Losing faith in the dollar

July 2, 2008

No country has been a bigger fan of the dollar over the years as Japan. You can see it in the country’s $1 trillion of foreign exchange reserves almost entirely concentrated in U.S. bonds or the sheer portfolio flows in the greenback month after month. But that may be changing. Yuuki Sakurai, head of financial planning and investment at Japan’s No. 9 life insurer Fukoku Mutual Life, said the dollar’s long role as the centre of the global currency universe may be coming to an end, partly due to politics. “Look at the U.S. position in the world community, that’s changing and that’s part of the story. I think Pax Americana, that regime is gone. But it’s not happening overnight, it’s changing gradually,” said Sakurai, whose oversees about $54 billion of assets, while speaking at the Reuters Japan Investment Summit. “If you think that a paradigm based on the dollar may be starting to change and that the euro’s weight globally may come close to matching the dollar’s presence, the dollar might fall to 80 yen in the future,” Sakurai said. “I am saying something a bit extreme, but the dollar might fall below 50 yen 10 years from now,” he said. The dollar is near 106.50 yen now, up from a 13-year low of 95.77 yen in March, but it is still not far from record lows against the euro.

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Sure, the dollar, as the Fed and the politics are acting like banana republic (priting money, spending and huge deficit), unless a radical change, the dollar deserve to be even lower and even more rapidly.
But as the major commodities are labelled in dollars, the dollar barely breaths over the murky water it has created.
It is not because it is written “In god we trust” that means the dollar is backed by whoever the god is !!!

Posted by louis | Report as abusive