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Nov 6, 2015

Reuters poll – Yuan, rupee seen to weaken only slightly as dollar rallies

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Chinese yuan and Indian rupee are expected to weaken over the course of the coming year, although not as much as other emerging market currencies, as expectations of higher interest rates in the U.S. boost the dollar, a Reuters poll found.

Global investors moved back into U.S. sovereign bonds and the dollar this week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signalled the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade could come as soon as next month.

Nov 6, 2015

Chinese yuan, Indian rupee seen to weaken only slightly as dollar rallies: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Chinese yuan and Indian rupee are expected to weaken over the course of the coming year, although not as much as other emerging market currencies, as expectations of higher interest rates in the U.S. boost the dollar, a Reuters poll found.

Global investors moved back into U.S. sovereign bonds and the dollar this week after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen signaled the Fed’s first rate hike in almost a decade could come as soon as next month.

Oct 30, 2015
via MacroScope

Bank of Japan reruns inflation downgrade script

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After over a decade-and-a-half of aggressive monetary easing through asset purchases, the Bank of Japan still has to revise down its inflation projections just about every six months, almost like clockwork.

On Friday, BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, while keeping the central bank’s massive stimulus programme at a steady pace, said inflation is now expected to hit the BOJ’s 2 percent target sometime late next year or in early 2017, not mid-2016.

Oct 29, 2015
via MacroScope

U.S. growth probably slowed sharply in Q3…and winter is coming

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It’s probably a good thing the Federal Reserve concluded its latest policy meeting with a strong signal of its intentions, because GDP growth data expected later on Thursday are unlikely to cement rate hike views one way or another.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday kept the possibility of a hike at the Dec 15-16 meeting firmly on the agenda by specifically referring to it and saying consumer spending and business investment were increasing at solid rates.

Oct 27, 2015

ECB almost certain to ease in Dec by boosting QE, cutting deposit rate: Reuters poll

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – It is now almost certain the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy in December, increasing or extending its stimulus program and further cutting the deposit rate, a Reuters poll of economists found.

ECB President Mario Draghi last week signaled that the Governing Council would act if needed to ensure inflation rose to its target of near 2 percent from -0.1 percent in September.

Oct 15, 2015

ECB to extend QE beyond September 2016, but monthly total to hold: poll

By Sumanta Dey and Deepti Govind

(Reuters) – The European Central Bank will extend its stimulus program beyond September 2016, according to economists in a Reuters poll who were less decided on whether it would spend more than the current 60 billion euros a month in bond purchases.

Launched just over six months ago, the ECB’s quantitative easing program has so far done little to boost inflation, drive growth or even keep the euro low for a sustained period, the goals the central bank had hoped the stimulus would achieve.

Oct 9, 2015

Emerging Asia FX to fall further on dollar rally, China fears

Oct 9 (Reuters) – Emerging Asian currencies are expected to
fall further over the coming year as a regional economic
slowdown, led by China, and prospects of higher interest rates
in the U.S. propel the dollar higher, a Reuters poll showed.

Asian currencies have weathered the recent turmoil in
financial markets and the relentless dollar rally over the past
year relatively better than other emerging market assets.

Oct 7, 2015

No end in sight for EM currency drop as economies flop: poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies will slide further in coming months as investors fret over a slowdown in the global economy and seek safer havens, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Forecasts for currencies including the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand suggested the greenback is likely to set new highs against major emerging currencies, despite the Federal Reserve’s hesitation over when to raise rates off zero.

Oct 7, 2015

No end in sight for EM currency drop as economies flop – Reuters poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Emerging market currencies will slide further in coming months as investors fret over a slowdown in the global economy and seek safer havens, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.

Forecasts for currencies including the Brazilian real, the Turkish lira and the South African rand suggested the greenback is likely to set new highs against major emerging currencies, despite the Federal Reserve’s hesitation over when to raise rates off zero.

Oct 5, 2015

Euro zone September business growth at four-month low: PMI

LONDON (Reuters) – Euro zone business activity grew at its weakest pace in four months during September but in one encouraging sign for the European Central Bank, service firms raised prices for the first time in four years, surveys showed on Monday.

The data point to modest third-quarter growth of 0.4 percent, survey compiler Markit said, and are likely to largely disappoint policymakers, six months into the ECB’s 60 billion euros ($68 billion) a month quantitative easing program.

    • About Sumanta

      "Sumanta Dey is a senior correspondent on the Reuters Polls team. Based in Bangalore, he writes stories on consensus expectations for the euro zone and Asian economies and financial markets. He first joined the Bangalore newsroom in 2006 and returned after a stint at software giant Infosys, where he managed analytics projects of a global consumer products manufacturer. He holds an economics degree from Bangalore University."
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