Investment strategy Correspondent
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Mar 16, 2015

All Ukraine creditors, not just bondholders, must restructure – IIF

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) – A $15.3 billion bill for
Ukraine’s private creditors as part of an IMF-led bailout is
unfair unless other sovereign or supra-national lenders have to
restructure debts too, the head of a global financial industry
body said on Monday.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF), which most
recently represented banks and asset managers during Greece’s
2012 debt swap, is not formally involved in Ukraine’s upcoming
restructuring talks. But says it has had informal discussions
with investors involved in the looming Ukraine workout.

Mar 16, 2015

Oil, dividends, cheap assets – return to Russia rewards investors

LONDON (Reuters) – Fund managers who bet on beaten-down Russian stocks and bonds have been rewarded with some of the best returns in emerging markets so far in 2015.

Foreign investors fled Russia last year, panicked by an oil price collapse, a simmering conflict on the Russia-Ukraine border and Western sanctions that effectively froze the country out of credit markets. The subsequent 50 percent plunge in the rouble’s exchange rate between May and December provided another catalyst for the exodus.

Mar 12, 2015

Emerging-market assets revive as dollar gives up gains

LONDON, March 12 (Reuters) – Emerging-market stocks
rebounded from two-month lows and currencies rose as the dollar
gave up some of its recent gains.

Ukraine’s credit default swaps fell 184 basis points after
the International Monetary Fund approved a $17.5 billion loan
package for the country, a decision that was widely expected.

Mar 11, 2015

IMF cash in bag, a debt moratorium may give Ukraine what it needs

LONDON (Reuters) – Ukraine, seeking to plug a $15 billion-plus funding gap via debt restructuring, may find that a multi-year payment moratorium does the trick, with investors possibly having to swallow a smaller eventual writedown than feared.

The country is expected to get the nod from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) later on Wednesday for a $17.5 billion loan package, and the fund assumes Kiev will get $15.4 billion from talks with creditors

Mar 11, 2015

Graphic – From fragile five to troubled trio

LONDON (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand, Turkey’s lira and Brazil’s real suffered some of the steepest losses in the recent emerging-market rout. Their peers in the so-called fragile five, India and Indonesia, escaped with less damage.

The five countries got their name in 2013, as hints emerged that the U.S. Federal Reserve would end its easy-money policy. Bound together by sizeable current account deficits and reliance on foreign capital, they looked vulnerable to shocks such as a strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates.

Mar 11, 2015

From fragile five to troubled trio

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) – South Africa’s rand, Turkey’s
lira and Brazil’s real suffered some of the steepest losses in
the recent emerging-market rout. Their peers in the so-called
fragile five, India and Indonesia, escaped with less damage.

The five countries got their name in 2013, as hints emerged
that the U.S. Federal Reserve would end its easy-money policy.
Bound together by sizeable current account deficits and reliance
on foreign capital, they looked vulnerable to shocks such as a
strong dollar and rising U.S. interest rates.

Mar 11, 2015

Lira, rand bounces seen short-lived as dollar flexes muscles

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) – The Turkish lira rose off
record lows on Wednesday, helped by better-than-expected current
account data though the dollar’s strength continued to exert
heavy pressure on currencies across emerging markets.

The sell-off that took emerging currencies to multi-year or
even record lows has forced many central banks to act, with
Singapore suspected to have intervened to lift its dollar while
state-run Chinese banks were believed to have sold dollars to
steady the yuan.

Mar 9, 2015

Dollar pressures markets; lira ends eight days of losses

LONDON, March 9 (Reuters) – Turkey’s lira snapped an
eight-day losing streak on Monday to trade just off record lows
to the dollar, and other European emerging-market currencies
firmed as the ECB began its bond-buying programme.

However, expectations of U.S. rate rises are under-cutting
most emerging markets. A robust jobs report in the United States
on Friday boosted the dollar to 11 1/2-year highs and pushed up
Treasury yields.

Mar 6, 2015

Local politics, dollar moves keep Turkish lira near record low

LONDON, March 6 (Reuters) – The Turkish lira hovered close
to record lows on Friday, hurt by investors’ fears of political
interference in monetary policy and by general jitters about
emerging markets which face headwinds from a resurgent dollar.

U.S. jobs data later in the day is expected to show an
increase in payrolls and a fall in the jobless rate, which could
signal the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates by
mid-year.

Mar 4, 2015

Mexico preparing for low oil prices; crude output fall- finance minister

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) – Falling oil production remains
the most important risk to Mexico’s economy this year and may
force the government to tighten spending further into 2016,
Mexican Finance Minister Luis Videgaray said on Tuesday.

Speaking to reporters at the London Stock Exchange,
Videgaray said the risk was that oil production could fall
further, following January’s output decline which sent
production to the lowest since mid-1990s.