Chief Economics Correspondent, China
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May 1, 2011

China manufacturing growth slows in April, hit by tightening

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s manufacturing growth slowed in April, a survey showed on Sunday, suggesting that the government’s tightening efforts have weighed on the world’s second-largest economy more heavily than expected.

The official purchasing managers’ index for China fell to 52.9 in April from 53.4 in March, well shy of market forecasts for an increase to 54.0.

The survey, which is designed to provide a snapshot of conditions in China’s vast manufacturing sector, was largely in line with a separate PMI sponsored by HSBC published on Friday that clung near a seven-month low at 51.8 in April.

With inflation running at its fastest in nearly three years, China has taken a series of policy actions to rein in prices, raising interest rates and banks’ required reserves multiple times, ordering banks to lend less and speeding up the pace of currency appreciation.

On the positive side of the ledger, the official PMI showed that these steps have at least partially hit the mark. A sub-index measuring input prices fell to 66.2 in April, a seven-month low, from 68.3 in March.

But the survey also flashed worrying signals for the global economy, which has become increasingly reliant on Chinese demand as a source of growth with the United States, Europe and Japan still struggling to recover from the financial crisis.

“Overall, the PMI shows there is still a possibility that the Chinese economy may slow down, especially as falling demand growth leads to adjustments in inventories, increasing the possibility of slowing economic growth,” said Zhang Liqun, a government researcher.

Apr 12, 2011

Chinese clout seen in Brazil, Greece, Spain meetings

BEIJING, April 12 (Reuters) – China’s growing global economic footprint was on display on Tuesday, with a Greek minister saying Beijing will help his country overcome its debt crisis and a Brazilian official brandishing a big jet order from Chinese airlines.

A parade of foreign leaders are in China this week to attend a summit of BRICS countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa — and the Boao business forum on the southern Chinese island of Hainan.

Even before those get underway, a series of important bilateral meetings were set for Tuesday with Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff, Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero and Greek Investment Minister Harris Pamboukis all in Beijing.

The visits revealed the divergent paths of nations in the wake of the global financial crisis and China’s surge to prominence as a partner and a competitor.

Brazil has been a major beneficiary of China’s voracious appetite for commodities, but its manufacturers have grown alarmed at a wave of Chinese imports.

That will likely be on Rousseff’s mind when she pushes Beijing to buy more value-added goods from Brazil instead of just soaking up its commodities, whilst gently broaching the subject of an undervalued yuan. [ID:nN07149192].

In a deal that looked to be aimed at countering some of those worries among Brazilian manufacturers, Chinese airlines placed orders for 35 jets from Brazilian aircraft maker Embraer SA on Tuesday. [ID:nB9E7F100C]

Apr 7, 2011

China tightening cycle nears end, bubble risk just beginning

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s latest interest rate increase puts it near the end of a sustained campaign of monetary tightening, a shift in policy stance that will support economic growth this year but lay the groundwork for asset bubbles down the road.

The steady drip-drip of actions to tame inflation since October has succeeded in reining in money growth and slowing the upward momentum of price pressures.

Base effect dictates that consumer price inflation should fade quickly in the second half after reaching a forecast 32-month high of 5.2 percent in the year to March and possibly as high as 6 percent in June.

That will give officials the confidence to slowly take their feet off the monetary brakes, especially given their worries about the economic impact of Japan’s disaster and Europe’s debt crisis.

“Generally speaking, the inflation rate is stabilising. And that, together with some signs of growth moderation, means that they don’t need to tighten so much anymore,” said Ken Peng, an economist with Citigroup in Beijing.

So runaway price increases are not on the cards. The far bigger worry is that with inflation stabilising, officials will feel little urgency to raise interest rates much higher — and that low real rates for an extended period will greatly increase the risks of over-investment and a property bubble in China.

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Mar 29, 2011

Analysis – China G20 to go nowhere fast on world currency reform

BEIJING (Reuters) – A lack of cohesion on global monetary reform will be on display this week when the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies meets in China for a seminar, an event that was supposed to have been a starting point for Sino-French efforts to design a new global currency order.

At the start of its year-long G20 presidency, the French government thought it could count on China as a partner in spearheading change. Four months on, those hopes have been dashed by the reality of conflicting national interests and the enormity of the challenge in any serious attempt at reform.

Discussion topics at the seminar, which takes place on Thursday, still sound ambitious.

A first panel is set to look at shortcomings in the international monetary system. In a sign of the importance that France attaches to the event, President Nicolas Sarkozy will deliver the opening speech, though he will be the only head of state attending the meeting.

But all the signals from China are that it is a most reluctant host, its commitment to the cause of reform less extensive than France had believed.

Stuttering cooperation stems in part from a rancorous G20 meeting in France in February, when China fought hard against a plan to include exchange rates and currency reserves as indicators for identifying economic imbalances.

“China doesn’t think that there’s really much room for progress in the G20 under France. The government (Beijing) has become more realistic in pushing instead for yuan internationalisation … something it can achieve itself,” said Zhang Ming, an economist in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

Mar 29, 2011

Analysis – China G20 to go nowhere fast on currency reform

BEIJING (Reuters) – A lack of cohesion on global monetary reform will be on display this week when the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies meets in China for a seminar, an event that was supposed to have been a starting point for Sino-French efforts to design a new global currency order.

At the start of its year-long G20 presidency, the French government thought it could count on China as a partner in spearheading change. Four months on, those hopes have been dashed by the reality of conflicting national interests and the enormity of the challenge in any serious attempt at reform.

Discussion topics at the seminar, which takes place on Thursday, still sound ambitious.

A first panel is set to look at shortcomings in the international monetary system. In a sign of the importance that France attaches to the event, President Nicolas Sarkozy will deliver the opening speech, though he will be the only head of state attending the meeting.

But all the signals from China are that it is a most reluctant host, its commitment to the cause of reform less extensive than France had believed.

Stuttering cooperation stems in part from a rancorous G20 meeting in France in February, when China fought hard against a plan to include exchange rates and currency reserves as indicators for identifying economic imbalances.

“China doesn’t think that there’s really much room for progress in the G20 under France. The government (Beijing) has become more realistic in pushing instead for yuan internationalisation … something it can achieve itself,” said Zhang Ming, an economist in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

Mar 29, 2011

Analysis: China G20 to go nowhere fast on global currency reform

BEIJING (Reuters) – A lack of cohesion on global monetary reform will be on display this week when the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies meets in China for a seminar, an event that was supposed to have been a starting point for Sino-French efforts to design a new global currency order.

At the start of its year-long G20 presidency, the French government thought it could count on China as a partner in spearheading change. Four months on, those hopes have been dashed by the reality of conflicting national interests and the enormity of the challenge in any serious attempt at reform.

Discussion topics at the seminar, which takes place on Thursday, still sound ambitious.

A first panel is set to look at shortcomings in the international monetary system. In a sign of the importance that France attaches to the event, President Nicolas Sarkozy will be one of the heads of state in attendance, delivering the opening speech.

But all the signals from China are that it is a most reluctant host, its commitment to the cause of reform less extensive than France had believed.

Stuttering cooperation stems in part from a rancorous G20 meeting in France in February, when China fought hard against a plan to include exchange rates and currency reserves as indicators for identifying economic imbalances.

“China doesn’t think that there’s really much room for progress in the G20 under France. The government (Beijing) has become more realistic in pushing instead for yuan internationalization … something it can achieve itself,” said Zhang Ming, an economist in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

Mar 29, 2011

China G20 to go nowhere fast on global currency reform

BEIJING (Reuters) – A lack of cohesion on global monetary reform will be on display this week when the Group of 20 wealthy and developing economies meets in China for a seminar, an event that was supposed to have been a starting point for Sino-French efforts to design a new global currency order.

At the start of its year-long G20 presidency, the French government thought it could count on China as a partner in spearheading change. Four months on, those hopes have been dashed by the reality of conflicting national interests and the enormity of the challenge in any serious attempt at reform.

Discussion topics at the seminar, which takes place on Thursday, still sound ambitious.

A first panel is set to look at shortcomings in the international monetary system. In a sign of the importance that France attaches to the event, President Nicolas Sarkozy will be one of the heads of state in attendance, delivering the opening speech.

But all the signals from China are that it is a most reluctant host, its commitment to the cause of reform less extensive than France had believed.

Stuttering cooperation stems in part from a rancorous G20 meeting in France in February, when China fought hard against a plan to include exchange rates and currency reserves as indicators for identifying economic imbalances.

“China doesn’t think that there’s really much room for progress in the G20 under France. The government (Beijing) has become more realistic in pushing instead for yuan internationalisation … something it can achieve itself,” said Zhang Ming, an economist in the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank in Beijing.

Mar 28, 2011

China can meet 4 pct inflation target – official paper

BEIJING, March 28 (Reuters) – China will be able to cap inflation below the full-year target of a 4 percent average rise in prices, the People’s Daily said in a front-page editorial published on Monday.

As the main newspaper of the ruling Communist Party, the People’s Daily commentary reflects growing confidence in Beijing that the government has inflation under control, despite soaring global fuel prices.

The newspaper cited a number of factors as favorable to slowing the upward momentum of consumer prices, including an oversupply of industrial products, abundant grain stocks and large foreign currency reserves.

“The Party and the State Council are paying close attention to price stability, and we have reason to believe that this year’s inflation target can be reached, as long as we take active measures,” the commentary said.

The implementation of effective policies, including reserve requirement and interest rate increases, had also helped against inflation, the newspaper added.

Beijing has raised interest rates three times and bank reserve requirements six times since October. Consumer inflation steadied in February at 4.9 percent, although economists expect it to tick higher in coming months.

The newspaper also warned that the country could face rising risks from imported inflation, as reflected in mounting industrial production costs.

Mar 25, 2011

Global economic recovery marches on, prices soar in Europe

LONDON/BEIJING (Reuters) – The global economic recovery marched on this month, shrugging off a devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but Middle East turmoil is pushing prices higher, business surveys showed on Thursday.

The euro zone’s dominant service sector accelerated and while its factories saw solid but slower growth, their Chinese counterparts stepped up a gear, Purchasing Managers’ Indexes compiled by Markit found.

News from the United States was somewhat disappointing, with orders for long-lasting manufactured goods unexpectedly fell in February and business spending plans declined for a second straight month.

However, economists cautioned against reading too much into the report, which tends to be very volatile and was in stark contrast with surveys showing strong factory activity.

The euro zone’s composite PMI, a broad survey of the private sector conducted largely before a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan, dipped only slightly from February’s near five-year high to 57.5.

“We doubt that the negative effect of the Japanese disaster will have the potential to derail the economic recovery in the euro zone,” said Chiara Corsa at UniCredit.

The composite index is often used as a guide to growth and Markit said it pointed towards a first quarter euro zone expansion of 0.8 percent, with upside potential.

Mar 24, 2011

Recovery marches on, prices soar in Europe

LONDON/BEIJING, March 24 (Reuters) – The global economic recovery marched on this month, shrugging off a devastating earthquake and tsunami in Japan, but Middle East turmoil is pushing prices higher, business surveys showed on Thursday.

The euro zone’s dominant service sector accelerated and while its factories saw solid but slower growth their Chinese counterparts stepped up a gear, Purchasing Managers’ Indexes compiled by Markit found.

The 17-nation currency bloc’s composite PMI, a broad survey of the private sector conducted largely before a massive earthquake and tsunami devastated Japan, dipped only slightly from February’s near five-year high to 57.5. [EUR/PMIS]

“We doubt that the negative effect of the Japanese disaster will have the potential to derail the economic recovery in the euro zone,” said Chiara Corsa at UniCredit.

The composite index is often used as a guide to growth and Markit said it pointed towards a first quarter euro zone expansion of 0.8 percent, with upside potential.

Analysts polled by Reuters two weeks ago predicted first quarter growth of just 0.5 percent, slowing to 0.4 percent per quarter thereafter. EUGDPQ

In contrast, the Chinese economy grew more than 10 percent last year and its commerce ministry said that Japan’s earthquake and tsunami were likely to have only a limited, temporary impact on bilateral trade. [ID:nTOE72L00S]

    • About Simon

      "Simon has been chief economics correspondent for China since October 2010. He joined Reuters in 2006 and spent a year in London before being posted to Beijing. Simon has a B.A. from McGill University in Canada and a Master's from the University of Oxford."
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