The BBB credit ratings traffic jam
Adversity is a great leveller. Just look at the way sovereign credit ratings in the developed and emerging world have been converging ever since the credit crisis erupted five years ago. JPMorgan has crunched a few numbers.
Few were surprised last week by S&P’s decision to cut the outlook on Britain’s AAA rating to negative. That gold-plated rating is becoming increasingly rare — according to JP Morgan, just 15 percent of global GDP now rates AAA with a stable outlook — a whopping comedown from 50 percent in 2007. Only 13 developed economies are now rated AAA, compared to 21 before the crisis. And only one, Australia, now has a higher rating (AAA) than in 2007 — 16 of its peers have suffered a total of 129 downgrades in this period. With 20 rich countries on negative outlook, more downgrades are likely.
Analysis: Argentina debt case weakens incentives to settle
LONDON (Reuters) – A legal clause as the key to smoothing future debt restructurings could be undermined by a U.S. court ruling that Argentina must pay creditors holding its defaulted debt.
The case has implications for emerging markets, source of protracted and painful past defaults, and for Europe, where the rules setting up the euro zone’s bailout fund state that government bonds must carry Collective Action Clauses from 2013.
Argentina debt case weakens incentives to settle
LONDON (Reuters) – A legal clause as the key to smoothing future debt restructurings could be undermined by a U.S. court ruling that Argentina must pay creditors holding its defaulted debt.
The case has implications for emerging markets, source of protracted and painful past defaults, and for Europe, where the rules setting up the euro zone’s bailout fund state that government bonds must carry Collective Action Clauses from 2013.
African growth if China slows
The apparent turnaround in Africa’s fortunes over the past decade has been attributed to the rise of China and its insatiable appetite for African commodities. So African policymakers, like those everywhere, will have been relieved by the recent uptick in Chinese economic data.
But is Africa’s dependence on China exaggerated? A hard landing in the Asian giant will be an undoubted setback for African finances but according to Fitch Ratings. it may not be a disaster.
Venezuelan debt jumps as ailing Chavez names successor
LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – Venezuelan dollar bonds rallied sharply on Monday and debt insurance costs tumbled after the nomination of a successor by ailing President Hugo Chavez raised the prospect of his departure after 14 years in power.
Chavez stunned Venezuela over the weekend with an announcement that he had suffered a setback in his long-term battle with cancer. He named Vice President and Foreign Minister Nicolas Maduro to take over, should he become incapacitated.
Venezuelan debt rallies as ailing Chavez names successor
LONDON/NEW YORK, Dec 10 (Reuters) – Venezuelan dollar bonds
rallied sharply on Monday and debt insurance costs tumbled after
the nomination of a successor by ailing President Hugo Chavez
raised the prospect of his departure after 14 years in power.
Venezuelan yield spreads over U.S. Treasuries fell 66 basis
points to 748 bps, the narrowest since August 2008, on JP
Morgan’s EMBI Global index. The most-traded 2027 dollar
bond jumped 2.3 cents to bid 101.092, its highest
point since February 2008.
EM interest rates in 2013 – rise or fall
This year has been all about interest rate cuts. As Western central banks took their policy-easing efforts to ever new levels, emerging markets had little recourse but to cut rates as well. Interest rates in many countries from Brazil to the Czech Republic are at record lows.
Some countries such as Poland and Hungary are expected to continue lowering rates. Rate cuts may also come in India if a reluctant central bank finds its hand forced by the slumping economy. But in many markets, interest rate swaps are now pricing rate rises in 2013.
Golden days of the Turkey-Iran trade may be gone
Global Investing has discussed in the past what a golden opportunity the Iranian crisis has proved for Turkey. Between January and July 2012 it ratcheted up gold exports to Iran ten-fold compared to 2011 as inflation-hit Iranians clamoured for the precious metal. Since August exports appear to have been routed via the UAE, possibly to circumvent U.S. sanctions on trade with Teheran.
The trade has been a handy little earner. Evidence of that has shown up in Turkey’s data all year as its massive current account deficit has steadily shrunk. On Friday, official data showed the Turkish trade gap falling by a third in October from year-ago levels. And yes, precious metal exports (read gold) came in at $1.5 billion compared to $322.4 million last October. In short, a jump of 370 percent.
Tide turning for emerging currencies, local debt
Emerging market currencies have been a source of frustration for investors this year. With central banks overwhelmingly in rate-cutting mode and export growth slowing, most currencies have performed poorly. That has been a bit of a dampener for local currency debt – while returns in dollar terms have been robust at 13 percent, currency appreciation has contributed just 1.5 percent of that, according to JP Morgan.
The picture could be changing though. Fund managers at the Reuters 2013 investment outlook summit this week have been unanimously bullish on emerging debt, with many stating a preference for domestic debt. So far this year, dollar debt has taken in three-quarters of all inflows to emerging fixed income.
Emerging policy-Down in Hungary; steady in Latin America
A mixed bag this week on emerging policy and one that shows the growing divergence between dovish central Europe and an increasingly hawkish (with some exceptions) Latin America.
Hungary cut rates this week by 25 basis points, a move that Morgan Stanley described as striking “while the iron is hot”, or cutting interest rates while investor appetite is still strong for emerging markets. The current backdrop is keeping the cash flowing even into riskier emerging markets of which Hungary is undeniably one. (On that theme, Budapest also on Wednesday announced plans for a Eurobond to take advantage of the strong appetite for high-risk assets, but that’s another story).







