Summit Notebook

from Global Investing:

BRIC: Brilliant/Ridiculous Investment Concept

BRIC is Brazil, Russia, India, China -- the acronym coined by Goldman Sachs banker Jim O'Neill 10 years back to describe the world's biggest, fastest-growing and most important emerging markets.  But according to Albert Edwards, Societe Generale's uber-bearish strategist, it also stands for Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept. Some investors, licking their wounds due to BRIC markets' underperformance in 2011 and 2010, might be inclined to agree -- stocks in all four countries have performed worse this year than the broader emerging markets equity index, to say nothing of developed world equities.

For years, money has chased BRIC investments, tempted by the countries' fast growth, huge populations and explosive consumer hunger for goods and services. But Edwards cites research showing little correlation between growth and investment returns. He points out that Chinese nominal GDP growth may have averaged 15.6 percent  since 1993 but the compounded  return on equity investments was minus 3.3 percent.

But economic growth -- the BRIC holy grail -- is also now slowing. Data showed this week that Brazil posted zero growth in the third quarter of 2011 compared to last year's 7.5 percent. Indian growth is  at the weakest in over two years. In Russia, rising discontent with the Kremlin -- reflected in post-election protests -- carries the risk of hitting the broader economy. And China, facing falling exports to a moribund Western world,  is also bound to slow. Edwards goes a step further and flags a hard landing in China as the biggest potential investment shock of 2012.  "Yet investors persist in the BRIC superior growth fantasy...If growth does matter to investors, they should be worried that things seem to be slowing sharply in the BRIC universe," he writes.

Thomson Reuters data earlier this year appeared to show some disenchantment with the BRIC concept. After rising 1600-fold between 2003 and 2007, assets in BRIC funds had shrunk to $28 billion by August 2011, almost a quarter below 2007 peaks, a bigger fall in percentage terms than most other fund categories.

What of O'Neill, the man behind the moniker? He talks increasingly of Growth Markets, a broader grouping that also includes other promising emerging countries such as Turkey and Mexico. But at a Reuters investment summit this week O'Neill noted that the main reason for BRIC stocks' underperformance has been a massive monetary policy tightening exercise in all four countries, prompted by rising inflation.  With that at an end and valuations cheaper than they have been for a long time, he expects the BRIC markets, especiallly China, to do better next year despite slower growth. Time will tell.

from Sakthi Prasad:

India Investment Summit comes to Bangalore

Executives of real estate, technology and pharmaceutical firms will be exclusively talking to Reuters journalists about their companies’ growth plans, challenges they face and business opportunities that are available within the wider context of India investment story.

Stay tuned.

A bubble in the real estate market?

Have you tried buying or renting a house in Mumbai recently? If so, then I won’t be surprised if you think real estate prices are plain expensive, and incredibly so. But that’s almost always been the case in India’s commercial capital. After all, when was the last time someone told you they got a cheap house in the city?

So is the real estate market in a bubble? We asked Adi Godrej, the man who controls Godrej Properties, if things could get bubblicious. This is what he had to say: “I don’t think we are in a bubble, because demand is strong, but we could get into a bubble.”

Godrej, whose family fortune is estimated to be about $5.2 billion, doesn’t really care if prices go up in south Mumbai’s old-money neighbourhoods such as Malabar Hill or Altamont Road, where Reliance Industries chairman, billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is building a 27-storey $1 billion home.

“I would be more disturbed if middle-level and lower-level housing in Mumbai were to go up much,” Godrej told the Reuters India Investment Summit in Mumbai.

Godrej Properties, which is developing a lot of what is termed ‘affordable housing’, expects revenue to jump more than 50 percent in the fiscal year ending in March as rising incomes boost demand for housing.

If prices continued to increase at current supply levels, the Indian residential market could head into a “bubble.”

The company, part of the $2.5 billion diversified Godrej group, defines ‘affordable housing’ as an apartment that carries a price tag of less than 2,500,000 rupees or $50,000. Is that within your budget?

Paranoid governments and conspiracy theories

Adi Godrej, who marshals his namesake $2.5 billion diversified group, believes the Indian government is “paranoid” about the possible effects of allowing more foreign investments into sectors such as airlines.

“They (the Indian government) have not allowed foreign airlines to invest in private airlines, and they cite security. I don’t see what security would be compromised,” Godrej told the Reuters India Investment Summit in Mumbai.

“If British Airways or Delta got to own part of an Indian private airline, they are worried about what would happen in times of a war, etc. You are in control of your country. What can they do in difficult times to stop it?” he said.

Godrej also said that allowing more private players into sectors such as roads and education would help lift India away from infrastructure perils plaguing the country.

It’s not hard to think of Indian government officials sitting at their gnarled desks in crumbling office buildings doing what Mel Gibson’s character did in the movie Conspiracy Theory. But as Mel Gibson discovers, the enemy probably lies within. How’s that for a conspiracy?

Recession’s perfect storm speeds up change in ad industry

Why is it that the United States’ advertising as a proportion of marketing services is at its lowest point since 1977, maybe even lower than since the Second World War?

You may have guessed it it’s the recession.

But it will get better, Martin Sorrell, CEO of advertising giant WPP, said.

“The recession is less worse,” Sorrell said, repeating a favourite phrase of late, and while it’s the biggest recession since 1929 it is also “a perfect storm” that has brought forward change. 

“The recession has accelerated structural changes that were already happening,” Sorrell said at the Reuters Global Media Summit.

Will advertising ever go back to where it was? Yes, if you are looking at new media advertising on Kindles and mobile.

Will the United States rebound? Western Europe? Yes, to both.

60-hour work weeks, all in the name of climate change

Some politicians may be accused of dragging their heels when it comes to dealing with climate change, but you can’t say members of the United Nations’ Clean Development Mechanism’s executive board aren’t clocking in the hours.

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an emissions trading scheme under the Kyoto Protocol worth $33 billion last year according to the World Bank, allows companies and countries to outsource their greenhouse gas reduction efforts by investing in clean energy projects in emerging countries like China and India, where making emissions cuts costs less.

Projects are submitted to the CDM for registration and a staff of over 100 examine and scrutinize each one to ensure environmental integrity.

The whole scheme is supervised by a 20-member executive board, chaired by Lex de Jonge of the Netherlands’ environment ministry.

“The members are all employed by governments and assigned to the board. They don’t get a salary from the UN but they receive a daily subsistence allowance to pay for meals, hotel and travel costs,” de Jonge said at the Reuters Climate and Alternative Energy Summit.

“As chair of the board, I spend 75% of my time on CDM issues and 25% on domestic issues relating to my actual job,” he added.

The CDM’s executive board holds some 7 to 8 week-long meetings a year, up from 5 meetings in 2005, the year international emissions trading really began to take shape.

Expect action in Japanese M&A

After falling off a cliff at the start of this year as the global financial crisis gripped, mergers and acquisitions by Japanese companies overseas are likely to pick up again in the second half of this year, according to boutique Japanese M&A advisory firm Recof Corp.

There won’t be a flood of deals, Recof President Hikari Imai says, but the ones there are, are likely to be chunky as Japanese companies expand their frontiers beyond domestic markets where growth prospects are limited.

Geographically the focus is likely to be Asia — China, India in particular and possibly the Philippines or Australia. And the types of companies looking abroad will broaden as well, Imai told the Reuters Japan Investment Summit.

Recof expects Japanese power utilities, paper, food and beverage and retailing firms to look abroad at markets where they can put their advanced technology and inventory control systems to use.

The sort of companies that up till now have been focused on their home base. Driving all of this will be expectations of lack of growth in Japan’s own markets as it climbs slowly out of recession and its population ages — and saturation domestically.

So Imai reckons yen strength and the big drop in stock markets everywhere mean it may be an opportune moment for companies with overseas ambitions.

AUDIO – For Nordson — “Get ‘em right, or get ‘em out”

Throughout the current recession, many of the companies’ executives at this week’s Reuters Manufacturing and Transportation Summit have found an opportunity to review, pare back and possibly add on to their existing business mixes.

Such is the case for Edward Campbell, chief executive of Nordson Corp, which has a uniquely diversified set of businesses under its umbrella and is looking at what makes sense for them going forward.

Campbell makes the clear point that if something isn’t working for Nordson long term, the company has a responsibility to really consider whether that is a business they should be in.

Nordson makes a wide range of precision dispensing, testing and inspection, surface preparation and curing products. Its products can be found in everything from appliances to autos to bookbinding to furniture. It operates in three segments: adhesive dispensing systems, advanced technology systems and industrial coating and automotive systems.

Campbell said all of its businesses were subject to review, but did mention a couple that might be pared back in the attached audio clip.

Campbell was one of the featured speakers for the third day of the annual Manufacturing and Transportation Summit, which continues through Thursday in our Chicago offices. The Summit program is in its fifth year, and in 2009 will include top-level executives from  industries and sectors including everything from Infrastructure; to Mining; to Investing in India, China, Japan and Russia; to Food and Beverages.

AUDIO – Staying the course at CAT — But it’s a rough row to hoe

Caterpillar Inc Group President Ed Rapp knows that 2009 has been a tough one for his company, but he still thinks they can hit their numbers on revenue and earnings per share.

Speaking at the Reuters Manufacturing and Transportation Summit, Rapp (who, incidentally, has been with Caterpillar for almost 30 years and is still considered something of a “youngster” there!!) said that while there are still many hurdles for the company to avoid in the short term, he thought CAT’s previous guidance was within reach.

Rapp said he remains worried about the state of the credit markets and said government efforts to stabilize banking had yet to cut the cost of borrowing for captive finance companies. But his optimism comes from the sometimes painful steps the company has made in the past few months to cut costs and realign their business thinking.

Rapp is one of a team of six executives under CEO Jim Owens who run CAT’s day-to-day operations.

His presentation was one of the Tuesday highlights at this year’s summit, which runs through Thursday in our Chicago offices.

The Reuters Summit program is in its fifth year, and in 2009 will include top-level executives from  industries and sectors including everything from Infrastructure; to Mining; to Investing in India, China, Japan and Russia; to Food and Beverages.

Audio – Outsourcing daily life

At the Reuters India Investment Summit we asked Managing Partner of IBM Global Services Sandip Patel about the first thing he would like to outsource from his daily life. His response, perhaps instinctively, was automating the cleanup of thousands of his emails.

Anantha Radhakrishnan, Vice President at Infosys BPO, yearned for extended telecommuting to cut down on travel time (and probably cost as well!!) when asked the same question.

Evidently, productivity improvements and radical cost-cutting measures are weighing heavily on the minds of corporate big wigs these days.

The BPO services industry, which was once able to fund disproportionately high wages and lavish perks for employees, is now plagued with rumours of disappearing stationary and depleting entertainment budgets all in the name of cutting costs.