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November 13th, 2009

Week Ten NFL Picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

denverWell, the Lineman was back on track last week with a satisfying 4-2 performance that should have been 5-1 (Come on, who would EVER pick the Bucs to do in the Pack). At first glance - and second - this looks the toughest test so far this season with compelling stats to go both ways on a number of games. But no sitting on the fence, so here we go.

Record: 29-25. Last week 4-2. Pick of the Week: 5-4

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6) (Line Broncos minus 3 1/2) I was not one of those getting all gushy about the Broncos 6-0 start to the season and two straight losses — albeit to tough opponents — have brought the Mile High boys back to earth.

But like everyone else I have been far less than impressed with the dysfunctional Redskins, who brought a bingo caller out of retirement to call plays.

The Redskins opened the season with the Tour of the NFL Dregs and still gave the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs their only wins of the season so far. Things get tough from here on in.

Denver ’s defence is for real and can still cause havoc but quarterback Kyle Orton has struggled and the offence is sputtering putting just 17 points on the board the last two games, scoring one touchdown.

But if the Bronco attack has stalled the Redskins is in neutral averaging just 12 points a game at home and will be without running Clinton Portis, who will miss this one with a concussion.

The Redskins are at home and catch Denver coming off a short week but with the Chargers putting on the heat in the AFC West this is where the Broncos get back on track.

Take the Broncos and give up the 3 1/2

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5) (Line Falcons minus 1 1/2) The Falcons have been on a bit of slide while the Panthers have been slowly clawing their way back up the NFC South standings after an 0-3 start.

Panthers QB Jake Delhomme still looks rattled but has at least stopped turning the ball over at every opportunity.

Both teams like to run the ball, the Panthers pounding it out behind DeAngelo Williams while Michael Turner has been a tank for the Falcons.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan can also go to the air with confidence throwing 13 TDs this season but every time Delhomme drops back to throw Panthers fans hold their breath and cover their eyes.

The Panthers have been sneaking up on the Falcons in the NFC South. Time to put some distance between them.

Falcons take flight, take Atlanta and give up the 1 1/2 points.

New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7) (Line Saints minus 13 1/2) The Rams have had a bye week to savour and celebrate their only win of the season against the Lions but the party is over. I hope they enjoyed it because it’s back to being an NFL punching bag this week as the high-flying Saints march into town.

The Rams have played just three teams with winning records and have been outscored 115-16 and now they must face New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees and the NFL’s most explosive offence.

Saints have the NFL’s top attack averaging 37.9 points a game and St. Louis the league’s worst at 9.6.

Let the fireworks begin.

Take the Saints and give up the 13 1/2 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) (Line Bengals plus 7 1/2) While the Patriots-Colts showdown is getting all the hype this NFC North matchup is as good as it gets.

This marquee matchup features two of the NFL’s nastiest defences and efficient offences.

Bengals Carson Palmer is finally looking like the quarterback we all wanted on our fantasy team a few years ago and Ben Roethlisberger just finds a way to “win baby”.

Rashard Mendenhall is supplying the running game the Steelers had been missing while the Bengals counter with rejuvenated Cedric Benson.

Palmer has wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who loves the big stage, as his favourite target while Big Ben chooses between Hines Ward and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes.

The Steelers come into this contest off a short week but the Super Bowl champions are always tough at home.

This one looks like a toss up to me, so the 7 1/2 points seem very generous.

Steelers could win, so could the Bengals - who cares.

Enjoy a great game and take Bengals and the 7 1/2.

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4) (Line Cowboys minus 2 1/2) The Cowboys are hot, red hot and the Pack are cold, ice cold.

A few weeks ago Dallas was all in a panic wondering whether Tony Romo has the right man to be at the controls of America ’s team. It appears so. Romo has been on roll and so have the Cowboys ringing up four impressive wins topped by a 20-16 decision over the Eagles last week to go top in the NFC East.

Jason Witten provides Romo with a reliable target while Miles Austin provides the deep threat averaging a league best 22.7 yards a catch. Who needs Terrell Owens anyway.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has dangerous targets in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, if he can stay on his feet long enough to find them.

Rodgers has been sacked a league high 37 times, including six last week in a shocking loss to the winless Buccaneers.

Rodgers can expect to spend much of Sunday running for his life or flat on his back as the Dallas pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware tees off on the Packers quarterback.

The Pack continue to suffer from a Brett Favre hangover.

Take the Cowboys and give up the 2 1/2.

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-6) (Line Titans minus 6 1/2) The Titans have found their mojo with Vince Young taking over quarterbacking chores from an ineffective Kerry Collins and leading them to back-to-back wins. But it has been punishing running back Chris Johnson showing the way, the NFL’s leading rusher averaging more than 119 yards a game.

With convincing wins over the 49ers and Jaguars the Titans have looked a little bit like the team that won 13 games last season and believe they are capable of late push for a playoff spot.

The Bills are coming off a bye week and expect to have injured quarterback Trent Edwards back calling the plays but wide receiver Terrell Owens is on the limp..

Forget the Bills, remember the Titans.

Take Tennessee and give up the 6 1/2

November 7th, 2009

Week Nine NFL Picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

schaubOkay, the first string is back calling the shots this week after Week 8 backup CBall got pounded 1-5 (ouch).

CBall’s fumbles have left Team Lineman (6-0 in the Lineman’s last start in Week 7 in case anyone forgot) perilously close to the .500 mark but the big guy is back and so is the momentum as we head into the second half the schedule.

Record: 25-34. Last week: 1-5. Pick of the Week: 4-4

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0) (Line Texans plus 9 1/2) Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has been red hot at the controls of the NFL’s top ranked passing game. But wait a second; who is that guy ahead of him leading the league in most yards passing and touchdown passes? Why it’s Texans quarterback Matt Schaub.

Texans monster wide receiver Andre Johnson is scary good and leads NFL with 697 yards on 44 catches but Manning’s favourite target Reggie Wayne has just eight yards less on 55 catches.

After a stuttering start to the season the Texans have won three straight and are 3-1 on the road so should not be intimidated coming into the “Big Oil Drum” Lucas Oil Stadium.

What is intimidating, however, is the Colts 13-1 record against the Texans and a surprisingly stingy defence that has surrendered just 13 points per game - tops in the league.

The Colts could remain unbeaten after Sunday but giving up 9 1/2 to a quality team finding its mojo is just too much.

Take the Texans and the 9 1/2.

Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0) (Line Panthers plus 14 1/2) Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme went off the rails tossing five interceptions in a playoff loss to the Cardinals to end last season and has had problems getting back on track ever since.

After a 0-3 start, the Panthers have displayed some bite with three wins in their last four games but none have come against the type of quality opponent they will face on Sunday.

The Saints high-flying offence led by quarterback Drew Brees can score at will averaging a league best 39 points and 428 yards per game.

The New Orleans defence also knows how to find the end zone returning five interceptions for TDs — not good news for Delhomme who has been a turnover machine tossing 13 picks against just five touchdowns.

But Delhomme, a Louisiana native and former Saints backup, is 6-0 on visits to the Big Easy and is coming off his first turnover free game of the season with last week’s win over Arizona.

The Panthers also catch the Saints coming off a short week following a tough Monday night win over Atlanta.

Brees will be wary of a Panthers top ranked pass defence and defensive end Julius Peppers is a beast with six sacks in last four games.

The Saints march on but giving up two touchdowns is too much.

Take the Panthers and the 14 1/2.

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) (Line Packers minus 9 1/2) Tampa Bay will wear their vintage 1976 popsicle orange jerseys on Sunday which are sure to bring back memories of the bad old days of when the Bucs were the worst team in the NFL.

Oh wait, the winless Bucs are the worst team in the NFL…

Now that the Brett Favre homecoming circus is behind them, the Packers can focus all their attention on locking up an NFL wildcard spot.

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s top rated QB but the Packers have had problems protecting their quarterback, who has been sacked a league high 31 times.

That however, should not be a concern against the Buccaneers, who couldn’t get to the passer with a road map.

Buccaneers are already onto their third quarterback this season handing rookie Josh Freeman the start.

The Pack enjoy a weekend in the sun.

Take Green Bay and give up the 9 1/2.

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5) (Line Seahawks minus-9 1/2) The beat up Seahawks have just two wins this season but both have been home blowouts, 41-0 over the Jaguars and 28-0 against the Rams.

The Lions make the long trip west to hostile Qwest Field where they have not won since 1999.

For the second consecutive season the Seahawks have been undone by injuries with a dozen starters missing one game or more but have more than enough manpower to handle the toothless Lions, who got dumped by winless St. Louis last week.

Despite having just two wins the Seahawks will be motivated as they remain very much in the hunt for a playoff spot in the weak NFC West sitting just two back of the front-running Cardinals.

Take the Seahawks and surrender the 9 1/2.

Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4) (Line 49ers minus 3 1/2) After a strong start to the season the 49ers have dropped three straight and need a win to keep the pressure on the NFC West leading Cards.

San Fran’s last two defeats to the Colts and Texans were by a combined seven points and this week return to Candlestick Park for their first home game in almost a month.

The NFL’s best team a year ago, the Titans finally got their first win last week over the Jaguars benching aging QB Kerry Collins in favour of Vince Young.

The running game is likely to provide the key to victory in this one with Titans Chris Johnson, who rushed for a franchise-record 228 yards against the Jaguars, going toe-to-toe against 49ers Frank Gore.

But San Francisco has the NFL’s second ranked rush defence yielding just over 84.9 yards a game.

Young and Johnson have provided the Titans with some spark but 49ers coach inspirational Mike Singletary will have his team even more fired up for this one.

Take the 49ers and give up the 3 1/2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1) (Line Steelers minus 2 1/2) The well rested Steelers come off a bye week while the Broncos come into the Monday Nighter off their first loss of season.

The Broncos, who surprised everyone with their 6-0 start, came back to earth with thud falling to the Ravens and now face another tough challenge with the Super Bowl champions coming into Mile High riding a four game win streak.

The Steelers wildman safety Troy Polamalu is back to full fitness and creating havoc and all sorts of headaches for Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger can also expect a tough night going against a Broncos defence that has allowed just over 13 points a game and has 23 sacks.

But the Steelers tame the Broncos, who drop their second in a row.

Take the Steelers and give up the 2 1/2.

PHOTO: Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (8) looks down on the Tennessee Titans during second half of their NFL football game at LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee September 20, 2009. REUTERS/M. J. Masotti Jr.

October 17th, 2009

Week Six NFL picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

Panthers quarterback Delhomme celebrates after throwing touchdown pass to Rosario during NFL game in ArlingtonAfter a Week Four meltdown the Lineman is back heading in the right direction going 3-3 in Week Five. We are still stinging after missing Pick of the Week by 1/2 point but we can back to .500 this week with the Panthers.

Record: 16-14. Last week 3-3

Pick of the Week: 2-3

 

PICK OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-5)

(Line Panthers minus 3 1/2)

OK, this certainly will not be the Game of the Week if you are looking for entertainment value but the Panthers are ready to post back-to-back wins and jump back into the playoff chase in the uber-tough NFC South. After opening the season 0-3 the Panthers hit Easy Street with games against, Redskins, Bucs and next week the woeful Buffalo Bills with a chance to get back to .500.

 

Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme still has not found his mojo (three touchdown passes and eight interceptions) but is 8-2 against the leaky Buccaneers, who are on a 0-9 slide. Hard to tell if these Panthers have enough bite to claw into playoff contention but will pounce on defenceless Bucs.

Take Panthers give up the 3 1/2 points.

 

Cleveland Browns (1-4) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2)

(Line Steelers minus 14 1/2)

The Super Bowl champ Steelers have had a few problems this season, the Browns have had a lot. Cleveland QB Derek Anderson completed two of his 17 pass attempts as the Browns beat the Buffalo Bills 6-3 last week in what was candidate for worst game of the decade. Heeeeee’s baaaaaaackkkk, wildman safety Troy Polamalu is set to return to the Steelers D, meaning, scary stuff as Halloween comes early for Anderson who can expect a blitz-fest. Steelers have had problems closing out games being outscored 55-13 in the fourth quarter. Won’t matter here since by fourth quarter this game will be locked up. Pittsburgh has won 11 straight against the Browns.

Make that 12.

Take the Steelers give up the 14 1/2 points.

 

Kansas City Chiefs (0-5) at Washington Redskins (2-3)

(Line Redskins minus 6 1/2)

The Redskins wrap up their NFL Sad Sack Tour by hosting the winless Chiefs. For the sixth straight week the Redskins face an opponent who has not won a game. Ok opening week against the Giants nobody had a win but the Redskins next five contest have come against teams that have managed just two victories total. The Chiefs schedule meanwhile has not been as soft facing Philadelphia, Giants and showing plenty of fight last week in a close loss to the Cowboys. The Kansas defence has yielded more than 400 yards a game but Jason Campbell isn’t Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb or even Tony Romo.

The scouting report from CBall, our man in the U.S. capital, says the Skins are in shambles, the players griping about owner Dan Snyder and coach Jim Zorn is on the hot seat.

Good enough for me.

Redskins Tour ends here.

Take the Chiefs and the 6 1/2 points

 

Philadelphia Eagles (3-1) at Oakland Raiders (1-4)

(Line Eagles minus 13 1/2)

Donovan McNabb and the Eagles are healthy and on a roll and the Raiders are a train wreck. The Cable Guy (head coach Tom Cable) could be headed to jail for punching out his assistant coach and quarterback JaMarcus Russell seems determined to prove he is the worst first overall pick in NFL history. There are questions if the Raiders might even win a game in the UFL. The Raiders rolled over and played dead early last week in a 44-7 drubbing by the Giants while the Eagles took flight against the Bucs.

There was a time when opposing teams dreaded playing in the Black Hole, now that is exactly where Raiders are headed.

Take the Eagles and happily give up the 13 1/2 points.

 

Buffalo Bills (1-4) at New York Jets (3-2)

(Line Jets minus 9 1/2)

After a spectacular 3-0 start the Jets have run into some heavy turbulence the last two weeks with back-to-back losses to New Orleans and Miami. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, hailed as the second coming of Broadway Joe Namath, has been exposed — making rookie mistakes. The Jets come off a short week but should be eager to make up for disappointing loss in Miami. Buffalo has scored just 20 points in last three games and defence riddled with injuries. Browns completed just two passes last week but still walked away from Orchard Park with the win. Do you remember Terrell Owens, apparently Bills quarterback Trent Edwards doesn’t. Bills opened their wallets to bring in the flashy receiver who has caught just 12 passes for 202 yards.. Owens expects to get that many looks in a game. Another loss and Bills head coach Dick Jauron could be hitting the unemployment line.

Time to pull out the want ads section, Dick.

Take the Jets and give up the 9 1/2 points.

 

Denver Broncos (5-0) at San Diego Chargers (2-2)

(Line Chargers minus 3 1/2)

I am still not convinced the Broncos are as good as their record and it seems neither are the bookies who have made the Chargers 3 1/2 point favourites. This is a must win game Chargers if they hope to keep the Broncos from galloping away with the AFC West division crown. The Chargers have had two weeks to prepare for this one and also have the advantage of playing at home while the Broncos will try to avoid a letdown after their big win over the Patriots last weekend at Mile High. Strong arm San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers has carried his team and oft-injured LaDainian Tomlinson needs a big game to prove he is still among the elite running backs. It won’t be easy, the Broncos defence is for real allowing just over eight points a game.

The Chargers have a history of coming up with the big win when they need and with the season not yet at the midway point this is about as big as it get. The Bolts also like the spotlight and they will have it in this Monday Night matchup. In last 11 prime time games the Chargers are 10-1 and Rivers is a sparkling 4-0 on Monday Nights.

Desperation and some Monday Night magic make Chargers the winners.

Take the Chargers give up the 3 1/2 points.

 

PHOTO: Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme celebrates after throwing a touchdown pass to teammate Dante Rosario during the first half of their NFL football game in Arlington, Texas September 28, 2009. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

October 10th, 2009

Panthers need to show their bite after Lineman takes a mauling

Posted by: Steve Keating

OUCH, the ol’Lineman took a pounding last time going 1-5 but Week Five is bounce back week.

As we race by the regular season quarter pole we are a tick above .500 but look for better in a week that features some big spreads.

Record: 13-11. Last week 1-5. Pick of the Week: 2-2

PICK OF THE WEEK

Washington Redskins (2-2) at Carolina Panthers (0-3) (Line Panthers minus 3 1/2)

The Panthers come off a bye week where they had plenty of time to digest a disappointing 0-3 start. Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme has been a turnover machine. Delhomme has plenty of weapons at his disposal in wide outs Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammad and running back DeAngelo Williams but must make better use of them. While Delhomme has looked shaky, Washington QB Jason Campbell hasn’t exactly been tearing up the league.

Redskins’ two wins have come over winless Rams and Buccaneers. The bye week came at an ideal time for the Panthers, who now look at a very appealing schedule starting with Redskins on Sunday followed by Tampa Bay and the Buffalo Bills who count one win between them. A home win Sunday and the Panthers will like their chances of getting to 3-3 and back in the playoff hunt.

Panthers show some bite. Take Panthers, give up the 3 1/2 points.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at New York Giants (4-0) (Line Giants minus-15 1/2 points)

Giants quarterback Eli Manning is on the limp but could beat the woeful Raiders on one foot and one hand tied behind is back. I always find it hard to lay 15 plus points but the Raiders offence has produced just nine points in the last two games. JaMarcus Russell should be anchored to the bench by now but Raiders refuse to admit they made a mistake using the number one overall pick in the 2007 draft on a quarterback who could not find an open receiver if they were joined at the hip.

Take the Giants, give up the 15.5.

New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0) (Line, Broncos plus-3 1/2)

This one is being billed as the teacher (Patriots head coach Bill Belichick) verses the student (Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels). The Broncos have been the season’s biggest surprise but are possibly the worst team in NFL history to go 4-0. Two of Broncos’ wins came against sad sack Raiders and Browns but they did look a different class beating Dallas last week. While Broncos offense is smoke and mirrors, defence looks legit surrendering just 26 points in four games. But after missing most of last season Pats QB Tom Brady is starting to find his comfort zone.

Interesting stat, Brady has won 10 straight October starts, throwing 31 touchdowns. New England is starting to take the look of a Super Bowl contender. Still there are questions surrounding both teams and this week should provide the answers.

Student gets schooled by teacher. Take the Patriots and give up the 3 1/2 points.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at the Philadelphia Eagles (2-1) (Line, Eagles minus-14 points)

Another team coming off a bye week and couldn’t have come at a better time for the banged up Eagles. Philly quarterback Donovan McNabb and running back Brian Westbrook rejoin an offence that is averaging more than 31 points a game. Bucs, who dream of being average, send out QB Josh Johnson to face those friendly Philly fans.

The Eagles take flight, Bucs sink. Take the Eagles, give up the 14 points.

Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4) (Line, Titans plus 3.5)

The Titans went 10-0 to start last season and will be 0-5 after Sunday. Colts QB Peyton Manning has been red hot, throwing over 300 yards in all four games. The Titans leaky secondary has given up more than 300 yards through the air in three-of-four games. Ummmm, that could be a problem for the Titans. Tennessee quarterback Kerry Collins has looked awful and calls for backup Vince Young are getting louder. The Colts have lost two of their last three in the Music City but no sour notes this week.

Forget the Titans. Take the Colts give up the 3 1/2.

New York Jets (3-1) at Miami Dolphins (1-3) (Line, Miami plus 1 1/2)

Jets’ Mark Sanchez looked like a rookie quarterback last week turning the ball over four times in a loss to the Saints. QB Chad Henne, taking over for injured Chad Pennington, looked good in his Miami debut leading the Dolphins past the Buffalo Bills for their first win. Sanchez will have a new target in Braylon Edwards, acquired in a trade with Cleveland last week. Jets defence has been solid but will be tested by the Miami wildcat offence and the running of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams.

Jets have won their last three visits to South Beach and their last four Monday night clashes with the New Yorkers.

Make it five straight. Take the Jets, give up the 1 1/2.

PHOTO: Dallas Cowboys nose tackle Jay Ratliff (rear) sacks Carolina Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme (17) during the second half of their NFL football game in Arlington, Texas September 28, 2009. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi