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November 21st, 2009

Week 11 NFL picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

Well, that was a bruising week but 2-4 still leaves the Lineman above .500.

After the last 2-4 we had a big bounce back week so that’s the game plan again.

I was going to start off by making the Miami Dolphins my Pick of the Week but since that game has been played, well that would be cheating (I think).

 

Anyway, I get the impression many of you think I would still make the wrong pick - even if the game had been played.

 

But the Lineman can take a hit and is looking for revenge this week — starting with Pick of the Week.

 

Record: 31-29. Last week 2-4

 

Pick of the Week: 5-5

 

PICK OF THE WEEK

 

San Diego Chargers (6-3) at Denver Broncos (6-3)

(Line Broncos plus 2 1/2)

 

San Diego Chargers quarterback Rivers rolls out of pocket to pass against the Philadelphia Eagles during their NFL football game in San DiegoBroncos let me down last week and as that ol’Who song goes, “We won’t get fooled again”. The Broncos, once running away with the AFC west after a 6-0 start, have lost three in a row and now must face a surging division rival who smells blood.

 

The problems are starting to pile up in the Mile High City and Broncos fast start has slowed to a crawl. Denver QB Kyle Orton is on the limp and if he is unable to play the starting assignment goes to Chris Simms, who was 3-of-13 for 13 after taking over against the Redskins last week.

 

The Chargers meanwhile have found their mojo racking up four straight wins, including back-to-back victories over the Giants and Eagles. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is having another strong year, running back LaDainian Tomlinson is shifting into high gear and the Chargers defence is starting to look like it means business.

 

That means trouble for Denver. Rocky Mountain meltdown continues.

 

Take the Chargers give up the 2 1/2 points.

 

Arizona Cardinals (6-3) at St. Louis Rams (1-8)

(Line Cardinals minus 9 1/2)

 

Cardinals QB Kurt Warner returns to the Big Top where he made his name as the ringmaster of the Greatest Show on Turf taking the Rams to the Super Bowl. But that was nearly a decade ago and now Warner returns to St. Louis calling the shots for another high powered offence. After an uneven start the Cardinals have won five of their last six and are starting to resemble the team that made it to the Super Bowl last year.

 

Poor Rams fan must be wondering what that have done to anger the NFL schedule Gods as yet another juggernaut rolls into St. Louis. The last three home games the Rams fans have watched the Brett Favre and the Vikings, Peyton Manning and the Colts and Drew Brees and the Saints beat up on their boys and this Sunday welcome the Cardinals, who have been one of the NFL’s hottest road teams this season (4-0).

 

The Rams have shown some grit in November. They beat the Lions early in the month to notch their only win and then threw a scare into the unbeaten Saints last week, hanging in there before falling 28-23.

 

The building momentum, however, will not be nearly enough to carry the Rams past the Cardinals who cannot let off the gas with the 49ers still within striking distance of the NFC west crown.

 

Take the Cardinals give up the 9 1/2.

 

Washington Redskins (3-6) at Dallas Cowboys (6-3)

(Line Cowboys minus 11 1/2)

 

Before a Lambeau meltdown last week Dallas was cruising along on a four game win streak and QB Tony Romo was once again the most popular Cowboy since John Wayne. But a loss to the Packers has seen things tighten up in the NFC East and the Cowboys return home this week to take on a rival that is showing signs of life with a win over the Broncos.

 

OK, the Redskins offence sucks, their play calling is done by a guy who was calling out bingo numbers a month ago and running back Clinton Portis is on the limp. But big rivalries have a way of making games interesting if not close and the Redskins have been tough on the road only once losing by more than 10 points.

 

Cowboys beat Indians but the Redskins cover.

 

Take the Redskins and the 11 1/2 points.

   

Indianapolis Colts (9-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-4)

(Line pick’em)

 

Baltimore Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis yells at the officials in the fourth quarter of their NFL football game against the New England Patriots in FoxboroughThis one puzzles me. At one end of the field you the unbeaten Colts and Peyton Manning who has thrown for 20 touchdowns and nearly 3,000 yards.

 

Manning scared Bill Belichick so badly last Sunday that he made the Patriots coach go for a fourth down gamble deep in his own end rather than put the ball back into the Colts quarterback’s hands. The Pats failed and Manning got the ball anyway and a touchdown giving Indy a big win. Nice trick. And guess what, the Colts also have the NFL’s top ranked defence allowing an average of just 15.8 yards a game.

 

Ok, I admit, Ray Lewis scares me but quarterback Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco has provided a few frights with his play this season as well. Ravens also come into the game off a short week and an could only manage a 16-0 win over the hapless Browns.

 

The Colts have won four road games by an average of 21 points and won their last six against the Ravens.

 

So what gives? Why is this a pick’em?

 

Odds makers must think this is a trap game and expect a let down from the mighty Colts.

 

No chance.

 

Take the Colts, who improve to 10-0.

 

Seattle Seahawks (3-6) at Minnesota Vikings (8-1)

(Line Vikings minus 10 1/2)

 

Vikings toyed with the Lions last week then cracked the whip. With every game Minnesota looks more-and-more like a Super Bowl threat while the Seahawks look more-and-more like seagulls. Quarterback Brett Favre and running back Adrian Peterson power a balance offence while Jared Allen has 10 sacks to lead an improving defence.

 

The banged up Seahawks have been inconsistent. QB Matt Hasselbeck is struggling with a sore shoulder and bruised ribs while running back Julius Jones has bruised lung. Seahawks still believe they have a shot at the playoffs but that slim hope ends this weekend.

 

Take the Vikings and give up the 10 1/2.

 

New Orleans Saints (9-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8)

(Line Saints minus 11 1/2)

 

The Saints looked like they slipped into cruise control last week doing just enough to beat the lowly Rams. Time for Drew Brees to get the league’s top offense (averaging 36.8 points a game) humming again and will get that opportunity against a Tampa defence that ranks second worst in the league giving up an average of more than 28 points a game.

 

The Saints defence leads the league in interceptions with 17 returning five four touchdowns but looked shaky against the Rams and must be better. Tampa Bay has shown some determination with rookie QB Josh Freeman at the controls but this is still a team that needs help.

 

Saints get it rolling again here.

 

Take the Saints give up the 11 1/2.

 

PHOTOS: Philip Rivers (TOP) by Mike Blake, Ray Lewis by Brian Snyder.

November 13th, 2009

Week Ten NFL Picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

denverWell, the Lineman was back on track last week with a satisfying 4-2 performance that should have been 5-1 (Come on, who would EVER pick the Bucs to do in the Pack). At first glance - and second - this looks the toughest test so far this season with compelling stats to go both ways on a number of games. But no sitting on the fence, so here we go.

Record: 29-25. Last week 4-2. Pick of the Week: 5-4

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Denver Broncos (6-2) at Washington Redskins (2-6) (Line Broncos minus 3 1/2) I was not one of those getting all gushy about the Broncos 6-0 start to the season and two straight losses — albeit to tough opponents — have brought the Mile High boys back to earth.

But like everyone else I have been far less than impressed with the dysfunctional Redskins, who brought a bingo caller out of retirement to call plays.

The Redskins opened the season with the Tour of the NFL Dregs and still gave the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs their only wins of the season so far. Things get tough from here on in.

Denver ’s defence is for real and can still cause havoc but quarterback Kyle Orton has struggled and the offence is sputtering putting just 17 points on the board the last two games, scoring one touchdown.

But if the Bronco attack has stalled the Redskins is in neutral averaging just 12 points a game at home and will be without running Clinton Portis, who will miss this one with a concussion.

The Redskins are at home and catch Denver coming off a short week but with the Chargers putting on the heat in the AFC West this is where the Broncos get back on track.

Take the Broncos and give up the 3 1/2

Atlanta Falcons (5-3) at Carolina Panthers (3-5) (Line Falcons minus 1 1/2) The Falcons have been on a bit of slide while the Panthers have been slowly clawing their way back up the NFC South standings after an 0-3 start.

Panthers QB Jake Delhomme still looks rattled but has at least stopped turning the ball over at every opportunity.

Both teams like to run the ball, the Panthers pounding it out behind DeAngelo Williams while Michael Turner has been a tank for the Falcons.

Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan can also go to the air with confidence throwing 13 TDs this season but every time Delhomme drops back to throw Panthers fans hold their breath and cover their eyes.

The Panthers have been sneaking up on the Falcons in the NFC South. Time to put some distance between them.

Falcons take flight, take Atlanta and give up the 1 1/2 points.

New Orleans Saints (8-0) at St. Louis Rams (1-7) (Line Saints minus 13 1/2) The Rams have had a bye week to savour and celebrate their only win of the season against the Lions but the party is over. I hope they enjoyed it because it’s back to being an NFL punching bag this week as the high-flying Saints march into town.

The Rams have played just three teams with winning records and have been outscored 115-16 and now they must face New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees and the NFL’s most explosive offence.

Saints have the NFL’s top attack averaging 37.9 points a game and St. Louis the league’s worst at 9.6.

Let the fireworks begin.

Take the Saints and give up the 13 1/2 points.

Cincinnati Bengals (6-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2) (Line Bengals plus 7 1/2) While the Patriots-Colts showdown is getting all the hype this NFC North matchup is as good as it gets.

This marquee matchup features two of the NFL’s nastiest defences and efficient offences.

Bengals Carson Palmer is finally looking like the quarterback we all wanted on our fantasy team a few years ago and Ben Roethlisberger just finds a way to “win baby”.

Rashard Mendenhall is supplying the running game the Steelers had been missing while the Bengals counter with rejuvenated Cedric Benson.

Palmer has wide receiver Chad Ochocinco, who loves the big stage, as his favourite target while Big Ben chooses between Hines Ward and Super Bowl MVP Santonio Holmes.

The Steelers come into this contest off a short week but the Super Bowl champions are always tough at home.

This one looks like a toss up to me, so the 7 1/2 points seem very generous.

Steelers could win, so could the Bengals - who cares.

Enjoy a great game and take Bengals and the 7 1/2.

Dallas Cowboys (6-2) at Green Bay Packers (4-4) (Line Cowboys minus 2 1/2) The Cowboys are hot, red hot and the Pack are cold, ice cold.

A few weeks ago Dallas was all in a panic wondering whether Tony Romo has the right man to be at the controls of America ’s team. It appears so. Romo has been on roll and so have the Cowboys ringing up four impressive wins topped by a 20-16 decision over the Eagles last week to go top in the NFC East.

Jason Witten provides Romo with a reliable target while Miles Austin provides the deep threat averaging a league best 22.7 yards a catch. Who needs Terrell Owens anyway.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers has dangerous targets in Donald Driver and Greg Jennings, if he can stay on his feet long enough to find them.

Rodgers has been sacked a league high 37 times, including six last week in a shocking loss to the winless Buccaneers.

Rodgers can expect to spend much of Sunday running for his life or flat on his back as the Dallas pass rush led by DeMarcus Ware tees off on the Packers quarterback.

The Pack continue to suffer from a Brett Favre hangover.

Take the Cowboys and give up the 2 1/2.

Buffalo Bills (3-5) at Tennessee Titans (2-6) (Line Titans minus 6 1/2) The Titans have found their mojo with Vince Young taking over quarterbacking chores from an ineffective Kerry Collins and leading them to back-to-back wins. But it has been punishing running back Chris Johnson showing the way, the NFL’s leading rusher averaging more than 119 yards a game.

With convincing wins over the 49ers and Jaguars the Titans have looked a little bit like the team that won 13 games last season and believe they are capable of late push for a playoff spot.

The Bills are coming off a bye week and expect to have injured quarterback Trent Edwards back calling the plays but wide receiver Terrell Owens is on the limp..

Forget the Bills, remember the Titans.

Take Tennessee and give up the 6 1/2

November 7th, 2009

Week Nine NFL Picks

Posted by: Steve Keating

schaubOkay, the first string is back calling the shots this week after Week 8 backup CBall got pounded 1-5 (ouch).

CBall’s fumbles have left Team Lineman (6-0 in the Lineman’s last start in Week 7 in case anyone forgot) perilously close to the .500 mark but the big guy is back and so is the momentum as we head into the second half the schedule.

Record: 25-34. Last week: 1-5. Pick of the Week: 4-4

PICK OF THE WEEK:

Houston Texans (5-3) at Indianapolis Colts (7-0) (Line Texans plus 9 1/2) Colts quarterback Peyton Manning has been red hot at the controls of the NFL’s top ranked passing game. But wait a second; who is that guy ahead of him leading the league in most yards passing and touchdown passes? Why it’s Texans quarterback Matt Schaub.

Texans monster wide receiver Andre Johnson is scary good and leads NFL with 697 yards on 44 catches but Manning’s favourite target Reggie Wayne has just eight yards less on 55 catches.

After a stuttering start to the season the Texans have won three straight and are 3-1 on the road so should not be intimidated coming into the “Big Oil Drum” Lucas Oil Stadium.

What is intimidating, however, is the Colts 13-1 record against the Texans and a surprisingly stingy defence that has surrendered just 13 points per game - tops in the league.

The Colts could remain unbeaten after Sunday but giving up 9 1/2 to a quality team finding its mojo is just too much.

Take the Texans and the 9 1/2.

Carolina Panthers (3-4) at New Orleans Saints (7-0) (Line Panthers plus 14 1/2) Panthers quarterback Jake Delhomme went off the rails tossing five interceptions in a playoff loss to the Cardinals to end last season and has had problems getting back on track ever since.

After a 0-3 start, the Panthers have displayed some bite with three wins in their last four games but none have come against the type of quality opponent they will face on Sunday.

The Saints high-flying offence led by quarterback Drew Brees can score at will averaging a league best 39 points and 428 yards per game.

The New Orleans defence also knows how to find the end zone returning five interceptions for TDs — not good news for Delhomme who has been a turnover machine tossing 13 picks against just five touchdowns.

But Delhomme, a Louisiana native and former Saints backup, is 6-0 on visits to the Big Easy and is coming off his first turnover free game of the season with last week’s win over Arizona.

The Panthers also catch the Saints coming off a short week following a tough Monday night win over Atlanta.

Brees will be wary of a Panthers top ranked pass defence and defensive end Julius Peppers is a beast with six sacks in last four games.

The Saints march on but giving up two touchdowns is too much.

Take the Panthers and the 14 1/2.

Green Bay Packers (4-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-7) (Line Packers minus 9 1/2) Tampa Bay will wear their vintage 1976 popsicle orange jerseys on Sunday which are sure to bring back memories of the bad old days of when the Bucs were the worst team in the NFL.

Oh wait, the winless Bucs are the worst team in the NFL…

Now that the Brett Favre homecoming circus is behind them, the Packers can focus all their attention on locking up an NFL wildcard spot.

Green Bay’s Aaron Rodgers is the NFL’s top rated QB but the Packers have had problems protecting their quarterback, who has been sacked a league high 31 times.

That however, should not be a concern against the Buccaneers, who couldn’t get to the passer with a road map.

Buccaneers are already onto their third quarterback this season handing rookie Josh Freeman the start.

The Pack enjoy a weekend in the sun.

Take Green Bay and give up the 9 1/2.

Detroit Lions (1-6) at Seattle Seahawks (2-5) (Line Seahawks minus-9 1/2) The beat up Seahawks have just two wins this season but both have been home blowouts, 41-0 over the Jaguars and 28-0 against the Rams.

The Lions make the long trip west to hostile Qwest Field where they have not won since 1999.

For the second consecutive season the Seahawks have been undone by injuries with a dozen starters missing one game or more but have more than enough manpower to handle the toothless Lions, who got dumped by winless St. Louis last week.

Despite having just two wins the Seahawks will be motivated as they remain very much in the hunt for a playoff spot in the weak NFC West sitting just two back of the front-running Cardinals.

Take the Seahawks and surrender the 9 1/2.

Tennessee Titans (1-6) at San Francisco 49ers (3-4) (Line 49ers minus 3 1/2) After a strong start to the season the 49ers have dropped three straight and need a win to keep the pressure on the NFC West leading Cards.

San Fran’s last two defeats to the Colts and Texans were by a combined seven points and this week return to Candlestick Park for their first home game in almost a month.

The NFL’s best team a year ago, the Titans finally got their first win last week over the Jaguars benching aging QB Kerry Collins in favour of Vince Young.

The running game is likely to provide the key to victory in this one with Titans Chris Johnson, who rushed for a franchise-record 228 yards against the Jaguars, going toe-to-toe against 49ers Frank Gore.

But San Francisco has the NFL’s second ranked rush defence yielding just over 84.9 yards a game.

Young and Johnson have provided the Titans with some spark but 49ers coach inspirational Mike Singletary will have his team even more fired up for this one.

Take the 49ers and give up the 3 1/2.

Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) at Denver Broncos (6-1) (Line Steelers minus 2 1/2) The well rested Steelers come off a bye week while the Broncos come into the Monday Nighter off their first loss of season.

The Broncos, who surprised everyone with their 6-0 start, came back to earth with thud falling to the Ravens and now face another tough challenge with the Super Bowl champions coming into Mile High riding a four game win streak.

The Steelers wildman safety Troy Polamalu is back to full fitness and creating havoc and all sorts of headaches for Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger can also expect a tough night going against a Broncos defence that has allowed just over 13 points a game and has 23 sacks.

But the Steelers tame the Broncos, who drop their second in a row.

Take the Steelers and give up the 2 1/2.

PHOTO: Houston Texans quarterback Matt Schaub (8) looks down on the Tennessee Titans during second half of their NFL football game at LP Field in Nashville, Tennessee September 20, 2009. REUTERS/M. J. Masotti Jr.

September 11th, 2009

The Lineman basks in glory, fears the worst

Posted by: Steve Keating

sepulvedaWell, the Lineman got the season off to a perfect start (click the link). Steelers get the win, Titans cover, score one for the Lineman.

We will bask in the glory while it lasts because the Lineman understands this is just the first play in a long season. Let’s hope we are still on the right side of the scoreboard come Tuesday.

Record won-loss: 1-0.

* * * *

PICK OF THE WEEK: Minnesota Vikings at Cleveland Browns (plus 3.5): Future Hall of Famer Brett Favre is back (again) and has something to prove. Adrian Peterson is the NFL’s top running back.

The poor Browns aren’t catching any breaks in Week 1 with the NFL allowing Vikings defensive linemen Kevin Williams and Pat Williams (two of the best in the business) to continue to play while their long-running drugs saga works it way through appeals.

Nasty pass-rusher Jared Allen spearheads a Minnesota defence that might be one of the league’s best guaranteeing it will be a long day for the Browns starting quarterback, the not so mighty Brady Quinn.

The Vikings are seen as Super Bowl contenders; the Browns aren’t. Take the Vikings and give up the points.

* * * *

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (minus-4): The Lineman’s wife says, take the Bengals because they have cool helmets. The Lineman also likes the Bengals because quarterback Carson Palmer looks back in top form after missing most of last season with an elbow injury.

Favourite target Chad Ochocinco Johnson is back and Laveranues Coles should nicely fill the void by T.J. Houshmandzadeh’s departure.

While the Bengals have regained some bite, the Broncos look more like one of those horses pulling a plough.

Broncos rookie head coach Josh McDaniels could be in for rough ride.

Pro Bowl quarterback Jay Cutler was so unimpressed with McDaniels’s flirtation with Matt Cassel that he demanded a trade and was shipped to Chicago while brooding Pro Bowl wide receiver Brandon Marshall has been suspended.

And yes, the Bengals do have cool helmets.

Take the Bengals and give up the points.

* * * *

Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (plus 6): Can you name the Buccaneers starting quarterback? Thought so, neither could we.

No Terrell Owens no problem, Cowboys get win on the road before returning home to Texas to open up their new billion dollar stadium.

Take Cowboys, give up the points

* * * *

New York Jets at Houston Texans (minus 3.5): Jets will have trouble taking off with rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez at the controls. Quarterback Matt Schaub may not get the press or hype Sanchez does but the Texans had the third ranked offense last year.

Andre Johnson led the NFL in receptions last year with 115 and will be Schaub’s favourite target again this season.

Texans have an improving defence and are tough at home. Take Texans, give up the points.

* * * *

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (minus-13): New coach, new quarterback, new uniforms; same old Lions.

The Lions went 0-16 and haven’t won a game since 2007 and it could be 2010 before they get into the win column. It certainly won’t come this weekend in the Big Easy where Drew Brees leads the Saints high octane attack.

First overall pick quarterback Matthew Stafford gets the start for Lions. Welcome to the NFL, Matt.

The Saints come marching home. Take New Orleans, give up the points.

PHOTO: Pittsburgh Steelers punter Daniel Sepulveda (9) congratulates kicker Jeff Reed (3) on his game winning field goal in overtime of their NFL football game in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, September 10, 2009. REUTERS/Jason Cohn