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Exclusive outtakes from industry leaders

November 3rd, 2009

Toyota will not freeze out Iceland, bets on Russia bounce

Posted by: Marcel Michelson

The world’s biggest carmaker, Toyota, will not follow the road of McDonald’s and abandon Iceland even though it is selling ‘very few’ cars there at the moment and its distributor has been seized by the banks as its owner went belly-up, Toyota Motor Europe President and CEO Tadashi Arashima told the Reuters Auto Summit in Paris on Tuesday.

“We have a big market share there, of 25 percent, and it is good for our after-sales,” Arashima said.

The banks are trying to sell the distributor but Toyota does not plan to take ownership like it does in its key European markets of Germany, France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom, and some Scandinavian countries.
 

Arashima said he believes the Russian market will recover sooner than many think, after the west European markets but well before the rest of East Europe — in 2011 or 2012.

In West Europe he does not see signs yet of a return of consumer confidence leading people to buy more expensive items such as cars and the showrooms remain quiet.

Europe traditionally had a low priority for Toyota, which mainly focused on the big U.S. market, and Arashima still has problems convincing  headquarters in Toyota City that Europeans like diesel engines which are far from popular in Japan and the States.

It now produces cars in Britain and France and makes some 60 to 70 percent of its sales locally.

But the Lexus luxury brand is not really taking off in Europe as it competes with German rivals that have diesel, and has rather big engines that Europeans have started to dislike.

In the U.S. however, big is still beautiful. “Even though Americans drive slowly they still love big engines,” Arashima said.

September 25th, 2009

Emerging Europe - what’s next?

Posted by: Sylvia Westall

 

Reuters Central European Investment Summit, September 28-30, 2009

 

The former Communist countries of central Europe have been the last to be hit by the global economic crisis, but th e hit they took was among the hardest. Only big neighbour Russia’s deep plunge into recession is rivaling the sharp fall from record economic growth that’s in store this year for the economies between the former Soviet Union and Western Europe.

 

Global risk aversion and deleveraging exposed the weaknesses that the countries had been able to gloss over during the boom years – which in retrospect appeared to have been, in some countries, a colossal binge bankrolled by cheap foreign credit extended by Western European banks that had to come to an end when funding dried up.

 

Even the specter of a region-wide meltdown lingered over the countries this winter as investors turned a blind eye on the differences between fundamentally sound countries like Poland, and Ukraine, Hungary or Romania, which could avert the threat of default, social unrest and instability only with aid from the IMF and the European Union.

 

But since the IMF and the EU moved in and made clear they would let no country fail, a pickup in risk appetite has driven up emerging European assets to the extent that some investors already worry about the next bubble inflating.

 

Worries remain. Many of the region’s export-geared countries’ recovery will depend on a return of demand for their exports in Western Europe. Unemployment is on the rise. Budget deficits balloon. And the mostly Western-owned banks still face an inevitable rise in bad debt that will continue well into next year and could thwart a fledgling economic pickup.

 

Key policymakers and corporate leaders will discuss these and related issues at the Reuters Central European Investment Summit on Sept. 28-30 in Vienna and Warsaw. We will be blogging about it here.

 

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk gestures as he speaks during a conference at the Warsaw Stock Exchange August 28, 2009. REUTERS/Kacper Pempel

September 15th, 2009

Of bees, bribes and bureaucrats

Posted by: Melissa Akin

Russian banking and aviation magnate Alexander Lebedev, owner of London’s Evening Standard, estimates that Russian bureaucrats have pocketed $500 billion in bribes in the past four years and corruption and red tape make Russia one of the worst places to invest on earth.

On the scale of bureaucratic outrages, Lebedev hit a personal low when the authorities asked him to produce a 100 page report on bee poo. They claimed to be concerned about the excrement produced in the hives at one of his farms.

“The conditions for entrepreneurship in Russia are simply horrible,” Lebedev told the Reuters Russia Investment Summit.

Lebedev has plenty of suggestions how to cure the disease. One of them would be to fire at least half the bureaucrats. “They are wealthy people. Let them go to Saint-Tropez,” he said.

One could wonder how billionaire Lebedev gets away with criticism of the Kremlin while his peers who had dared to challenge authorities had to flee to London or are serving prison terms in Siberia, like the oil magnate Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Lebedev, a former KGB agent like Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, says Putin is open to criticism and these are mainly mid-level bureaucrats who are causing trouble. “Putin is a hostage to the tradition of a corrupt country,” says Lebedev.

But he says Khodorkovsky must be freed and often repeats “God Forbid” when mentioning other fallen oligarchs.

Perhaps having a critic like Lebedev is valuable for Putin — if the prime minister does launch a fresh crackdown on corruption or major regulatory reforms, he will immediately have a cheering section. And without Lebedev, the Russian corporate landscape would be too dull.

September 15th, 2009

Move over, Nouriel Roubini

Posted by: Melissa Akin
Mikhail Alexeyev, a veteran of Soviet and Russian banking who now heads Russian operations for Italian bank UniCredit, said he saw the 2008 financial crisis coming when he was still a student at a Soviet state institute of finance.
 “I knew it would happen back in 1981, when I was studying political economics. In capitalism you get crises. Marx and Lenin teach us that.”
September 15th, 2009

Loose lips sink stocks

Posted by: Melissa Akin
    The president of Renaissance Capital — Russia’s largest home grown investment bank, a fiercely competitive institution which has now survived two crises — is not interested in publicly assessing the competitive landscape in Moscow’s financial sector.
    Russia’s stock market was all but shut down in a single day by rumours of distress among brokers, sparked by the selloff of stocks held on margin or as collateral on repurchase agreements.
    Operating often on whispers, brokers foreign and domestic slammed shut limits on each other, causing trade on the stock market to seize up.
    The first victim — brokerage KIT Finance — was announced by evening and became the first financial instituation to receive a state bailout.
     “The crisis has shown that rumours and gossiping about competitors is a very dangerous thing,” Renaissance Capital President Aganbegyan told the Reuters Russian Investment Summit almost a year later.
September 14th, 2009

Moscow: The least worst place for your money

Posted by: Melissa Akin

   Russian investment bank Renaissance Capital was a big backer of Moscow’s ambition to become a major emerging-markets financial centre, a bridge between European and Asian capital, a rival to Dubai.

    It not only trumpeted the idea, but was one of the first big local firms to take out offices in a sleek glass skyscraper by the Moscow River, surrounded by foundation pits and towers of naked steel girders that were to become Moscow’s Canary Wharf.

 
    Then the financial crisis hit in September 2008, knocking back the city’s ambitions.
 
    Renaissance Capital President Ruben Aganbegyan said, however, that other world financial centres were inadvertently helping Moscow’s case despite its setbacks.
 
    “A lot of people in the world are doing everything they can to help us,” Aganbegyan told the 2009 Reuters Russian Investment Summit. “Like the UK raising taxes.”
    Russia instituted a 13 percent flat income tax rate in 2001 to stop rampant tax evasion. Earlier in the day, Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin told the summit that Russia would try to avoid raising taxes to cover budget deficits for at least three years
September 11th, 2009

Note to OPEC: Siberia not Saudi

Posted by: Melissa Akin
   An episodic courtship between Russia, the world’s second largest oil exporter and its sometime rivals in the OPEC group of oil exporting nations, went cold at the beginning of this year when Russia failed to make good on hints that it might cut output in line with OPEC, dominated by Saudi Arabia and other desert states of the Middle East.
    Prices for oil, the economic lifeblood of Russia and OPEC countries alike, had fallen below $40, OPEC argued, and supply cuts had to be made to boost prices and finance investment into the oil industry.
    Alexander Medvedev, deputy chief executive of Russian energy giant Gazprom, told this year’s Reuters Russia Investment Summit that Russia had an excuse for avoiding the multimillion barrel cuts imposed by OPEC: the Siberian chill .
   It is a very simple explanation for this: We are not in a desert where it’s easily to regulate, we are in an extreme situation in Siberia where reserves could be damaged if you up and down your production levels.”
    If Russia shuts down Siberian wells, its industry members argue, they could seize up forever as they go cold.
    And Russia hardly left OPEC hanging, Medvedev argued: The financial crisis took its toll even on Russia’s cash rich oil companies: “Actually the supply was substantially lower in the first half of the year.” 
     Medvedev also said he was still struggling to understand where from the rival Nabucco pipeline will get its gas to rival Gazprom on European markets.
     “Even at the (Nabucco) signing ceremony I looked at the photos and tried to find any gas supplier and with all my attempts I could not find any. And it looked strange.”

February 25th, 2009

AUDIO - For Nordson — “Get ‘em right, or get ‘em out”

Posted by: Patrick Fitzgibbons

Throughout the current recession, many of the companies’ executives at this week’s Reuters Manufacturing and Transportation Summit have found an opportunity to review, pare back and possibly add on to their existing business mixes.

Such is the case for Edward Campbell, chief executive of Nordson Corp, which has a uniquely diversified set of businesses under its umbrella and is looking at what makes sense for them going forward.

Campbell makes the clear point that if something isn’t working for Nordson long term, the company has a responsibility to really consider whether that is a business they should be in.

Nordson makes a wide range of precision dispensing, testing and inspection, surface preparation and curing products. Its products can be found in everything from appliances to autos to bookbinding to furniture. It operates in three segments: adhesive dispensing systems, advanced technology systems and industrial coating and automotive systems.

Campbell said all of its businesses were subject to review, but did mention a couple that might be pared back in the attached audio clip.

Campbell was one of the featured speakers for the third day of the annual Manufacturing and Transportation Summit, which continues through Thursday in our Chicago offices. The Summit program is in its fifth year, and in 2009 will include top-level executives from  industries and sectors including everything from Infrastructure; to Mining; to Investing in India, China, Japan and Russia; to Food and Beverages.

October 13th, 2008

A philosophical look at the habits of the super-rich

Posted by: Laurence Fletcher

rtx8vgi.jpgThe credit crisis may be hitting the man on the street hard, but spending by the “other half” on the latest super yacht or Damien Hirst work of art looks set to carry on relatively unaffected.

Super-wealthy individuals in commodity-rich areas such as Russia and the Middle East are reaping the benefits of a five-year boom in oil and other commodity prices.

Even though oil and commodity prices are now coming off sharply, the boom is still feeding through into their spending power, provided they haven’t done anything too risky with their cash in the meantime.

And it’s happening just when everyone else is cutting back on non-essentials.

“It’s like philosophy,” explains ING’s Deputy CEO of Private Banking Bernard Coucke.

“Philosophy always comes after a century of economic prosperity, never before. Spending always comes after prosperity, never before.”

September 15th, 2008

Video - Car makers speed into Russia

Posted by: Nicole Volpe

U.S. and Asian automakers are rushing to lure Russian consumers to offset declining sales in the U.S., Europe and Asia.

U.S. and Asian automakers, facing declining sales in almost every market around the world, are speeding into Russia to try and gain market share as the growing middle-class expands and car sales appear set double in the next three years.

Ruben Ramirez reports from Moscow.