Summit Notebook

from Tales from the Trail:

This time, some Democrats are embracing “Obamacare”

June 27, 2012

 

Fierce opposition to President Barack Obama's healthcare bill helped propel Republicans to big victories in the 2010 mid-term elections, when they won a majority of seats in the House of Representatives and cut into the Democratic majority in the Senate.

from Tales from the Trail:

Obama letter brings Democratic donors out of the woodwork

June 27, 2012

A fundraising appeal from President Barack Obama on Monday netted Democratic Congressional candidates their biggest online fundraising day ever, New York Congressman Steve Israel said at the Reuters Washington Summit.

from Tales from the Trail:

For Portman, it all comes down to beer

June 26, 2012

Rob Portman is upset about the tax laws that make a real American beer hard to find.

from Tales from the Trail:

Outside campaign groups can coordinate – with each other

June 25, 2012

 

Super PACs and other outside campaign organizations are barred from coordinating with the candidates they support or political parties, but there is nothing keeping a Super PAC from coordinating with another Super PAC, or several Super PACs. And indeed, some of them do.

from Tales from the Trail:

Blunt says to keep an eye on Virginia

June 25, 2012

Missouri Senator Roy Blunt, a Republican who is Mitt Romney's point person in Congress, doesn't think Ohio or Florida will be the main states to watch on election night. He will have his eyes on Virginia.

Demoplicans or Repocrats? A look at stock market performance and politics

June 9, 2008

Compiled by Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research Group

    There have been five terms out of the last 16 where the last year of the term has a negative return on the DOW, and four of those terms have been during a Republican president’s term. When we look at the previous 90 day returns before the new term, we see that the markets are generally positive (only four negative in the last 16 terms). Elections are generally held in the first week of November. When we take the previous 60 day returns before the new term (from Nov. 20 – Jan. 20), we see that the DOW returns are even more positive, with only two terms out of 16 preceded by negative returns in the previous 60 days. This says that the lack of uncertainty after the elections usually give a boost to the market. Only three four year terms have had negative returns. 1973-1981 (Oil crisis) and 2001-2005 (Dubya’s first term). On average, the 90 days before the new term performs much better (3%) than the 90 days after the new term starts (1.1%). The last three terms have started with negative returns in the first 90 days. Since WW2, the Dems have had 7 terms and the Republicans have 8 (excluding the 2005-2009 Dubya term). The Dems have done slightly better (8.3% vs. 6.7%) in terms of average annualized returns over this period. However, these numbers are skewed in their favor because of the Clinton-Bubble era.