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Sep 4, 2015
via MacroScope

Silver lining for emerging FX: little room to fall more

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If there is any silver lining for emerging market currencies after their thrashing in August, it is that they are probably now so cheap they don’t have much room to weaken any further.

At least that was the consensus view of over 150 foreign exchange strategists polled by Reuters this week, in which they predicted almost every major emerging market currency from Latin America to Central Europe, through Africa and on to Asia would gain in twelve months’ time.

Sep 4, 2015

Chinese yuan seen depreciating further; rupee to remain stable: Reuters poll

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The Chinese yuan will weaken further over the next 12 months as policymakers ramp up efforts to support the economy through further stimulus or another currency devaluation, a Reuters poll found.

The People’s Bank of China sent shockwaves through global financial markets on Aug. 11 by devaluing the currency by nearly 2 percent, triggering fears of a currency war.

Sep 4, 2015

Chinese yuan seen depreciating further; rupee to remain stable

BENGALURU, Sept 4 (Reuters) – The Chinese yuan will weaken
further over the next 12 months as policymakers ramp up efforts
to support the economy through further stimulus or another
currency devaluation, a Reuters poll found.

The People’s Bank of China sent shockwaves through global
financial markets on Aug. 11 by devaluing the currency by nearly
2 percent, triggering fears of a currency war.

Sep 3, 2015

China biggest concern for emerging FX; real most prone to sell-off: Reuters poll

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – China’s struggle with an economic slowdown will haunt foreign exchange markets for months to come, a Reuters poll showed, even if many emerging currencies are considered somewhat cheap after months of a relentless sell-off.

While speculation over U.S. interest rates will also weigh heavily, with only a few days to go until a Federal Reserve meeting in which some economists say it could raise rates, the chances of China devaluing its currency further is likely to hold more sway over financial markets.

Sep 3, 2015

China biggest concern for emerging FX; real most prone to sell-off

BRASILIA/BENGALURU (Reuters) – China’s struggle with an economic slowdown will haunt foreign exchange markets for months to come, a Reuters poll showed, even if many emerging currencies are considered somewhat cheap after months of a relentless sell-off.

While speculation over U.S. interest rates will also weigh heavily, with only a few days to go until a Federal Reserve meeting in which some economists say it could raise rates, the chances of China devaluing its currency further is likely to hold more sway over financial markets.

Sep 1, 2015
via MacroScope

Weak growth may force India’s central bank to reconsider inflation focus

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For all its single-minded focus on lowering inflation, India’s central bank may be forced to acknowledge slowing growth in Asia’s third largest economy by cutting interest rates — probably faster than it expected.

The Reserve Bank of India has so far resisted calls from the government and businesses to ease policy rapidly and instead focused, almost with a hawk’s eye, on inflation.

Aug 28, 2015

China’s central bank likely to ease policy again by end-December: Reuters poll

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – China’s central bank is highly likely to ease monetary policy again by the end of this year, according to economists surveyed by Reuters, as it seeks to support a rapidly cooling economy and calm financial markets.

The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates and lowered the amount of reserves banks must hold for the second time in two months on Tuesday, acting amid pressure from a global stock market rout and massive outflows from its markets.

Aug 28, 2015

Growing chance ECB may extend QE programme beyond Sept 2016 – Reuters poll

By Sumanta Dey

(Reuters) – There is a growing chance the European Central Bank may extend its stimulus programme beyond September 2016, owing to concerns a sharp fall in commodity prices and a recent rally in the euro will keep inflation subdued, a Reuters poll showed.

Almost half a year into its monthly 60 billion euros ($68 billion) of mainly sovereign bond purchases, inflation in the euro zone is stuck at a meagre 0.2 percent with little hope it will rebound any time soon.

Aug 27, 2015
via MacroScope

Second Fed rate hike delay this year slowly getting more official

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Financial markets have all but shut the door to a Federal Reserve rate hike in September, following a rout in stocks, currencies and commodities this past week, but economy watchers are only now warming up to the idea — in public at least.

UniCredit And Credit Agricole on Thursday became the latest major forecasters to change their September call, following Barclays’ move earlier this week to delay predictions for the first U.S. rate hike in nearly a decade by six months to March 2016.

Aug 25, 2015
via MacroScope

Fed on horns of not-so-bullish dilemma: markets or economy?

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The Federal Reserve increasingly looks stuck on the horns of a not-so-bullish dilemma: should it pay attention to global developments in financial markets, which argue for pause, or should it focus squarely on U.S. economic data, which suggest the time is nigh to hike?

In what has been a brutal start to the week for global stock markets, commodities and currencies, another delay in the U.S. Federal Reserve’s long-awaited first interest rate hike in nearly a decade is now priced into markets.

    • About Sumanta

      "Sumanta Dey is poll and economic data correspondent for Asia on the Reuters Polls team. Based out of Bangalore, he is responsible for overseeing polling efforts in the region as well as handling several key projects. He first joined the Bangalore newsroom in 2006 and returned after a stint at software giant Infosys, where he managed analytics projects of a global consumer products manufacturer. He holds an economics degree from Bangalore University."
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