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Mar 11, 2014
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Scandal will reshape FX trading dynamics

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Around the world, investigators are trying to find out if the largely unregulated foreign exchange market was manipulated. Even before the probes are completed, the pace of change will pick up in the $5 trillion-a-day market, in both what moves currencies and the way business is done.

Mar 11, 2014
via Breakingviews

Scandal will reshape FX trading dynamics

Photo

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Around the world, investigators are trying to find out if the largely unregulated foreign exchange market was manipulated. Even before the probes are completed, the pace of change will pick up in the $5 trillion-a-day market, in both what moves currencies and the way business is done.

Feb 27, 2014
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Investors take note: low inflation isn’t deflation

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

The theory says that bonds benefit and stocks suffer when there’s deflation. In the real world, disinflation has yet to turn into persistent price declines. Sluggish price rises are no bar to equities doing quite well, just so long as there is growth. It’s too early to write off stocks.

Feb 27, 2014
via Breakingviews

Investors take note: low inflation isn’t deflation

Photo

By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

The theory says that bonds benefit and stocks suffer when there’s deflation. In the real world, disinflation has yet to turn into persistent price declines. Sluggish price rises are no bar to equities doing quite well, just so long as there is growth. It’s too early to write off stocks.

Jan 10, 2014
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UK election clouds have gilt-edged lining

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By Swaha Pattanaik

(The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

British politicians are drawing up battle lines more than a year before general elections. On current form, the left-leaning opposition could oust the governing coalition. However, any knee-jerk investor dismay may be tempered given the Labour Party is more likely to cement the UK’s place in the European Union than the ruling Conservatives.

Dec 9, 2013
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FX increasingly slave to other markets’ moves

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Currencies have been especially tough to call in the past year. New analysis suggests that when global interest rates are uniformly low, moves in the mammoth foreign exchange market seem to be a by-product of what is happening in stocks or bonds. That makes predictions almost impossible.

Nov 25, 2013
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Sub-zero ECB rates could be made to work

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

The European Central Bank has discussed charging lenders for the privilege of putting money on deposit. It would be a radical move, enacted through negative interest rates, aiming to encourage banks to lend to the real economy. But such a policy should be embraced with care.

Nov 20, 2013
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Equity optimists may fast create a crowded trade

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

Many large institutional asset managers expect developed stocks to march higher next year. They predict that companies will ramp up capital expenditure and fiscal policy will become less restrictive. That may well happen. The risk is that too much money is chasing the same idea. Crowded trades are rarely safe bets.

Nov 18, 2013
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Markets may underrate ECB’s propensity to act

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.

It is as if the European Central Bank’s unexpected rate cut had never happened. Within a fortnight, markets seem not to be counting on any further easing of monetary policy in the foreseeable future. Perhaps investors don’t believe the key people at the ECB can deliver on commitments to do more if necessary. If so, they’re missing something. The majority is starting to rule at the ECB.

Nov 13, 2013
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BoE can escape its self-made forward guidance trap

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By Swaha Pattanaik

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

The Bank of England made a rod for its own back in August when it first linked the outlook for monetary policy with the fortunes of the labour market. It now admits it was too pessimistic about how quickly unemployment would fall. However, the central bank seems no keener to raise interest rates than it was then. Governor Mark Carney is trying to nuance the message. But he might do better just to simplify it.

    • About Swaha

      "Swaha is a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews. She has been covering financial markets and policymaking for 22 years, reporting on key economic and monetary milestones and breaking market-moving news. She was responsible for regional FX, bonds and stock market teams as Reuters EMEA Markets editor between 2008 and 2013. She was Senior Economics Correspondent in France between 2005 and 2008, European Economics and Monetary Affairs Correspondent in Brussels between 2001 and 2005 and headed up the Reuters FX reporting desk in London between 1998 and 2001. Swaha previously worked at Bloomberg, Euromoney and IDEA."
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