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Sep 29, 2011

German parliament backs enhanced bailout fund

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s parliament approved new powers for the euro zone’s crisis fund on Thursday but it was not clear if Angela Merkel got enough votes from her coalition to silence rebels worried about funding a series of bailouts of countries like Greece.

Support from the opposition meant there had been no doubt Germany would okay new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which some countries like Finland have ratified but others, including Slovakia, are disputing.

The Bundestag’s (lower house of parliament) deputy speaker Wolfgang Thierse said 523 lawmakers had voted for the bill, 85 against with only three had abstentions.

If a breakdown of votes expected take up to an hour more shows the bill only got through thanks to the centre-left opposition, it would undermine the conservative chancellor’s ability to pilot fresh measures to combat the euro crisis.

Merkel had tried to assure her coalition that taxpayers’ money would not be wasted by supporting bailout measures — but she could not rule out that the money might be written off if, as financial markets increasingly fear, Greece defaults.

Germany will shoulder up to 211 billion euros of the fund’s 440 billion euros worth of guarantees, but critics fear it is already clear this will not be enough and taxpayers will be asked for more.

That impression was reinforced by talk at the International Monetary Fund last weekend of the need to beef up the EFSF even more — on top of the extra powers decided by European leaders in July — by leveraging its capital and bring forward the permanent scheme supposed to replace it in mid-2013.

Sep 28, 2011

Germany’s Merkel faces biggest test in euro vote

BERLIN, Sept 29 (Reuters) – German Chancellor Angela Merkel faces a battle for her political survival on Thursday when some of her coalition, worried about throwing good money after bad by bailing out Greece, could humiliate her in a parliament vote on euro-zone rescue schemes.

Support from the centre-left opposition will ensure Germany passes the bill on new powers for the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), which some countries like Finland have ratified but others, including Slovakia, are disputing.

But if dissent in her coalition forces Merkel to rely on opposition votes to pass the new powers for the 440 billion euro ($600 billion) rescue fund, it would be politically damaging for the conservative chancellor.

Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their allies were pressuring the handful of dissidents to get in line before the vote at 11 a.m. (0900 GMT). It should be clear about half an hour after that the EFSF has been passed, but word on how many government lawmakers rebelled could take another hour.

“We are working to convince people,” CDU second-in-command Hermann Groehe told Reuters. He said “it will be close” but the government would not put itself in the humiliating position of depending on the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens.

Merkel tried to assure her coalition that German taxpayers’ money would not be wasted by voting a new bailout for Athens – but she could not rule out that the money might be written off if, as financial markets increasingly fear, Greece defaults.

Merkel often is accused in Europe and at home of dithering on the euro crisis and if she does not win the EFSF vote on her own terms, it would damage her hopes of taking the conservative bloc she has led for 11 years into the next elections in 2013.

Sep 28, 2011

Merkel hedges bets on Greece as euro pressure builds

BERLIN (Reuters) – Angela Merkel worked to defuse revolt within her government on Wednesday, soothing fears Germany may be throwing good money after bad in Greece but acknowledging the concerns of those ready to humiliate her in a parliamentary vote.

“We are trying to avoid a Greek insolvency. But I cannot rule it out,” the famously cautious chancellor was quoted by Bild newspaper as telling her coalition — assuring them that voting a new EU bailout for Athens would not be wasted, but accepting too that German taxpayers’ money might be written off.

Faced with a vote in the Bundestag on Thursday in which she might be forced to rely embarrassingly on the support of the center-left opposition, politicians who were present said Merkel insisted again that the risk of a Greek default — increasingly talked about even by German officials — was “close to zero.”

But for all that public and private assurance, Bild, which has taken a skeptical line on support for the heavily indebted Greek state, still ran the headline on its story on Merkel as “Government secretly expects a Greek bankruptcy.”

In another comment acknowledging concerns in Germany, the chancellor told Greek television late on Tuesday that the terms of the new 109 billion euro ($149 billion) bailout could be reopened, depending on Athens’ ability to meet reform targets.

While, typically, not explicit, that is interpreted my many as accepting that German money could be withheld if Greece fails to deliver promised budget cuts to help it repay its debts.

“With such comments, Merkel wants to keep her options open,” said Holger Schmieding at economist at Berenberg bank.

Sep 27, 2011

Merkel majority in euro vote hangs in balance

BERLIN, Sept 27 (Reuters) – Germany’s Angela Merkel has convinced some rebels in her party to back new powers for the euro zone’s rescue fund in a vote on Thursday, but may still have to rely on the opposition to get the measure passed, in what would be a humiliating setback.

The vote in the Bundestag lower house of parliament is the biggest test of Merkel’s leadership since she came to power six years ago.

While passage of the bill is not in doubt thanks to support from opposition parties like the Social Democrats (SPD) and Greens, the way her own lawmakers vote will determine whether Merkel retains her authority until the next election in 2013.

“The whole world is watching this vote,” the chancellor said at a meeting of her conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union (CSU).

In a trial vote taken by lawmakers in her bloc on Tuesday, 11 voted against bolstering the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and two abstained, according to participants. This looked slightly better for Merkel than the last dry run.

But sources gave conflicting signals about how her junior coalition partners, the Free Democrats (FDP), would vote on Thursday, with “no” vote estimates ranging from two to five, and as many as six abstentions seen.

The government has 330 seats in the 620-seat Bundestag so Merkel can afford no more than 19 rebels if she is to deliver the required 311-seat majority without relying on the opposition.

Sep 19, 2011

Analysis – Swashbuckling pays in new world of German politics

BERLIN (Reuters) – The humiliation of Angela Merkel’s allies in Berlin state elections offers her short-term relief in highlighting the risks of an explicitly ‘eurosceptic’ platform; but the vote dramatises a shift in Germany’s political landscape unlikely to benefit the chancellor.

With the Social Democrats (SPD) scoring a convincing third-term win in the capital and likely to form a new coalition with the fast-growing Greens, the result reflects nationwide opinion polls and looks like a foretaste of federal elections in 2013.

The centre-left did not do as well as expected, the Greens had the wind taken out of their sails and the pride of Merkel’s own party was barely salvaged by small gains. The eccentric Pirate Party came from nowhere to teach all the established parties a lesson.

“The Berlin election confirms what we’d already seen in other state elections this year — that the political landscape is changing,” said pollster Klaus-Peter Schoeppner of the EMNID Institute.

“Germans are seeing so many problems heaped upon them, on the financial and economic fronts, on the energy and foreign policy fronts, that they have lost their trust in politicians and in political parties, and no longer regard them as competent to handle these issues,” said Schoeppner.

A year of seven regional elections has seen the authority of Merkel’s conservatives challenged in their wealthy southwestern stronghold, the FDP shrink from record highs in 2009′s federal elections to insignificance, and the impressive rise of the Greens, now present in all 16 German state assemblies.

The steady decline of the former communist Left — who shot themselves in the foot by waxing nostalgic about the Berlin Wall — has been confirmed, with Berlin’s SPD Mayor Klaus Wowereit ruling out renewing a 10-year alliance with them in the capital.

Sep 19, 2011

Analysis: Swashbuckling pays in brave new world of German

BERLIN (Reuters) – The humiliation of Angela Merkel’s allies in Berlin state elections offers her short-term relief in highlighting the risks of an explicitly ‘eurosceptic’ platform; but the vote dramatizes a shift in Germany’s political landscape unlikely to benefit the chancellor.

With the Social Democrats (SPD) scoring a convincing third-term win in the capital and likely to form a new coalition with the fast-growing Greens, the result reflects nationwide opinion polls and looks like a foretaste of federal elections in 2013.

The center-left did not do as well as expected, the Greens had the wind taken out of their sails and the pride of Merkel’s own party was barely salvaged by small gains. The eccentric Pirate Party came from nowhere to teach all the established parties a lesson.

“The Berlin election confirms what we’d already seen in other state elections this year — that the political landscape is changing,” said pollster Klaus-Peter Schoeppner of the EMNID Institute.

“Germans are seeing so many problems heaped upon them, on the financial and economic fronts, on the energy and foreign policy fronts, that they have lost their trust in politicians and in political parties, and no longer regard them as competent to handle these issues,” said Schoeppner.

A year of seven regional elections has seen the authority of Merkel’s conservatives challenged in their wealthy southwestern stronghold, the FDP shrink from record highs in 2009′s federal elections to insignificance, and the impressive rise of the Greens, now present in all 16 German state assemblies.

The steady decline of the former communist Left — who shot themselves in the foot by waxing nostalgic about the Berlin Wall — has been confirmed, with Berlin’s SPD Mayor Klaus Wowereit ruling out renewing a 10-year alliance with them in the capital.

Sep 18, 2011

Merkel and eurosceptic allies beaten in Berlin

BERLIN, Sept 18 (Reuters) – Germany’s Social Democrats beat Angela Merkel’s conservatives in a regional vote in Berlin on Sunday, handing the chancellor her sixth election defeat this year ahead of a key euro zone vote in parliament in two weeks’ time.

Merkel’s centre-right coalition suffered a further setback when their junior coalition partners at the national level, the Free Democrats (FDP), failed to clear the five percent threshold needed to win seats — for the fifth time this year.

The beleaguered FDP, which had attempted to attract voters in Berlin with its increasingly euro-sceptic tactics, plunged to 2 percent from 7.6 percent in 2006, exit polls showed.

Their eroding support nationwide could destabilise Merkel’s centre-right coalition, analysts said.

Merkel, under fire for her hesitant leadership in the euro zone crisis, is halfway through a four-year term. But election setbacks for her CDU have hurt her standing before the vote on euro zone measures in parliament on Sept. 29.

“We would be wise to show humility about this result,” said a visibly stunned FDP deputy party leader, Christian Lindner. “It’s a low-point but also a wake up call. We knew it was going to be a difficult year and that’s been dramatically confirmed.”

The SPD won 29.5 percent of the vote in Berlin, down from 30.8 percent in 2006 in Germany’s largest city with 3.4 million inhabitants, according to an exit poll on ARD television.

Sep 18, 2011

Merkel party suffers fresh election setback in Berlin

BERLIN (Reuters) – Germany’s center-left Social Democrats beat Angela Merkel’s conservatives in a regional election in the city-state of Berlin on Sunday, handing the chancellor her sixth defeat in seven elections this year.

The SPD won 29.5 percent of the vote in Berlin, down from 30.8 percent in 2006 in Germany’s largest city with 3.4 million inhabitants, according to an exit poll on ARD television.

SPD Mayor Klaus Wowereit appeared to be headed for a third five-year term, with the Greens as his most likely coalition partner. It was another bitter defeat for Merkel’s CDU ahead of a crucial euro zone rescue vote in parliament in two weeks.

The CDU won 23.5 percent, up slightly from 21.3 percent in 2006 but well below the 40 percent the party used to win in Berlin in the 1980s and 1990s. The Greens won 18 percent, up from 13.1 percent in 2006, and the Left party fell to 11.5 percent from 13.4 percent.

The Pirate Party, running on a campaign for reform of copyright and better privacy in the Internet age, came out of nowhere to win a stunning 8.5 percent.

Merkel’s center-right coalition suffered more bad news in the Berlin election when their junior coalition partners at the national level, the Free Democrats (FDP), failed to clear the five percent threshold for getting a seat — the fifth time in this year’s series of elections. The FDP plunged to 2 percent, down from 7.6 percent in 2006.

Merkel, under fire for her hesitant leadership in the euro zone crisis, is halfway through a four-year term. But election setbacks for her CDU have hurt her standing before the vote on euro zone measures in parliament at the end of September.

Sep 16, 2011

German pope ventures into land of Luther and Marx

ERFURT, Germany (Reuters) – Indifference, irritation and, inevitably, protest will likely mark a papal trip to the former East Germany that includes an historic meeting in the one-time home of Martin Luther to find ways Catholics and Protestants can work together to save Germany’s soul.

Nearly a quarter of a million Catholics will throng open-air services celebrated by Pope Benedict on his September 22-25 state visit to Erfurt, Berlin, a Catholic enclave at Etzelsbach and staunchly Catholic Freiburg in southwest Germany.

But unlike in the Rhineland and his native Bavaria, where Catholic majorities ensured him a warm homecoming on his two previous visits to Germany as pope, the 84-year-old Joseph Ratzinger will encounter deep suspicion in eastern Germany, an area traditionally Protestant but now mostly atheist after four decades of Communism.

The meeting with Germany’s Protestant leaders will take place in Erfurt’s 13th-century Augustinian monastery, where Martin Luther lived on and off as a Catholic monk from 1505 to 1511 before defying Rome by writing his “95 Theses” in 1517 and later translating the Bible into German.

In the city’s cobbled streets, churches, restaurants and shops vie to claim historical links to the priest behind the Reformation and split with Rome.

Few posters or papal flags welcoming the pope can be seen, though on the steep steps up to the medieval Catholic cathedral a drunk yells instructions to builders erecting an altar for a Mass for 85,000 people.

“He’ll find himself in an unusual situation with a very high number of atheists. It’s a joint challenge for us,” Ilse Junkermann, Erfurt’s female Protestant bishop who will host the historic talks, told German church media.

Sep 16, 2011

Talk of orderly Greek default is wishful thinking

BERLIN/BRUSSELS (Reuters) – Some politicians in Europe air the view that an “orderly” Greek debt default should be discussed, but history suggests it would be a very messy affair unless euro zone leaders agree to make preparations and ring-fence the banks.

Commentators who favour a default for Greece, believing other options just delay the inevitable, often cite Argentina’s default in 2002 — and subsequent strong economic growth — as an argument that it need not be too painful.

“If Europe is taking us as an example, they must be in even more trouble than I thought,” observed economist Aldo Abram in Buenos Aires. He recalled that the president who declared the biggest sovereign debt default in history, Adolfo Rodriguez Saa, lasted a week and was one of four presidents in a month.

If Greece follows Argentina’s desperate path of devaluation and abrupt debt default, said Abram, “they will be condemned to poverty and will see their banking system destroyed”.

European leaders are adamant that Greece will not default, let alone leave the euro zone, and want parliaments to ratify a second bailout package for the debt-laden country which has so far failed to deliver on reforms set as a condition for aid.

A souped-up European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) with the involvement of private-sector creditors and the more permanent European Stability Mechanism (ESM) taking its place from mid-2013 are meant to fend off any need for restructuring.

But with Greece failing to meet the European Union and International Monetary Fund’s terms for bailout, German Economy Minister Philipp Roesler has suggested lifting a “taboo” on talking about an “orderly bankruptcy”.

    • About Stephen

      "I moved to Berlin to run our German political, economic and general news file in 2010 after nearly four years as chief correspondent in Rome covering Berlusconi, the L'Aquila earthquake, G8 summit and Vatican. I was Nordic and Baltic bureau chief for 3-1/2 years and bureau chief of southern Latin America, based in Buenos Aires, for eight years including the Argentine collapse in 2001/2002. My first assignments for Reuters were in Spain, Portugal and our HQ in London. Before Reuters I worked for the Financial Times Group."
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