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Mar 27, 2015

Brazil economy dodges recession in 2014, but trouble ahead

BRASILIA, March 27 (Reuters) – Brazil’s economy grew a
slightly better-than-expected 0.1 percent in 2014, but sliding
investment set the stage for what most observers expect will be
a painful recession this year.

Last year’s modest expansion, as published by the government
statistics agency on Friday, was still the worst performance for
Latin America’s largest economy since 2009 and was largely
shrugged off by investors focused on rising inflation and
unemployment, and President Dilma Rousseff’s political troubles.

Mar 26, 2015

Brazil signals another rate hike as inflation remains high

BRASILIA, March 26 (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank
signaled on Thursday it will continue to raise interest rates as
it expects inflation to remain too high next year despite a
contracting economy.

In its quarterly report, the bank raised its inflation
forecast to 7.9 percent in 2015, acknowledging it will surpass
the official target range of 2.5 percent to 6.5 percent for the
first time since 2003.

Mar 19, 2015
via MacroScope

Brazil’s job market hints at more painful downturn


The rapid erosion of Brazil’s job market is taking most economists by surprise, an analysis of Reuters Polls data shows, in a worrying sign that already-grim expectations for Latin America’s largest economy have not been pessimistic enough.

Economists overestimated official payroll data in four of the past five months, according to the surveys, failing to accurately predict the sharp decline in job creation. Brazil lost a net 47,228 payroll jobs in the 12 months through February, the worst performance in more than 15 years, government data showed on Tuesday.

Mar 19, 2015

Economic downturn pushes Brazilians into informal economy

BRASILIA, March 19 (Reuters) – Mounting job losses are
pushing more and more Brazilians into the informal economy as
self-employed workers, leaving them vulnerable to what could be
the country’s worst recession in 25 years.

Tens of thousands of people who lost full-time jobs are now
freelancing as bricklayers, truck drivers and maids to make ends
meet as they look for increasingly scarce jobs. In the process,
they often lose access to welfare benefits and face greater
credit restrictions.

Mar 17, 2015

Brazil’s annual inflation likely rose near 8 percent in mid-March

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s annual inflation rate probably approached 8 percent in mid-March as prospects of energy rationing pushed up electricity rates, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

Consumer prices BRIPCY=ECI likely rose 7.88 percent in the 12 months to mid-March, up from a 7.36 percent increase in mid-February, according to the median of 20 market forecasts for the IPCA-15 index due on Friday.

Mar 4, 2015

Emerging market currencies to remain under pressure: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies are set to sink further into decade or even record lows against the dollar as interest rates start rising off zero in the United States, a Reuters poll predicted on Wednesday.

A wide majority of FX strategists from all over the world said they are “confident” or “very confident” the dollar will extend its eight-month-long rally, already the most intense since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, despite trading sideways .DXY in February.

Mar 3, 2015

Brazil’s annual inflation likely hit 10-year high in February

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s annual inflation rate probably rose to the highest in nearly 10 years in February despite slumping economic growth, driven by an increase in fuel taxes, a Reuters poll of economists on Tuesday shows.

Inflation as measured by the benchmark IPCA index BRCPIY=ECI probably rose to 7.54 percent in the 12 months through February, the highest since May 2005 and far above the government’s 4.5 percent target, according to the median forecast of 24 economists polled by Reuters.

Mar 3, 2015
via MacroScope

Brazil’s shock therapy against inflation


Brazil’s central bank’s two-day policy meeting kicks off later on Tuesday with all bets placed on a fourth straight interest rate increase, despite growing consensus that the country is headed for its worst economic recession in 25 years.

The benchmark interest rate, currently at an already-high 12.25 percent, is expected by the wide majority of 48 economists polled by Reuters to reach the highest in six years at 12.75 percent. Other increases are in the pipeline, and some say the Selic rate could climb to as much as 13.75 percent this year.

Feb 27, 2015

Brazil seen extending rate hikes even as economy stalls: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank will raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points for a third straight time next week as inflation races far above the government’s target, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters.

Forty-three of 48 economists in the survey expect the central bank to raise its benchmark Selic rate on March 4 to 12.75 percent from 12.25 percent. The remaining five forecast a 25-point hike on worries that a bigger hike could further hurt Brazil’s economy.

Feb 23, 2015

Analysis: As states tighten belts, Brazil edges closer to recession

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian states and cities are scrambling to raise taxes and cut spending after years of excesses, nudging an already weak national economy closer to recession.

Growing budget deficits, the biggest in more than a decade, have prompted some states to temporarily suspend payments to suppliers and freeze billions of reais in services and infrastructure projects, from road maintenance to healthcare facilities.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a Reuters economics correspondent in Brasilia, covering through market polls and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy over the past few years. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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