Senior Correspondent, Reuters Polls, Latin America, Brasilia
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Jul 24, 2015

Poll: Brazil to keep aggressive rate hikes as currency stumbles

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank will maintain its aggressive pace of rate hikes next week to prevent a recent plunge in the exchange rate from filtering through to inflation expectations, a majority of economists in a Reuters poll said on Friday.

Forty-two of 55 analysts surveyed predicted a 50 basis-point increase in the Selic overnight rate to 14.25 percent at the bank’s upcoming meeting on July 29. The remainder forecast a smaller increase, of 25 basis points, to 14 percent.

Jul 22, 2015

Brazil’s inflation slows in mid-July

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s inflation slowed in the month to mid-July as the economy headed into recession, potentially paving the way for a smaller interest rate hike by the central bank later this month.

Brazil’s IPCA-15 consumer price index BRIPCA=ECI rose 0.59 percent in the month to mid-July as expected by economists in a Reuters poll, down from 0.99 in the previous month, government statistics agency IBGE said on Wednesday.

Jul 8, 2015
via MacroScope

Commodity sell-off adds pressure on unpopular Latin American leaders


Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff is fighting for political survival less than a year after being re-elected. Several reasons have been pointed exhaustively to explain how things got so bad in such a short period of time: chief among them are the burgeoning corruption scandal at state-run Petrobras and stubbornly high inflation, out of sync with the rest of the world.

If those weren’t enough, there is another one, often overlooked by pundits and politicians in Brasilia: in these days of falling commodity prices and disappointing growth, being president is a tough job in Latin America.

Jun 30, 2015

Brazil’s industrial downturn probably worsened in May

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Industrial output in Brazil probably fell in May at the quickest annual pace in nearly six years, a Reuters poll showed on Tuesday, adding to signs of a painful recession in Latin America’s largest economy.

Output from Brazilian factories and mines was seen shrinking by 10.2 percent from May 2014 BRIOY=ECI, the steepest drop since June 2009, according to the median forecast of 21 economists. Industrial output fell 7.6 percent in April versus a year earlier.

Jun 25, 2015

Brazil narrows 2017 inflation target range in nod to markets

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil on Thursday narrowed its inflation target band for 2017, the first change to the country’s official goal in 11 years in a bid to win over markets skeptical of the government’s commitment to curb persistently high inflation.

The national monetary council, made up of the finance and planning ministers and the central bank chief, kept the mid-point of the target at 4.5 percent in 2017, but set the tolerance band at 1.5 percentage points either way.

Jun 25, 2015

Brazil should set lower inflation target for 2017, economists urge: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil should stick to its inflation target next year and lower it in 2017 to rebuild its inflation-fighting credentials with weary markets, a wide majority of economists urged in a Reuters poll this week.

Brazil targets inflation for this and next year at 4.5 percent with a tolerance band of two percentage points, and is expected to announce later on Thursday its goal for 2017.

Jun 25, 2015

Brazil’s unemployment rate set to climb further through 2016: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s unemployment rate will probably climb further this year and next as the economy slumps, but is likely to stop short of hitting 10 percent, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

The unemployment rate in Latin America’s largest economy will probably hit 7.0 percent at the end of 2015 and finish 2016 at 8.0 percent, nearly double the record low of 4.3 percent at the end of 2014, according to the median forecast of 19 economists.

Jun 24, 2015

Brazil cenbank barely cuts 2016 inflation forecast, signals rate hikes

BRASILIA, June 24 (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank barely
cut its inflation forecast for next year despite signs of a
prolonged economic slump, signaling it could charge ahead with
one of the world’s boldest rate-hiking campaigns to anchor price

In its quarterly report released on Wednesday, the bank
lowered its 2016 inflation forecast to 4.8 percent from 4.9
percent previously. It sees annual inflation converging to the
4.5 percent center of the official target in the second quarter
of 2017.

Jun 19, 2015

Brazil’s downturn worsens as job losses mount and inflation climbs

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil lost jobs in May at an unprecedented pace for the month as economic activity tumbled and inflation soared beyond forecasts, government data showed on Friday, in further evidence of Latin America’s largest economy’s steep downturn.

Brazil’s economy shed a net 115,599 payroll jobs in May, the labor ministry said, the worst result for the month since the current data series began in 1992.

Jun 16, 2015
via MacroScope

Brazil’s relentless rate hikes shielding economy from inflation bout


Brazil’s relentless series of interest rates hikes is successfully lowering inflation expectations – despite recent signs to the contrary, from lottery to tomato prices.

Brazil’s inflation has quickened since the beginning of the year mostly because of increases in government-regulated prices such as electricity rates and gasoline. The inflation rate jumped yet again in May, approaching 8.5 percent, boosted by a steep rise in prices of fresh vegetables such as tomatoes and onions, highly unusual for this time of the year.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a senior correspondent for Reuters Polls in Brasilia, covering through market surveys and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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