LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) – The rouble may have plunged 25
percent against the dollar so far this year, but some currency
traders are betting on a further 10 percent drop in 2015 on the
grounds that the currency is still expensive once trade and
inflation are factored in.
Russia’s currency is on course for its biggest weekly
loss since early 2009 after the central bank decided to cap
daily dollar sales at $350 million – and investors interpreted
that to mean it would not shore up the rouble.
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) – The rouble crashed to new record
lows on Thursday after the central bank stepped back from its
daily multi-billion dollar currency interventions, with Russian
assets generally bucking a more stable emerging markets trend.
The central bank announced on Wednesday that it would limit
daily interventions to $350 million, a fraction of the amounts
it has been selling for many weeks to support the rouble, a
decision investors have interpreted as an effective move to a
floating exchange rate.
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Oil’s tumble to new four-year lows
on Wednesday prompted a heavy selloff of stocks and bonds in
energy-producing emerging markets from the Middle East to
Russia, while importer countries like India enjoyed the prospect
of cheaper fuel.
Expectations that the oil price will remain weak is creating
a sharp divergence between emerging markets that export energy
and those that import, with asset managers starting to shift
investments to the latter.
LONDON, Nov 4 (Reuters) – Tumbling oil prices fuelled a
heavy fall in the dollar bonds of energy exporting emerging
nations on Tuesday, with Venezuela and Ecuador leading the pack
as investors fretted about their ability to repay debt.
Ecuador’s yield spreads over U.S. Treasuries – a measure of
the premium investors demand to hold a credit relative to
safe-haven U.S. Treasuries blew out 33 basis points on the EMBI
Global bond index of emerging debt to 523 bps
LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) – Emerging equities and currencies
started the week on a sour note on Monday, hit by the dollar at
four-year highs, lacklustre Chinese data and a possible fresh
flare-up in tensions over Ukraine.
Russian stocks fell in a holiday-thinned trading session,
while the rouble slipped another 0.8 percent versus the dollar
as a controversial poll in Eastern Ukraine added to
pressure from domestic factors.
LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) – One-month implied volatility on
the rouble – a gauge of expected swings in a currency – surged
to new record highs on Friday, as the spot exchange rate
shrugged off an outsize 150 basis-point interest rate rise to
resume its slide.
The Russian currency’s relentless depreciation in recent
weeks was abruptly halted on Thursday and it rallied more than
3 percent ahead of the central bank decision. But the
rouble resumed its slide after Friday’s rate rise.
LONDON (Reuters) – Equity holdings in global portfolios dipped to the lowest in more than a year in October as lingering caution about world growth and central bank policies prompted European, U.S. and British funds to trim allocations.
A monthly survey of 46 investment houses from the United States, Japan, continental Europe and Britain showed on Friday that the average recommended allocation to equities in global balanced portfolios had slipped to 49.5 percent, more than one percentage point lower than in September.
LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) – Emerging markets mostly fell on
Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve set the clock ticking on
its first interest rate rise in almost a decade, with a surging
dollar taking an especially heavy toll on currencies.
Russia, hurt by its own domestic woes, continued its run as
the worst performing market, with the currency falling to a
record low against the dollar.
LONDON, Oct 29 (Reuters) – Emerging stocks rose to
three-week highs on Wednesday, buoyed by gains in China and
expectations of a dovish U.S. Fed stance though the positive
mood did not touch Russia where the rouble hit another record
The Zambian kwacha was the other loser of the day, falling
more than 2 percent after the death of President Michael
Sata though it later pared losses on hopes that elections would
bring in a more investor-friendly leader.
LONDON (Reuters) – Pledges of reform in emerging markets have encouraged investors this year, but Brazil’s vote against any change at the top of its government is raising questions over whether the reforms will be delivered in hyped-up markets like India and Indonesia.
Leftist Dilma Rousseff won re-election as Brazil’s president by a slim margin over business favorite Aecio Neves. Her Workers’ Party is credited with lifting 40 million Brazilians out of poverty, but investors want to see bold pro-business measures to reverse the country’s deepening economic funk.