Investment strategy Correspondent
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Jan 16, 2015

Polish assets extend loss on franc fears; EM stocks to snap 4-wk winning run

LONDON, Jan 16 (Reuters) – The Polish zloty and stocks
extended losses on Friday after the Swiss franc’s surge against
central European currencies fanned financial stability fears,
though Hungarian assets stabilised.

More broadly, emerging equities were set to snap a four-week
winning streak, with the currency market turbulence
preventing the sector from benefiting from the fall in U.S.
Treasury yields.

Jan 15, 2015

Copper collapse a fresh blow for many emerging economies

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) – The collapse in prices for copper
will deal a blow to emerging economies from Chile to Congo that
are reliant on exports of the metal, with currencies and
economic growth likely to bear the brunt.

Copper has tumbled to six-year lows this week,
sending shockwaves through global markets that are just coming
to terms with oil’s 60 percent price slide since June. Worst hit
are likely to be Chile and Peru, the world’s top and third
largest copper producers respectively.

Jan 15, 2015

Capital flows to emerging markets to fall in 2015 for second straight year

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) – Capital flows to emerging markets
will decline in 2015 for the second year in a row due to the
prospect of higher U.S. interest rates, a global finance
industry body said on Thursday, predicting inflows of $1.06
trillion.

The Washington DC-based Institute of International Finance
(IIF) said in a report that total private sector investment
flows to emerging markets fell last year to $1.1 trillion, $250
billion less than the 2013 record high of $1.35 trillion.

Jan 14, 2015

Threat of debt writedowns hovers over Ukraine

LONDON/KIEV, Jan 14 (Reuters) – The collapse in Ukraine’s
hard currency reserves to just enough to cover five weeks of
imports is threatening big government debt writedowns, rather
than mere maturity extensions, being needed to put the country
on its feet.

That is, unless international lenders beef up existing loan
offers to plug an estimated $15 billion funding gap.

Jan 14, 2015

Copper share rout leads emerging markets lower

LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) – Big copper firms from India’s
Hindalco to Poland’s KGHM led emerging equity falls on Wednesday
as prices for the metal plunged to 5-1/2 year lows, fuelling
concerns about growth and deflation in many countries.

Copper’s rout combined with oil’s 60 percent slide in the
past six months is weighing on commodity producers from Russia
to Chile, while growth fears are pressuring equity markets
worldwide. MSCI’s emerging equity index fell half a percent
while stocks in commodity-heavy South Africa shed 1
percent.

Jan 13, 2015

Oil hammers Russia, Gulf; fuels deflation fears in central Europe

LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The rouble tumbled more than 3
percent on Tuesday as oil prices slid and expectations grew of
an imminent ratings downgrade to junk for Russia, while
deflationary pressures pushed central European currencies lower.

Brent and U.S. cude futures fell to near six-year lows, down
60 percent since June, a blow for oil exporters Russia, Saudi
Arabia and Malaysia.

Jan 11, 2015

More losses loom for Russian bonds as credit rating heads back to junk

LONDON (Reuters) – Russia’s credit rating looks set to tumble into junk for the first time in more than a decade, a move that would exclude its bonds from a couple of high-profile indexes and may set off another wave of capital outflows.

The Fitch agency cut its rating on Russia to ‘BBB minus’ from ‘BBB’ on Friday, citing a significant deterioration in the country’s economic outlook due to the slump in oil prices and falling value of the rouble.

Jan 2, 2015

Indian stocks lead emerging shares higher in thin trade

LONDON, Jan 2 (Reuters) – Indian shares led emerging market
gains on Friday, boosted by fresh reform hopes and signs of an
improving economy while most emerging currencies started the
year under pressure from the strong dollar.

With Russian and Chinese markets shut and trading elsewhere
thinned by the holiday season, emerging equities rose 0.25
percent after closing 2014 with losses of 4.6 percent.
Indian equities rose 1.5 percent to stand just 3 percent off
record highs hit early in December.

Dec 31, 2014

Emerging stocks head for second yearly loss

LONDON, Dec 31 (Reuters) – Emerging equities were set on
Wednesday to post their second straight year in the red, while
dollar bond spreads widened and the rouble headed for its worst
year since Russia’s 1998 crisis.

The sector is suffering from a resurgent dollar, slowing
growth, a sharp oil price drop and Western sanctions on Russia,
triggered by Moscow’s perceived role in the Ukraine crisis.

Dec 29, 2014

Russian company debt contaminates sovereign dollar bonds

LONDON, Dec 29 (Reuters) – As Russia confronts financial
crisis, investors in its sovereign dollar bonds are braced for
things to get worse before they get better, even though few
expect a full-blown sovereign default.

The Russian state, they say, is a diligent payer of debts
however belligerent the rhetoric of its leaders. But Russian
companies are heavily indebted and with Western sanctions over
Moscow’s role in Ukraine making it hard for them to access
capital, the national balance sheet may have to shoulder much of
the burden.