Exclusive outtakes from industry leaders
from Tales from the Trail:
Super PACs and other outside campaign organizations are barred from coordinating with the candidates they support or political parties, but there is nothing keeping a Super PAC from coordinating with another Super PAC, or several Super PACs. And indeed, some of them do.
Jonathan Collegio, director of public relations for American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS, Karl Rove's conservative Super PAC and non-profit, said outside groups on the right work together all the time.
"There's a lot of coordination among outside groups on the right, all of which is allowed," he said at the Reuters Washington Summit on Monday. "Starting in 2010, Crossroads started bringing together a lot of the organizations that were going to be spending a lot of money in the issue and election debate. The goal there was to maximize the efficiency of what everyone was doing."
Although he would not list the groups, he said several have met to cooperate by sharing polling information and research, and also to minimize the risks that that the television advertisements they buy will compete with one another. "Crossroads encouraged a number of the groups to share polling information, research and also to share the scheduling of their media buy information," he said.
from Tales from the Trail:
Missouri Senator Roy Blunt, a Republican who is Mitt Romney's point person in Congress, doesn't think Ohio or Florida will be the main states to watch on election night. He will have his eyes on Virginia.
In an interview at the annual Reuters Washington Summit, Blunt was asked which state was the one to monitor in the run-up to the Nov. 6 election between President Barack Obama and Romney.
Talk in western Europe of possibly nationalising private banks to save them from the credit crisis is sending shivers down the spine of policymakers in ex-communist central Europe.
They remember how their government controlled financial systems completely collapsed in the 1990s and threatened to take the countries’ economies along with them due to pouring money into firms with little prospect of returning it.
EU governments have been reluctant to back clean technologies — such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) that could sharply reduce pollution from coal — with cash, potentially killing their future, Czech power utility CEZ told the Reuters Central European Investment Summit this week.
Republican presidential candidate John McCain didn’t leave the best impression on Dr. Doom.
“I was a little bit dismayed when Senator McCain said flippantly that he does not know too much about economics but carries Alan Greenspan’s book under his arm. That does not encourage me,” Henry Kaufman, president of financial consulting firm Henry Kaufman & Company told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit.
Compiled by Thomson Reuters Proprietary Research Group
There have been five terms out of the last 16 where the last year of the term has a negative return on the DOW, and four of those terms have been during a Republican president’s term.
When we look at the previous 90 day returns before the new term, we see that the markets are generally positive (only four negative in the last 16 terms).
Elections are generally held in the first week of November. When we take the previous 60 day returns before the new term (from Nov. 20 – Jan. 20), we see that the DOW returns are even more positive, with only two terms out of 16 preceded by negative returns in the previous 60 days. This says that the lack of uncertainty after the elections usually give a boost to the market.
Only three four year terms have had negative returns. 1973-1981 (Oil crisis) and 2001-2005 (Dubya’s first term).
On average, the 90 days before the new term performs much better (3%) than the 90 days after the new term starts (1.1%).
The last three terms have started with negative returns in the first 90 days.
Since WW2, the Dems have had 7 terms and the Republicans have 8 (excluding the 2005-2009 Dubya term). The Dems have done slightly better (8.3% vs. 6.7%) in terms of average annualized returns over this period. However, these numbers are skewed in their favor because of the Clinton-Bubble era.