 percent.

Jul 22, 2015

Brazil’s inflation slows in mid-July

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s inflation slowed in the month to mid-July as the economy headed into recession, potentially paving the way for a smaller interest rate hike by the central bank later this month.

Brazil’s IPCA-15 consumer price index BRIPCA=ECI rose 0.59 percent in the month to mid-July as expected by economists in a Reuters poll, down from 0.99 in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday.

Jul 8, 2015
via MacroScope

Commodity sell-off adds pressure on unpopular Latin American leaders


Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is fighting for political survival less than a year after being re-elected. Several reasons have been pointed exhaustively to explain how things got so bad in such a short period of time: chief among them are the burgeoning corruption scandal at state-run Petrobras and stubbornly high inflation, out of sync with the rest of the world.

If those weren’t enough, there is another one, often overlooked by pundits and politicians in Brasilia: in these days of falling commodity prices and disappointing growth, being president is a tough job in Latin America.

Jun 30, 2015

Brazil’s industrial downturn probably worsened in May

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Industrial output in Brazil probably fell in May at the quickest annual pace in nearly six years, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, adding to signs of a painful recession in Latin America’s largest economy.

Output from Brazilian factories and mines was seen shrinking by 10.2 percent from May 2014 BRIOY=ECI, the steepest drop since June 2009, according to the median forecast of 21 economists. Industrial output fell 7.6 percent in April versus a year earlier.

Jun 25, 2015

Brazil narrows 2017 inflation target range in nod to markets

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil on Thursday narrowed its inflation target band for 2017, the first change to the country’s official goal in 11 years in a bid to win over markets skeptical of the government’s commitment to curb persistently high inflation.

The national monetary council, made up of the finance and planning ministers and the central bank chief, kept the mid-point of the target at 4.5 percent in 2017, but set the tolerance band at 1.5 percentage points either way.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a senior correspondent for Reuters Polls in Brasilia, covering through market surveys and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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