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Two national market indexes that may not shine on Monday are those of Spain and the Netherlands, whose soccer teams are scheduled to meet in the World Cup’s championship game on Sunday.
Whichever country’s team loses can expect a drag on its market index of 49 basis points, said Wharton business school professor Alex Edmans. That is the amount that national stock indexes tend to be held back on average on the day after their country is eliminated from the World Cup, according to a paper he published in 2007 with two co-authors, Diego Garcia of the University of North Carolina and Oyvind Norli of the Norwegian School of Management.
In an interview with Reuters, Edmans said his predictions seem to be playing out this year as well, based at least on anecdotal observations. For instance, as an English citizen, Edmans noted ruefully that the FTSE 100 index fell in late June as England’s team played below expectations before being tossed out of the tournament by Germany on June 27 by a score of 4-1.
“As an England fan and an English shareholder I’ve been suffering both ways!” Edmans said.