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Apr 24, 2015

Brazil’s central bank to hike rates sharply next week

BRASILIA, April 24 (Reuters) – Brazilian interest rates are
set to rise sharply again next week, a Reuters poll showed on
Friday, as the central bank attempts to boost its
inflation-fighting credentials even as signs of a recession
continue to grow.

Forty-two of the 48 economists surveyed in the poll expect
policymakers to raise the benchmark Selic rate by
50 basis points to 13.25 percent on Wednesday, giving Latin
America’s largest economy one of the highest interest rates of
any major country.

Apr 15, 2015

Brazil inflation seen easing to 1 percent in month to mid-April

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s monthly inflation rate probably eased in mid-April, underpinning government hopes that price rises are peaking after hitting decade-highs, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Consumer prices BRIPCA=ECI likely rose 1 percent in the month to mid-April, down from an increase of 1.24 percent in mid-March, according to the median forecast of 27 economists.

Apr 15, 2015

Brazil’s economic activity grows unexpectedly in February

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazilian economic activity grew unexpectedly in February from the previous month, central bank data showed on Wednesday, but economists said the increase was too small to dispel forecasts for a recession this year in Latin America’s largest economy.

The Brazilian central bank’s IBC-Br economic activity index BRIBC=ECI, a gauge of farming, industry and services activity, rose a seasonally adjusted 0.36 percent from January, topping market expectations for a drop of 0.2 percent.

Apr 14, 2015

Brazil cenbank nominee Volpon says fx near equilibrium

BRASILIA, April 14 (Reuters) – Tony Volpon, nominee to
Brazil’s central bank board, said on Tuesday he sees the local
real currency near or already at its equilibrium level
despite lingering uncertainties with the global economy.

In unusually frank comments by an official, Volpon, a former
economist with Nomura Securities, said the bank should also work
to lower the official inflation target range in the future.

Apr 9, 2015
via MacroScope

Emerging market stocks look more resilient to a Fed rate hike


Expectations may have been pushed to later this year for when the U.S. Federal Reserve will hike interest rates, but a repeat of another steep sell-off in emerging market stocks appears unlikely as much has already been priced in – and because of the stronger dollar.

Back in 2013, investors dumped emerging market stocks on expectations the Fed would start to roll back on its massive stimulus – in what was dubbed the “Taper Tantrum”.

Apr 9, 2015

Emerging FX unlikely to rebound on any Fed rate hesitation: poll

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies are unlikely to rebound from decade or record lows, despite growing evidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve could take more time to start raising interest rates, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.

Among the five most-traded currencies in Latin America, only the Mexican peso MXN= is expected to strengthen against the dollar over the next 12 months, boosted by long-held hopes that sweeping reforms will attract foreign investment.

Apr 7, 2015
via MacroScope

Brazil gets a vote of confidence


Shorting Brazil is no longer the favorite sport of analysts and traders, judging by recent market trends and comments.

After months of successive downgrades to Brazil’s once-promising economic outlook, local assets have rallied on growing optimism about the belt-tightening policies led by Finance Ministry Joaquim Levy.

Apr 1, 2015

Brazil prepared for another round of tax hikes as austerity steps miss

BRASILIA, March 31 (Reuters) – Brazil is prepared to raise
taxes, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said on Tuesday, to shore
up investor confidence and preserve its investment grade credit
rating as the country’s economy moves closer to recession.

Brazil hiked import, fuel and financial taxes in January to
raise 20.6 billion reais (US$7.7 billion) this year and balance
accounts. Despite the increases, some of which
took effect on Feb. 1, tax revenues have fallen behind

Mar 31, 2015

Brazil ready to raise taxes as austerity drive falls short

BRASILIA, March 31 (Reuters) – Brazil is ready to raise
taxes further, Finance Minister Joaquim Levy said on Tuesday,
warning that the country’s investment grade remains at risk as
the government’s fiscal results underperformed expectations.

Brazil posted a primary budget deficit of 2.3 billion reais
($721 million) in February, central bank data showed, against
analysts’ forecasts in a Reuters poll of a 1.5 billion reais
surplus, highlighting President Dilma Rousseff’s challenge in
pulling government finances out of the red.

Mar 27, 2015

Brazil economy dodges recession in 2014, but trouble ahead

BRASILIA, March 27 (Reuters) – Brazil’s economy grew a
slightly better-than-expected 0.1 percent in 2014, but sliding
investment set the stage for what most observers expect will be
a painful recession this year.

Last year’s modest expansion, as published by the government
statistics agency on Friday, was still the worst performance for
Latin America’s largest economy since 2009 and was largely
shrugged off by investors focused on rising inflation and
unemployment, and President Dilma Rousseff’s political troubles.

    • About Silvio

      "Silvio Cascione is a Reuters economics correspondent in Brasilia, covering through market polls and economic data the sharp slowdown of Brazil's economy over the past few years. He also leads polling across Latin America on several issues such as regional growth prospects, inflation, and foreign exchange rates."
      Joined Reuters:
      Portuguese, English, Spanish
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