LONDON (Reuters) – A gradual pick-up in euro zone economic growth and inflation next year makes it likely the European Central Bank will not resort to a much-anticipated sovereign bond buying program, UBS Wealth Management says.
Euro bloc price growth has been in what ECB President Mario Draghi calls “the danger zone” below 1 percent for a year, reaching 0.4 percent in October, while Reuters polls show the economy expanding just 0.2 percent in the last quarter of 2014.
LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – Investors should prepare their
portfolios for an upsurge in political risk in Britain, where a
2015 election could pave the way for a potentially disruptive
exit from the European Union, RBC Wealth Management says.
Britain goes to the polls in May and the current government
has pledged to hold a referendum on EU membership in 2017 if it
wins another term in office.
LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) – The rouble inched lower on
Wednesday and Russian bond yields touched new five-year highs as
Moscow prepared for its first debt auction since October, while
a firmer dollar also took a toll on most other emerging
The rouble reversed some of the previous day’s gains to slip
0.3 percent as crude prices fell towards $78 a barrel and
the dollar index rose. Russian 10-year yields were around
10.4 percent, the highest since December 2009 ahead of an
auction of 5 billion roubles’ ($106.7 million) worth of two-year
treasury bonds. The last five sales were cancelled.
LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) – The rouble jumped 0.8 percent on
Tuesday and Russian shares rose after the European Union held
off imposing new sanctions though broader emerging equities
slipped for the fourth day, their mood soured by weak Chinese
The rouble rose to a five-session high to the dollar
as European Union governments sounded the alarm on an upsurge in
violence in Ukraine but took no action to impose further
sanctions on Moscow.
LONDON (Reuters) – A failure by the European Central Bank to act in time to prevent euro zone deflation could trigger a euro collapse in the long term, the CIO of a major European investment house said on Monday.
Hans Stoter of ING Investment Management, which runs $237 billion, is cautious on European equities and debt. While he expected the ECB to start full-fledged sovereign bond buying in the next six months, he said political resistance was stiff.
LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) – Western banks have seen their
fees from Russian deals collapse as sanctions squeeze
once-lucrative bond and equity business, but buoyant demand
elsewhere has already pushed fees from emerging market clients
10 percent higher than 2013′s levels.
A tit for tat round of sanctions between the United States
and Europe and Moscow over Russia’s involvement in eastern
Ukraine has seen capital raising by Russian companies forced to
a virtual halt. Just $10 billion was issued in new debt for
instance, a fraction of what was sold last year.
LONDON, Nov 10 (Reuters) – In Aug 2010, when a dollar
fetched 30 roubles, oil prices were on the rise, and Russia was
in high favour with investors, Gazprombank went to global bond
markets to borrow $1 billion.
Now as the debt comes up for repayment, Gazprombank
, like many of its Russian peers, is
shut out of global capital markets by Western sanctions imposed
over Moscow’s role in the Ukraine crisis. Oil, mainstay of the
Russian economy, has fallen to $84 per barrel and the rouble is
down 25 percent this year to 45 per dollar.
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) – The rouble may have plunged 25
percent against the dollar so far this year, but some currency
traders are betting on a further 10 percent drop in 2015 on the
grounds that the currency is still expensive once trade and
inflation are factored in.
Russia’s currency is on course for its biggest weekly
loss since early 2009 after the central bank decided to cap
daily dollar sales at $350 million – and investors interpreted
that to mean it would not shore up the rouble.
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) – The rouble crashed to new record
lows on Thursday after the central bank stepped back from its
daily multi-billion dollar currency interventions, with Russian
assets generally bucking a more stable emerging markets trend.
The central bank announced on Wednesday that it would limit
daily interventions to $350 million, a fraction of the amounts
it has been selling for many weeks to support the rouble, a
decision investors have interpreted as an effective move to a
floating exchange rate.
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) – Oil’s tumble to new four-year lows
on Wednesday prompted a heavy selloff of stocks and bonds in
energy-producing emerging markets from the Middle East to
Russia, while importer countries like India enjoyed the prospect
of cheaper fuel.
Expectations that the oil price will remain weak is creating
a sharp divergence between emerging markets that export energy
and those that import, with asset managers starting to shift
investments to the latter.