Washington Extra – Bad weather and bad blood
WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) – It was never going to be a relaxing day trip, but the presidential visit to Afghanistan had something of a jinxed quality to it. First, President Barack Obama got stranded at Bagram Air Base by high winds. He addressed the troops and met commanders but was unable to make the helicopter trip into Kabul to visit his increasingly uncomfortable ally, Afghan President Hamid Karzai.
Then, the military tried to set up a secure video conference between the two men, only for technical difficulties to scupper that idea. Finally, they had to settle for a simple and apparently brief phone call. Critics may see symbolism in the failure of the American leader, at his highly fortified military encampment, to connect properly with his Afghan counterpart, so near and yet so far away in his presidential palace, a man whose distrust of Obama’s intentions and actions seems to be growing all the time.
The gulf between Obama and his fellow Democrats must also concern the president these days. Two more, largely symbolic Senate votes are expected on Saturday, forced by Dems increasingly concerned the White House is not going to back them up on tax cuts for the middle class only.
A disappointment for the president with the news that the deficit panel failed to muster the 14 votes required for its proposals to proceed to Congress, but not a disaster in that there was some bipartisan support.
Finally, amid the clouds, a burst of sunshine for Obama with the announcement that the United States and South Korea had reached a deal to save their free-trade agreement, a pact that has been years in the making. Now if only the rest of the news from the Korean peninsula was as good.
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Washington Extra – Go figure
It seems slightly surreal to see a concerted attempt to rally support behind a radical plan to bring the U.S. budget deficit down to a manageable level, while at the same time Republicans and Democrats haggle over the extent of tax cuts which will achieve exactly the opposite.
But deficit hawks will be pleased to see support growing for the final draft Simpson-Bowles deficit-cutting plan, a plan all but written off a few weeks ago. Two more votes were pledged today, bringing the number of commission members in favor to 9. The hurdle of 14 votes that would trigger congressional consideration still looks elusive, but many of the proposals that form the plan may have legs.
The atmosphere around the Bush-era tax cut talks was altogether less bipartisan today, with Democrats forcing a vote through the House to extend the cuts for the middle class only. Incoming House Speaker John Boehner dismissed the vote as a “political maneuver” and then used a bit of verbal maneuvering to call it “chicken crap,” without quite calling it that.
“I’m trying to catch my breath so I don’t refer to this maneuver going on today as chicken crap, alright?” he said. “But this is nonsense. alright? The election was one month ago. We’re 23 months from the next election and the political games have already started trying to set up the next election. We had an honest conversation at the White House about the challenges that we face to get out of here and to take care of what the American people expect of us. And to roll this vote out today really is just, it’s what you think I was going to say anyway.”
Elsewhere, the net is closing in on WikiLeaks controversial founder Julian Assange as Sweden tries to tie up a valid European arrest warrant in connection with alleged sex crimes. Nice blog from our correspondent Mark Hosenball today on the man brought in to plug future Wikileaks-style dumps of government secrets. Russell Travers is a veteran intelligence officer who ironically spent years trying to figure out how government agencies could more widely share sensitive information.
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Deficit-cutting plan advances in uphill climb
Washington Extra – Chicken and ducks
The wrangling continues over the Bush-era tax cuts. President Barack Obama said he was confident Democrats and Republicans could break the deadlock and reach a deal soon. But with time running out, there is something of a game of chicken being played by the two sides. Each is watching to see who blinks first, and with the economy still struggling, both know the stakes are high.
Texas Republican Congressman Jeb Hensarling warned of the risks of failure: “In a lame duck session, a lame duck Congress should not turn our economy into a dead duck economy.”
Let’s just hope they don’t duck the issue.
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Washington Extra – Pirate justice
The U.S. government would surely love to get its revenge on Julian Assange, and the Justice Department says a criminal investigation has already begun. But specialists in espionage law tell us that peculiarities of American law make it virtually impossible to bring a successful case against Assange, even if he were to set foot on U.S. soil. Evidence would be needed that defendants were in contact with representatives of a foreign power and intended to provide them with secrets, evidence that has not yet surfaced.
So although the leaked documents may make intelligence sharing harder in the future, and may make foreign governments reluctant to trust the U.S. with sensitive information, retribution could be tough.
Former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee took aim at whoever leaked the documents, saying they should be tried for treason and “executed.” Others might yearn for a bit of pirate justice, for both Assange and the leaker.
Talking of which, one gem from the leaked cables was the revelation that the world’s most controversial private security company had reconfigured a 183-foot boat into a pirate-hunting vessel. Blackwater had apparently offered its services to shipping companies seeking protection from Somali pirates, but failed to drum up any business.
They may not have caught any pirates but the New York Times reports that practices on-board the vessel were “little improved from the days of Blackbeard.” One former crew member, caught drinking during a port call to Jordan, was apparently “placed in irons”, which might sound appealing in an evil sort of way until you learn it amounted to being handcuffed to the towel rack. Meanwhile, I am officially banishing from my mind any thoughts of Dick Cheney, cutlass in hand, forcing Assange to walk the plank into a shark-infested sea.
More seriously, Republican leaders were almost purring today after emerging from their meeting with President Barack Obama, apparently confident they have the upper hand over the question of extending the tax cuts. Both sides said the meeting had been positive, but in the end there was little sign – yet — of common ground. Obama cut a much more defensive figure after the meeting, stressing the disagreements more than the idea of a possible bipartisan accord. The two sides have agreed to negotiate further, but even though they are to set up a working group, the maneuvering continues. Democrats are now promising a vote in the House on Thursday on just extending the cuts for the middle classes.
Finally, hats off to Fed board nominee Peter Diamond. Nominees for official office, especially those facing tough confirmation votes, usually go to ground, but Diamond is clearly cut from a different cloth. The Nobel laureate told Reuters Insider Television the U.S. economy needed more fiscal policy support but added that extending the Bush-era tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans would be the wrong medicine – a view that could cost him the support of some wavering Republicans.
Washington Extra – Diplomatic niceties
WASHINGTON, Nov 29 (Reuters) – To an outsider, diplomacy sometimes looks like an exercise in smiling and being nice to people who you secretly dislike or even scorn. The trouble is, these days your real feelings may not be a secret.
Perhaps it’s no surprise to discover that a U.S. diplomat found Britain’s Prince Andrew to be cocky and verging on rude, and maybe it doesn’t matter that much.
But you can’t help wondering how Russian President Dmitry Medvedev will feel about being called “Robin” to Vladimir Putin’s “Batman” and how German Chancellor Angela Merkel will react to being called “risk averse and rarely creative.”
Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi tried to laugh off being called a “feckless” and “vain” partier but one can’t help feeling the comments must have stung at a sensitive time for the embattled leader.
Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s relationship with the United States has already deteriorated dangerously but it cannot be helped by the certain knowledge his main foreign allies think he is “weak” and “easily swayed.”
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton tried to laugh off the diplomatic awkwardness: “I can tell you that in my conversations at least one of my counterparts said to me ‘Well don’t worry about it, you should see what we say about you’.”
Of course, there are much more serious implications than a few bruised egos and awkward diplomatic dances. It is worth remembering that the failure to stop the Sept. 11 attacks was blamed in part on a failure of intelligence sharing.
Washington Extra – Happy Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving! Washington Extra will return on Monday.
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U.S. vows unified response to North Korea, eyes restraint
The U.S. urged restraint following a North Korean artillery attack on South Korea and vowed to forge a “measured and unified” response with major powers including China.
For more of this story by Phil Stewart and Andrew Quinn, read here.
N.Korea pulls U.S. back to a “land of lousy options”
Washington Extra – Bad behavior
“We will not be drawn into rewarding North Korea for bad behavior,” State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley said today, after revelations that the world’s most reclusive state showed off its latest advances in uranium enrichment. “They frequently anticipate doing something outrageous or provocative and forcing us to jump through hoops as a result. We’re not going to buy into this cycle.”
Those are sound intentions, although analysts are already predicting the United States will find a way to restart six-party talks in the next six months or so if only as a containment strategy, despite the fact that North Korea appears completely unwilling to talk seriously about denuclearization.
Jack Pritchard, a former State Department official responsible for dealings with North Korea who visited the country earlier this month, said Kim Jong-il’s effort to build the credibility of his son and heir apparent, Kim Jong-un, meant “they can’t negotiate away what little leverage they have.”
In a very different arena, it was not a good day for the financial industry. If nearly causing another Great Depression, and then throwing tens or even hundreds of thousands of Americans out of their homes without properly verified paperwork wasn’t bad enough, the financial industry now finds itself enmeshed in a far-reaching insider trading scandal. None of this helps the industry’s lobbyists as they continue their fight to soften the provisions of the Dodd-Frank financial reform bill.
And the final rap on the knuckles today was delivered by Human Rights Watch, blaming the governments of Russia, China and the United States for working against a pact signed by 108 countries to ban cluster bombs that kill civilians long after conflicts. The United States, which reported last year that it had a stockpile of 800 million cluster sub-munitions, says it still needs them in some combat situations but has promised to ban them by 2018.
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Washington Extra – No Refuge
Not only does Barack Obama face a united and hostile Republican Party at home, he cannot easily take refuge in foreign policy in the second half of his term. From Afghanistan to Russia and the Middle East, from climate change to nuclear weapons, there are more problems than easy solutions out there.
But if all that wasn’t bad enough, the president is facing a few problems even keeping his fellow Democrats on side. As we report today, the Dems are in disarray about what to with the expiring tax cuts, and there is a distinct feeling of post-election disappointment with the president. As one aide told Reuters, many congressional Democrats felt they got their fingers burned for backing Obama’s healthcare plan and are wary of getting hurt again.
“Our guys aren’t sure what comes next,” the aide said. “Will Obama help them in 2012, or will just be focused on getting himself re-elected?”
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US seeks trust, not caps, in Cancun climate talks
The Obama administration, weakened by political setbacks, will likely limit its role in global climate talks this month to building trust with other big polluters rather than blazing an ambitious path on binding carbon emissions cuts. The Senate failed to pass a climate bill this summer and Republicans won control of the House, putting out of reach any big moves by President Obama to tackle global warming until at least 2013.
For more of this analysis by Timothy Gardner, read here.
Washington Extra – Lonely at the top
WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – Not only does Barack Obama face a united and hostile Republican Party at home, he cannot easily take refuge in foreign policy in the second half of his term. From Afghanistan to Russia and the Middle East, from climate change to nuclear weapons, there are more problems than easy solutions out there.
But if all that wasn’t bad enough, the president is facing a few problems even keeping his fellow Democrats on side. As we report today, the Dems are in disarray about what to with the expiring tax cuts, and there is a distinct feeling of post-election disappointment with the president. As one aide told Reuters, many congressional Democrats felt they got their fingers burned for backing Obama’s healthcare plan and are wary of getting hurt again.
“Our guys aren’t sure what comes next,” the aide said. “Will Obama help them in 2012, or will just be focused on getting himself re-elected?”
Washington Extra is a daily newsletter about politics and economics in Washington, sent to subscribers by email.
To be added to the mailing list on a complimentary basis, please email us at washingtonextra@thomsonreuters.com.
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US seeks trust, not caps, in Cancun climate talks
Washington Extra – A late start
It must be more than a little frustrating to win the Nobel Peace Prize for your best intentions — ridding the world of nuclear weapons – and then struggle to even get the START Treaty ratified this year. Not surprising, then, that President Barack Obama told his deputy to work “day and night” to get this thing through.
But whatever the temptation to throw a little egg on the president’s face, many security analysts still find it amazing to see Republicans blocking a treaty that the U.S. military so strongly backs. Welcome to bipartisan Washington, again, I guess.
Despite the uneven start to the week, Wednesday was not a bad day for Obama by any means.
The president was able to celebrate GM’s successful blockbuster initial public offering, by implication a victory for his controversial bailout of the automobile industry. The offering cut the government’s stake in the company to 26 percent from 61 percent and raised more than $20 billion, with investors betting on a positive future for the automaker which so nearly went out of business. Obama said taxpayers would end up recovering more from General Motors than his administration spent on the bailout, adding that a million jobs were saved and many more were now being created.
Obama and Vice President Joe Biden will travel to auto town Kokomo, Indiana next week to celebrate. The rescues of the banking and auto industries certainly didn’t make great politics in the midterm elections, but with much of the money coming back to the public purse, “bailout” might not be such a poisonous word in the 2012 campaign.
The other better news for the Democrats was the fact that they finally seemed to get their act together on taxes, after weeks of seeming to flounder without a clear strategy. Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi will first present the middle class tax cuts to the Senate and House respectively for a vote, before a separate vote on the cuts for wealthier Americans. They may not win the Senate vote, but at least Dems reckon they will be able to pin any failure to get a deal squarely on their rivals.
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