LONDON (Reuters) – If the Reserve Bank of India wants some pointers on how to lift the rupee decisively off record lows, it could try asking Turkish central bank governor Erdem Basci.
The rupee tumbled to a new record low against the dollar on Tuesday, raising the stakes for the RBI, whose stop-start currency defense strategy is widely seen as inadequate.
Is the price right? Many reckon that the sell off in emerging markets and growing disenchantment with the developing world’s growth story is lending fresh validity to the value-based investing model.
That’s especially so for the four BRIC economies, where shares have underperformed for years thanks either to an over-reliance on commodities, excessive valuations conferred by a perception of fast growth or simply dodgy corporate governance. Now with MSCI’s emerging equity index down 30 percent from 2007 peaks, prices are looking so beaten down that some players, even highly unlikely ones, are finding value.
Should South Africa’s central bank — the SARB – strike first with an interest rate hike before being forced into it? Gill Marcus and her team started their two-day policy meeting today and no doubt have been keeping an eye on happenings in Turkey, a place where a pre-emptive rate hike (instead of blowing billions of dollars in reserves) might have saved the day.
The SARB is very different from Turkey’s central bank in that it is generally less concerned about currency weakness due to the competitiveness boost a weak rand gives the domestic mining sector. This time things might be a bit different. The bank is battling not only anaemic growth but also rising inflation that may soon bust the upper end of its 3-6 percent target band thanks to a rand that has weakened 15 percent to the dollar this year.
LONDON (Reuters) – A well-orchestrated statement from G20 finance chiefs this week could go some way towards defusing the volatility of global markets surrounding the end of U.S. money printing, but probably not the markets’ direction.
Strategists and investors have grown inured against over-inflated expectations of G20 meetings ever since it conducted a dramatic global economic rescue in early 2009.
LONDON (Reuters) – China’s vast market for foreign goods and services, once seen by global companies as a modern-day El Dorado, is becoming a weight around their necks as its growth slows.
The rise of the Chinese economic “dragon” over the last two decades has transformed international business. But now the country is in the grip of a slowdown due to a slump in exports and banking sector excesses, as recent data has shown.
LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) – China’s vast market for foreign
goods and services, once seen by global companies as a
modern-day El Dorado, is becoming a weight around their necks as
its growth slows.
The rise of the Chinese economic “dragon” over the last two
decades has transformed international business. But now the
country is in the grip of a slowdown due to a slump in exports
and banking sector excesses, as recent data has shown.
LONDON, July 11 (Reuters) – Foreign investors sitting on
losses of 5-15 percent in Turkey are likely to cut and run
without a swift and substantial interest rate rise to stabilise
the plunging lira.
Foreign fund managers have yanked around $3 billion from
Turkish stocks and bonds since the last week of May, central
bank data shows, reversing only a tiny part of the investment
inflows the country has received in recent years.
LONDON (Reuters) – Egypt’s crumbling public finances may be in even worse shape than previously estimated.
While stock and bond markets have cheered the ouster of unpopular President Mohamed Mursi by the army and Egypt’s debt insurance costs have tumbled, data shows that financial risks are about to escalate.
For an investor in emerging equities the best strategy in recent years has been to take a contrarian stance, says John-Paul Smith at Deutsche Bank.
Smith, head of emerging equity strategy at Deutsche, has been bearish on emerging stocks since 2010, exactly the time when bucketloads of new cash was being committed to the asset class. Investors who heeded his advice back then would have been in the money — since end-2010 emerging equities have underperformed U.S. equities by almost 40 percent, Smith pointed out a couple of months ago.
Glass half full or half empty? For emerging markets watchers, it’s still not clear.
Last month was a record one in terms of net outflow for funds dedicated to emerging equities, Boston-based agency EPFR Global said. Debt funds meanwhile saw a $5.5 billion exodus in the week to June 26, the highest in history .