Dubai returns to the fixed-income sphere for the first time in more than a year after raising about $2 billion from dirham and dollar-denominated Islamic bonds.

Confidence in the emirate had run aground earlier this year as investors bet on Dubai’s state-linked entities not being able refinance debt. So far, this year it has met all its obligations and with the fresh issue booking about $6.5 billion from regional and international investors, Dubai’s doomsday scenario appears to be vanishing. 

With much of the United Arab Emirates’ oil coming from the largest of the emirates Abu Dhabi, investors have flocked to the capital this year as appetite for good emerging market debt revives. The spread between Abui Dhabi and Dubai widened at its peak to over 500 basis points in February, but Dubai government efforts to restore confidence — kickstarted by the UAE central bank buying $10 billion of its bonds — has helped spreads narrow to about 200 basis points.

Dubai still has a long way go. The next test will be property developer Nakheel resolving its $3.5 billion Islamic bond maturing on Dec. 14 and then a raft of debts in 2010…..but as Harold Wilson once said, ”A week’s long time in politics.”  

The headline in the Gulf News English language daily reads 'UAE tops world on per capita carbon footprint'.

For a place so reliably bathed in sunlight, the Dubai property explosion seems to have generated enough construction noise to drown out the environmental debate raging elsewhere in the world.

For the first-time visitor, the scale of the global construction superlatives - The Palm, made from reclaimed land jutting out defiantly into the Gulf, the skyscrapers built in a region where there is no shortage of space - is staggering.

The amount of environmentally 'sinfull' concrete poured over the last decade is ncalculable. Billboards lauding the benefits of solar power look like a bit of an after thought.

Climate change was just beginning to take hold as an issue for property developers when the economic downturn struck and put paid to nascent environmental ambitions.  "Green is not cheap," says Markus Giebel, chief executive of Dubai property group Deyaar Development. "Dubai was on the right track, but there's no money now. People are thinking about survival."

Dubai has sufficient superlatives – record-setting landmarks unique in their size, cost or concept -- to last it for the next decade – so enough already, says Deyaar CEO Markus Giebel.

“I endorse having the tallest building in the world, the first seven-star hotel in the world, the palm,” he says. “What I don’t endorse are attempts to now outdo these superlatives…they are going to last us the next 10 to 15 years.”

Dubai is home -- amongst other attractions -- to the world's largest indoor ski slope, the world's tallest tower, and the world's first, albeit self-rated, seven-star hotel that also sports its own Rolls Royce fleet and helicopter landing platform. The global financial crisis brought a real estate boom in the emirate to a screeching halt, leading to a raft of new, hugely ambitious projects  -- including a 1-km high tower and the world's largest mall -- to be shelved or delayed.

Coming out of one of the darkest recessions, have we learned the lesson at all? Or are we going to repeat the mistakes of the past again?

Khuram Maqsood, managing director of boutique corporate financing advisory firm Emirates Capital, thinks we may well repeat them.

He says a second wave in the downturn – if it comes at all – is unlikely to come from a new, unseen fault in world markets.

“The second wave’s going to come from exactly the same place the first wave came from –which is short attention spans, short memories,” he tells Reuters Investment summit in Dubai.

“Even in 2009 you’re beginning to see some of the issues that brought the global economy to its knees creeping up again, like executive pay for example.

“Again we’re beginning to see too much leverage seeping into different parts of the global economy, so it seems there are similar things which encroach back into the playing field and I think that’s the risk.”

Starting Monday, Reuters is inviting  business leaders from various sectors in Dubai, Riyadh and Cairo to discuss key challenges facing them in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and the lessons they have learnt.

Is the downturn over or are we set for a double-dip? Will buyers flock back to Dubai's property bonanza or will they stay away for the foreseeable future? Will the oil-reliant economies of the Gulf manage to diversify as they had hoped at the start of the boom in 2002 or will they continue to rest on their barrels of crude? Read this for a preview.

   Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital was a big backer of Moscow’s ambition to become a major emerging-markets financial centre, a bridge between European and Asian capital, a rival to Dubai.

    It not only trumpeted the idea, but was one of the first big local firms to take out offices in a sleek glass skyscraper by the Moscow River, surrounded by foundation pits and towers of naked steel girders that were to become Moscow’s Canary Wharf.

Dubai's deepening real estate slump has brought unexpected benefits to its time-poor urban residents.

Speaking at the Global Islamic Financing Summit, Dr. Humayon Dar, CEO of Shariah-compliant consultancy BMB Islamic, said Dubai was a much nicer place to live now that the immature infrastructure system was not overwhelmed with construction traffic and armies of property speculators.

"When you got to Dubai you will find that right now, traffic is actually much less but people like me like it because I used to be stuck in that traffic all the time," Dar said, eyes agleam. "But now, going from A to B is so fun - I like it."

The desert city - famed for its dramatic skyline and commonly referred to as the Gulf's biggest building site - is reeling from a global meltdown in demand for its unique brand of luxury real estate.  Dozens of development projects worth billions of dollars have been axed, threatening the livelihood of thousands of construction workers and their families.

But those banking on a rapid rally in Dubai's property market can draw some comfort from Dar, who believes the city will recover quickly -- with a little help from its wealthy neighbours.

"People who know the market say actually this is the time to invest... In the past whenever there is a problem in Dubai, the big brother sitting in Abu Dhabi comes to rescue. This time they took their time because they wanted to teach a lesson to Sheikh Mohammed because he was trying to be a renegade boy.

"Many people say Dubai is just gone, hopeless. But Dubai will never, ever go away. It has achieved a level of economic development which will help him to come out of this crisis...My own assessment is that the worst is over," he said. "That is a statement you wouldn't hear from very many people."

It’s not just traditional western banks that are hurting — the recession is hitting Islamic finance hard, too.

The industry, which operates according to Islamic law and hence has an in-built conservative investment strategy, is seen as relatively insulated from the financial crisis. But some executives at the Reuters Islamic Banking and Finance Summit are not so sure.

Islamic finance should still be able to combat the crisis better than conventional banks but big problems loom if liquidity remains tight. In fact Sohail Zubairi, head of consultancy Dar Al Sharia, reckons they’re facing up to a crisis scenario that could include forced consolidation and layoffs.

“There is a real threat to the business of Islamic banking,” Zubairi told Reuters reporters at the summit in Dubai. “If the liquidity does not return, we will not be able to continue doing our business.”

Yousif Khalaf, head of Ajman Bank, thinks the situation is so bad that growth and profitability are off the menu for this year.

“What is more important is survival and, to some extent, continuity,” he said. “People want to make sure they survive.”

PHOTO CREDIT: A labourer walks inside Sheikh Zayed mosque in Abu Dhabi April 7, 2009. The mosque, one of the world’s largest, is named after Sheikh Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahayan the founder and first president of the UAE who is also buried there. REUTERS/Ahmed Jadallah

This week we had the opportunity to speak with Mohsin Khan, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the former head of the Middle East department at the International Monetary Fund, ahead of the 2009 Reuters Islamic Banking and Finance Summit. I asked him why he thought that the once red-hot market for Islamic bonds had slowed to a trickle. Khan says some of the largest issuers of Islamic bonds, or sukuk, were real estate developers and the reason corporations are reluctant to buy or issue sukuk these days is due in large part to the continuing decline in the value of real estate in Dubai. Click below to listen:
Kahn on sukuk issues from Reuters TV on Vimeo.

The Reuters Middle East Investment Summit in Dubai was hit by the whirlwind visit of British Prime Minister Gordon Brown across the Gulf as he looked to drum up support for ailing British firms and convince Gulf investors the IMF’s bailout fund was a safe place to put their cash. After courting Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi, it was a fleeting visit to the region’s commercial hub Dubai. As his motorcade flew passed the world’s tallest tower But hark…we have seen this before. President George Bush headed to the United Arab Emirates more than a year ago. But that’s where the similarities stop. For Mr Bush, Dubai ground to a halt. Chaos ensued. Streets were closed. Workers sent home. The President was in town, so that was that. Fast forward November 4, 2008. Mr Brown is here. Dubai is business as usual, although The Prime Minister’s motorcade did delay a speaker for the Reuters summit. Perhaps the credit crunch has meant random days off are no longer on the Dubai agenda……. unless you’re the President of course.