Senior Correspondent, Reuters Polls, Latin America, Brasilia
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May 28, 2015

Brazil’s central bank faces growing concern on rate hikes

BRASILIA/RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank risks causing unnecessary damage to a struggling economy if it raises interest rates even more in coming weeks, a growing number of economists and business leaders warn.

Central bank chief Alexandre Tombini has already increased the benchmark Selic rate by 3.25 percentage points since October, taking it to a whopping 13.25 percent even though the economy is expected to shrink at least 1 percent this year.

May 21, 2015

Brazil economic activity tanks, unemployment surges as recession looms

SAO PAULO/BRASILIA, May 21 (Reuters) – Economic activity in
Brazil tumbled in the first quarter and unemployment climbed to
a near four-year high, adding to signs of a painful recession
that could worsen as President Dilma Rousseff clamps down on

The central bank said on Thursday its IBC-Br economic
activity index dropped 0.8 percent in the first quarter from the
last three months of 2014, after sliding more than expected in

May 15, 2015

Rousseff’s main ally eyes Brazil’s presidency in 2018

BRASILIA (Reuters) – For the last 20 years, Brazil’s largest political party has not once fielded a presidential candidate, instead content to partner with the eventual winner to retain a share of power. No longer, it appears.

The Brazil Democratic Movement Party (PMDB), which for many Brazilians epitomizes a self-serving political class living off pork barrel, is now pushing its own legislative agenda as it gears up to make a run for the presidency in 2018.

May 11, 2015
via MacroScope

High Brazil services inflation is hinting at even higher interest rates


Brazil’s monthly inflation rate eased below 1 percent for the first time this year in April and inflation expectations for 2016 have dropped for the first time in two and a half months.

That should be welcome news for an economy heading into recession but which is caught in a strangehold of relentlessly rising prices going completely against a global trend.

May 4, 2015

Brazil’s industrial output likely fell in March: Reuters poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Industrial output in Brazil probably fell in March for a second straight month on falling auto and steel production, increasing expectations that Latin America’s largest economy will tumble into a recession.

Output from Brazilian factories and mines probably shrank by a seasonally adjusted 0.7 percent in March BRIO=ECI from the previous month, when it fell 0.9 percent, according to the median forecast of 26 economists in a Reuters poll.

Apr 30, 2015
via MacroScope

Brazil’s central bank showing no mercy on rates


At 13.25 percent, Brazil’s towering interest rate looks totally out of line at first glance.

The economy is slipping into its worst recession in 25 years; falling prices are spooking central banks around the globe; rates in Latin American peer economies are much lower, below 5 percent.

Apr 28, 2015

Brazil’s jobless rate rises to 3-year high in March

BRASILIA, April 28 (Reuters) – Brazil’s jobless rate rose to
a three-year high in March and wages fell at the sharpest pace
in more than a decade, data showed on Tuesday, as the economy
headed into a likely recession.

The unemployment rate in Brazil’s six largest cities
rose to 6.2 percent in March from 5.9 percent in the
previous month – the highest in three years, statistics agency
IBGE said, and in line with expectations.

Apr 24, 2015

Brazil’s central bank to hike rates sharply next week

BRASILIA, April 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian interest rates are
set to rise sharply again next week, a Reuters poll showed on
Friday, as the central bank attempts to boost its
inflation-fighting credentials even as signs of a recession
continue to grow.

Forty-two of the 48 economists surveyed in the poll expect
policymakers to raise the benchmark Selic rate by
50 basis points to 13.25 percent on Wednesday, giving Latin
America’s largest economy one of the highest interest rates of
any major country.

Apr 15, 2015

Brazil inflation seen easing to 1 percent in month to mid-April

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s monthly inflation rate probably eased in mid-April, underpinning government hopes that price rises are peaking after hitting decade-highs, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Consumer prices BRIPCA=ECI likely rose 1 percent in the month to mid-April, down from an increase of 1.24 percent in mid-March, according to the median forecast of 27 economists.

Apr 15, 2015

Brazil’s economic activity grows unexpectedly in February

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian economic activity grew unexpectedly in February from the previous month, central bank data showed on Wednesday, but economists said the increase was too small to dispel forecasts for a recession this year in Latin America’s largest economy.

The Brazilian central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index BRIBC=ECI, a gauge of farming, industry and services activity, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.36 percent from January, topping market expectations for a drop of 0.2 percent.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a senior correspondent for Reuters Polls in Brasilia, covering through market surveys and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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