Left field

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

Soccer Break Friday

The first day of the fourth month means April fools day, so we would really love to hear from you if there are any dubious stories doing the rounds.

Here are some. Frank Lampard’s ‘goal that never was’ at the World Cup is to be finally given. Ronaldo will start playing for Spain. And here is a list of five other classics from the past.

How about Real Madrid manager Jose Mourinho for Manchester United? Or do you agree that West Ham United would have been in the hunt for Europe bar refereeing decisions?

Back to this weekend, and the title races in Spain and Italy are really hotting up as our previews will tell you. In Germany, Borussia Dortmund are still well clear but need to steady the ship.

Breaking news on Friday was the joint announcement by FIFA and UEFA that Bosnia were being suspended from international competition. Stay tuned for more including a chat with the Bosnia coach.

Finally the latest on Chad Ochocinco as the debate rages on…can athletes successfully transfer their skills in one sport to another?

Kevin Fylan adds: All betting fans, please also check out the latest edition of our sports spreads show on Insider: Click here for our lightning look at the Premier League programme and the cricket World Cup final.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

Soccer Break Wednesday

Happy middle of the week to you all, and if like me you are in London where the sun is out and there is very little football to write about, you are forgiven for thinking the season is over and the grasscourt tennis season is about to kick in.

Don't look so worried, David (right). While the weather will probably change before I’ve finished writing this blog, the good news is it’s only March and there is plenty more football left. It's just this week it’s the international break.

One of the most intriguing matches is Friday’s qualifier between Serbia and Northern Ireland. Why? There will be no supporters in the ground after Serbia’s clash with Italy in October was abandoned following crowd trouble and the 2006 World Cup winners were handed a 3-0 win.

Also in action on Friday are Italy, France and the 2010 World Cup finalists Spain and the Netherlands, while on Saturday Wales host England in a British Isles derby and Norway host Denmark in a Scandinavian battle. Germany and Russia are two other big names playing.

Chelsea fans fond of Guus Hiddink should also keep a close eye on next Tuesday’s Turkey v Austria match. Blues supporters, should Carlo Ancelotti go if Chelsea fail to win any silverware this year?

Back to European football, and read here for a very dedicated look at the major European leagues including an analysis of AC Milan’s loss in form that has made the Serie A title much more open.

Some good news for Barcelona fans on Tuesday was fullback Dani Alves renewing his contract until 2015.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

FIFA’s World Cup decision day — live

We'll be following all the presentations and the vote itself as FIFA's executive committee decides on the hosts for the 2018 and 2022 World Cups.

Spain/Portugal, Russia, England and Netherlands/Belgium are the four rival bids for 2018, while Australia, South Korea, Qatar, United States and Japan battle it out for 2022, with the vote to come on Thursday.

Follow it all here live...

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

4-2-3-1…4-5-1…4-4-2…that’ll be four midfielders and two forwards then?

So Fabio Capello's masterstroke in revitalising Wayne Rooney and turning England from World Cup no-hopers to instant Euro 2012 favourites was....to tell the Manchester United striker to hang back a bit.

That sage advice, if most of the English press is to be believed, transformed England's formation from a prehistoric 4-4-2 to the liquid 4-5-1 that all the modern young bucks were using in South Africa.

Of course, like most theories spouted about soccer formations, it is so much hot air and falls apart at the slightest investigation.

The fact that Rooney, at times, sat a little deeper and then ran at the Bulgarian defence to team up fruitfully with three-goal front man Jermain Defoe does not mark a significant change of approach, least of all the abandonment of 4-4-2 -- the basic formation usually preferred by most Brazilian coaches during their none-too shabby World Cup campaigns over the years.

The only teams playing a rigid 4-4-2 are the reds and the blues glued to a silver pole who do battle in table football matches around the world -- everything else has a measure of fluidity that seems beyond the comprehension of many journalists who base their assumptions solely on the "tactical lineup" team sheets they are often handed before matches.

Forward pairings almost always operate at staggered levels on the pitch, working with each other with flick-ons, one-twos, lay-offs etc that carve a way though a usually outnumbering defence.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

What’s behind Spain’s run of sporting success?

Spanish sports fans have never had it so good.

The Iberian nation is celebrating its latest triumphs after a month of success that local media have called a golden age.

On Sunday, Alberto Contador sealed his third Tour de France title, Fernando Alonso won the German Formula One Grand Prix, and Jorge Lorenzo roared to MotoGP victory in the U.S.

Pictures of Contador clad in the Tour winner's yellow jersey and Alonso in the red driving suit of Ferrari dominated the newspaper's front pages, chiming perfectly with the colours of the Spanish flag.

All that just two weeks after Spain secured its first World Cup soccer crown and three weeks after Rafa Nadal won Wimbledon for the second time.

It was enough to leave the daily Marca proclaiming Spain "the world's great sporting superpower".

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

World Cup final live — Spain 1 Dutch 0 – how it happened

We've followed every World Cup match live here and it's now time for the final --- the Netherlands v Spain. Join us here for commentary, discussion of the game and the best photos in the world.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

Losing team’s national stock markets at risk

By Ross Kerber

Two national market indexes that may not shine on Monday are those of Spain and the Netherlands, whose soccer teams are scheduled to meet in the World Cup's championship game on Sunday.

Whichever country's team loses can expect a drag on its market index of 49 basis points, said Wharton business school professor Alex Edmans. That is the amount that national stock indexes tend to be held back on average on the day after their country is eliminated from the World Cup, according to a paper he published in 2007 with two co-authors, Diego Garcia of the University of North Carolina and Oyvind Norli of the Norwegian School of Management.

In an interview with Reuters, Edmans said his predictions seem to be playing out this year as well, based at least on anecdotal observations. For instance, as an English citizen, Edmans noted ruefully that the FTSE 100 index fell in late June as England's team played below expectations before being tossed out of the tournament by Germany on June 27 by a score of 4-1.

"As an England fan and an English shareholder I've been suffering both ways!" Edmans said.

Edmans' paper made a splash when an early version was circulated before the 2006 World Cup tournament. It is part of a growing body of academic literature in the field of ‘behavioral economics”. Begun partly in reaction to the extremely theoretical research that had dominated much academic discussion, its practitioners aim for a greater understanding of how human psychology affects their economic decisions.

In the soccer case, for instance, one of Edmans’ conclusions is that sour investor sentiment tied to a team's misfortune spills over into general negativity about their economic outlook.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

Sorry Germany, the oracle octopus has spoken

There are only three things that are certain in life -- death, taxes and the World Cup predictions of a British-born octopus in western Germany.

That being the case, there's hardly any point in playing Wednesday's semi-final between Germany and Spain -- the Spanish have got it won.

Paul the Octopus has spoken, eating his food from the container with the Spanish flag at Sea Life and thus sealing Germany's fate.

Paul has a perfect World Cup record -- correctly predicting the results of all five of Germany's matches so far, even the shock defeat against Serbia, and scoring exactly the same number of goals as Lionel Messi and Wayne Rooney into the bargain.

German hopes are dangling by two tiny threads.

Firstly, while Paul has a perfect record here, he did get one match wrong at Euro 2008, predicting a German win over Spain in the final. Secondly, coach Joachim Loew has been persuaded not to wash his famous blue jumper before the end of the World Cup.

The baby blue cashmere number has become a good luck symbol, which leaves us with an intriguing match in store for Wednesday -- the octopus versus the goat-hair.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

Reuters World Cup 2010 podcast — quarter-finals (II)

Listen!

Join us for a look back at the extraordinary first two quarter-finals at the World Cup and a look forward to Germany v Argentina and Spain v Paraguay. Paul Radford, Felix Bate, Jon Bramley and Kevin Fylan argue over the merits of penalty goals in soccer and consider Ghana's desperate misfortune.

from Reuters Soccer Blog:

World Cup 2010 quarter-finals podcast

Welcome to our latest Reuters 2010 World Cup podcast, as we follow the lead of the world's most famous psychic octopus and try to predict what will happen in the quarter-finals. Kevin Fylan is joined by Paul Radford, Jon Bramley, Ken Ferris and Mr Mark Gleeson.