Reuters Breakingviews Columnist
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May 15, 2015
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Bond turmoil signals new era of return-free risk

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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

U.S. and German government bonds are gyrating as they rarely do. Yields are shooting higher for no apparent reason, and sometimes falling back within hours for equally unclear motives. Such turbulence in the biggest and most liquid bond markets is ushering in a new era. The traditional concept of risk-free returns has been turned on its head.

May 8, 2015
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Cameron has work cut out to sustain relief rally

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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

UK stocks and bonds, and the pound, have jumped after the surprise election success of Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives. That’s to be expected given earlier fears of a messy outcome. But Cameron has his work cut out to sustain the relief rally.

May 8, 2015
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Cameron has work cut out to sustain relief rally

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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

UK stocks and bonds, and the pound, have jumped after the surprise election success of Prime Minister David Cameron’s Conservatives. That’s to be expected given earlier fears of a messy outcome. But Cameron has his work cut out to sustain the relief rally.

Apr 29, 2015
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Ready-reckoning the markets post-UK election

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The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Next week’s British general election is unlikely to produce a clear winner. UK assets are likely to fall in the short term if negotiations to form a government drag on. They will slide further if an unstable minority government is formed. Persistent political uncertainty would risk depressing confidence, business investment and economic activity. This, in turn, could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates lower for longer. Sterling – which, at $1.5280, has already lost 11 percent since last July – would decline some more. Historically expensive gilts and fully valued stocks may also underperform.

Apr 29, 2015
via Breakingviews

Ready-reckoning the markets post-UK election

Photo

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Next week’s British general election is unlikely to produce a clear winner. UK assets are likely to fall in the short term if negotiations to form a government drag on. They will slide further if an unstable minority government is formed. Persistent political uncertainty would risk depressing confidence, business investment and economic activity. This, in turn, could lead the Bank of England to keep interest rates lower for longer. Sterling – which, at $1.5280, has already lost 11 percent since last July – would decline some more. Historically expensive gilts and fully valued stocks may also underperform.

Jan 28, 2015
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Currency market still scarred by Swiss trauma

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By Swaha Pattanaik

 The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

On the surface, currency trading has recovered from brutal swings triggered nearly two weeks ago when the Swiss National Bank suddenly abandoned its franc cap. But look a little deeper, and there are still signs of trauma. A surprise policy easing from Singapore on Jan. 28 will add to the market’s unease.

Jan 21, 2015
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Enjoy UK’s economic idyll while it lasts

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Britain’s economy seems to have reached the sunny uplands. How long the halcyon days last is another question.

Jan 15, 2015
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Swiss give scary lesson on central banks’ limits

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Central bankers have to live up to high expectations. Investors and politicians expect them to control inflation, prevent deflation, promote growth and keep the financial system healthy. The Swiss National Bank, an above-average institution, has failed at two simpler tasks, keeping its word and preventing destabilising currency moves. The lessons for the rest of the world are scary.

Jan 7, 2015
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Falling prices show ECB failed at its only mandate

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Euro zone prices are falling annually, for the first time since 2009. Investors’ faith in the European Central Bank’s ability to deliver on its “price stability” mandate is falling even faster – and rightly so.

Jan 6, 2015
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Petrodollar drought is new risk for markets

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

Low oil prices hurt energy producers. They may hurt financial markets too.

For years, energy windfalls were large enough to give major oil producing nations surplus cash. Exporters accumulated foreign exchange reserves and put money into funds which aimed at stabilising economies, paying pensions or just earning a return on investments. The total assets under management of these “petrodollar” investors increased by $2.5 trillion between 2009 and 2014, according to Citi analysts’ calculations.

    • About Swaha

      "Swaha is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. She has been covering financial markets and policymaking for 22 years, reporting on key economic and monetary milestones and breaking market-moving news. She was responsible for regional FX, bonds and stock market teams as Reuters EMEA Markets editor between 2008 and 2013. She was Senior Economics Correspondent in France between 2005 and 2008, European Economics and Monetary Affairs Correspondent in Brussels between 2001 and 2005 and headed up the Reuters FX reporting desk in London between 1998 and 2001. Swaha previously worked at Bloomberg, Euromoney and IDEA."
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