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Jun 25, 2015

Higher policy rates to push up major sovereign bond yields: Reuters poll

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – Major government bond yields will rise over the next year on expectations of higher policy rates in the United States and possibly Britain, although a subdued inflation outlook will cap increases, a Reuters poll predicted.

After years in which near-zero interest rates and central bank stimulus have kept yields super-low or negative, a bond market sell-off in the last three months has seen benchmark German, U.S. and British sovereign bond yields spike upwards.

Jun 23, 2015

France drives euro zone business surge in June; China, Japan lag

By Sumanta Dey and Wayne Cole

(Reuters) – A resurgence of activity in France helped euro zone businesses expand at their fastest rate in four years this month, the clearest sign yet that the European Central Bank’s stimulus is driving a solid recovery in the region.

But loose monetary policy in China and Japan failed to prevent factory activity there from contracting, Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys showed.

Jun 23, 2015

Euro zone business growth accelerates in June to four-year high: PMI

June 23 (Reuters) – - Euro zone private businesses expanded at their fastest pace in four years this month, a survey showed on Tuesday, providing the clearest signs yet of a solid recovery in the region.

The bright readings for the euro zone were complimented by surveys out of Germany and France, the bloc’s two largest economies, which showed both factories and services firms grew much more quickly than expected.

Jun 16, 2015

Even chance of Greece default; one-in-three probability of exit: Reuters poll

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – There is an even chance of Greece defaulting on its debt payments, according to economists polled by Reuters, although the probability of it leaving the euro zone is still only one-in-three.

After months of negotiations between Greece and its creditors, talks abruptly derailed on Sunday leaving Athens with about two weeks to find a way out of the deadlock before a 1.6 billion euro ($1.8 billion) payment to the International Monetary Fund is due.

Jun 5, 2015

Rupee to fall to its weakest in years on dollar rally – Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The rupee will weaken to its lowest in several years over the next 12 months as the economy struggles to pick up momentum and on expectations that an impending rise in U.S. interest rates will keep the dollar on a steadily strengthening path.

The rupee has largely held its ground against a surging dollar so far, falling just 1.5 percent since the start of the year even as the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates three times in an effort to shore up the economy, most recently on Tuesday.

Jun 5, 2015

Indian rupee to fall to its weakest in years on dollar rally; yuan stable: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Indian rupee will weaken to its lowest in several years over the next 12 months as the economy struggles to pick up momentum and on expectations that an impending rise in U.S. interest rates will keep the dollar on a steadily strengthening path.

The rupee INR=IN has largely held its ground against a surging dollar so far, falling just 1.5 percent since the start of the year even as the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates three times in an effort to shore up the economy, most recently on Tuesday.

Jun 5, 2015

Indian rupee to fall to its weakest in years on dollar rally; yuan stable

BENGALURU, June 5 (Reuters) – The Indian rupee will weaken
to its lowest in several years over the next 12 months as the
economy struggles to pick up momentum and on expectations that
an impending rise in U.S. interest rates will keep the dollar on
a steadily strengthening path.

The rupee has largely held its ground against a
surging dollar so far, falling just 1.5 percent since the start
of the year even as the Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates
three times in an effort to shore up the economy, most recently
on Tuesday.

May 28, 2015

ECB seen meeting balance sheet expansion target, shutting QE in Sept 2016-Reuters poll

May 28 (Reuters) – The European Central Bank will be able to
meet its balance sheet expansion target and shut the asset
purchase programme as planned in September 2016, a Reuters poll
of economists showed on Thursday.

The ECB started buying 60 billion euros of mainly sovereign
bonds each month in March, intending to expand its balance sheet
by a trillion euros in total. It was an attempt to try to boost
very low inflation and to kick start growth.

May 19, 2015

Euro zone on sustainable recovery; growth to remain weak-Reuters poll

May 19 (Reuters) – The euro zone economy is on a sustainable
recovery path although growth will plateau from here on,
according to a majority of economists polled by Reuters.

But the risk of a Greek debt default, along with a recent
run up in oil prices, has kept economists cautious and reluctant
to forecast a major revival.

May 8, 2015

Rupee to remain weak on Fed-fueled dollar rally; yuan seen stable – Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The rupee will remain weak against the dollar over the coming year on expectations that an impending rate hike by the Federal Reserve will boost U.S. bond yields and investors will shun emerging economies, a Reuters poll showed.

Bond yield differentials traditionally drive currencies by influencing where investors put their money but massive amounts of central bank stimulus and money printing since the financial crisis has dented yields in developed economies.

    • About Sumanta

      "Sumanta Dey is poll and economic data correspondent for Asia on the Reuters Polls team. Based out of Bangalore, he is responsible for overseeing polling efforts in the region as well as handling several key projects. He first joined the Bangalore newsroom in 2006 and returned after a stint at software giant Infosys, where he managed analytics projects of a global consumer products manufacturer. He holds an economics degree from Bangalore University."
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