Tales from the Trail

Prediction markets place bets on Palin’s permanence

September 2, 2008

The online prediction market Intrade sees a 12 percent chance that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4.

Intrade accepts trades on the probability of events such as whether there will be a recession, whether the U.S. Congress will lift the ban on offshore drilling or whether the United States or Israel will launch a military strike on Iran. It opened the Palin betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor whom Sen. John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her 17-year-old daughter was pregnant.

The market opened at 3 percent that she would have to withdraw as McCain’s running mate and climbed as high as 18 percent before settling down to 12 percent on 632 trades as of noon EDT. The markets are priced from zero to 100, with zero meaning investors see no chance an event will happen and 100 meaning it already has happened.

Separately on Hubdub.com , which offers virtual cash in exchange for correct predictions, various wagers were made , from the chance of Palin stepping down as the VP nominee (currently a 19 percent chance) to whether her biography video would mention her NRA membership (80 percent).

What do you think the chances are that Palin will withdraw? Put your prediction — from 0 percent to 100 percent — in comments. Read the full Reuters story.

(Reporting by Daniel Trotta)

Click here for more Reuters 2008 campaign coverage

Comments
72 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

She needs to WITHDRAW. NOW.

Although she may be qualified, there are simply TOO MANY DISTRACTIONS.

She must WITHDRAW and be REPLACED BY ROMNEY ASAP!!

Posted by Giaccomo | Report as abusive
 

30% chance of Palin withdrawing, and she’ll do it AFTER the convention, carrying on about how she has to care for her family and the new baby.

Then McCain can choose Ridge as his running mate, as he wanted to in the first place, but the ultra-conservatives threatened a convention floor fight to defeat anyone pro-choice. So he has to slip in his actual desired candidate after the convention.

Posted by Mundame | Report as abusive
 

I’m also an ex-Republican, now independent since 2006 and I would have voted for Hillary ——- but this choice of Palin is AWFUL. A wild-eyed young ultra-conservative with no experience whatsoever from a state so far away from the rest of the country that it’s closer to the Yukon and Siberia? She’d get us into a nuclear war with our cities being bombed as soon as McCain dies, which will probably be in his first term.

I can’t imagine why McCain supposed any Hillary voter would vote for this beauty pageant babe — it’s not even respectable.

Posted by Mundame | Report as abusive
 

Palin is a real person with real life issues. Should she be the assistant leader of the most powerful nation in the world – absolutely not. It sounds like those who ‘support’ her are doing so because of her real life issues. The fact that her teenage daughter is pregnant should not be a voting issue. Had the pregnancy issue come up with a democratic candidate, it would have been the worst sin in the world, but in the case of Republican Gov. Palin, the religious right deem it acceptable because the family is ‘doing the right thing’. What a bunch of bull. We just haven’t heard what Palin stands for in terms of health, education and economy at large (we have some idea of Alaska’s economic situation – ie. the most federal spending per head of any American state). Tonight might well be the turning point, but this lady is certainly not ready for the role just yet. As I see it, the Americans are giving the world a choice between a leadership that is focused on national security, headed by an ex-POW, – not great for world relations. Or the complete the opposite – a promise to open up and become the leaders they should be. Unfortunately, the people may not be ready for the latter.

Posted by pascale | Report as abusive
 

Bristol will have a convenient miscarriage, at which time Palin will recuse herself citing family matters. Boyfriend will not marry Bristol because current girlfriend is also pregnant. Family values becomes Republicans mantra. Or I could be wrong!!

Posted by Fedayeen | Report as abusive
 

Governor Palin should definitely withdraw from the race as she is a great distraction from the Republican party and detractor in this campaign race.

 

Picking Biden as a VP was a much larger mistake –

When the next poll shows McCain with a slight lead – Biden will be the one dropping out so he can spend more time with his family – and good old Hillary will be tapped to step in and save any chance Obama has of winning.

Obama has already thrown his pastor and grandmother under the bus – he has no loyalty –

It is pretty obvious he hates Biden (he is annoying) – Biden actually endorsed McCain for VP in the last election. What a tool –

Posted by Bill | Report as abusive
 

I don’t think she should step down. There are a few things I disagree with… the mom issue is not one of them. There is another parent available to care for the children (most of whom are self-sufficient now -17 and up)require less attention than the 6 year old and the infant.

Posted by Paul | Report as abusive
 

Withdraw? Come now, that is not Governor Palin’s style at all. She is in this for the long haul, no matter what the liberals, or the liberal press would like to believe, or fantasize. It’s very apparent she is a fighter, who represents core values, and is a true grassroots fighter. Notice I did not say she was a politician. Her magnetism comes from the fact that she represents much of what we have longed for in a leader, and the discovery many have made is simply this- she, not Hillary Clinton, is the American woman, and leader, we desire. Not someone with loads of political baggage, and a corrupt political machine propping her up. But, indeed, someone who represents a chance at a fresh start.
Yes, like all, she has a few blemishes. I personally see her as a complete breath of fresh air, and the McCain-Palin ticket is not only unique, but potentially dynamic for America, for years to come.

Posted by PirateVoice | Report as abusive
 

This choice reveals the capacity of an honorable, but aging and befuddled, McCain to make wise choices in a time of significant multiple challenges to our nation. Unfortunately, it is increasingly evident Senator McCain is no longer up to the task.

Posted by Ed Ruttledge | Report as abusive
 

And one more comment. There are many on this site that simply write like they think- mindlessly. If you truly want to make a difference, and be taken seriously, then use some intelligent thought when making comments or observations. Some of these comments seem to come straight from the mother of all intellectual voids.

Posted by PirateVoice | Report as abusive
 

0% chance of her withdrawl and a “100% chance that she would be a terrible vice president”. (Posted by Sasquatch)

Posted by Robert Arlt | Report as abusive
 

I fear that John McCain is using this woman just to try a last straw effort at getting himself a jolt upwards in the polls. Once elected President of the United States McCain must figure that Palin will be a puppet that he can manipulate for his own purposes as she will be so eternally grateful for his gesture of picking her out of nowhere to be his Vice President. I cannot see her as having any viable political stature in the job.

Posted by Evelyn H | Report as abusive
 

I don’t think she will withdraw as that would sink McCain. But I agree there is a 100% chance she will be a terrible vp. I love AD’s comment above, “I have not heard her say one word on tv, and she’s got my vote.” That, in a nutshell is the problem with our country. How can people vote for someone they know nothing about. Bush had Palin’s qualifications: evangelical, pro-life, anti-gay, no knowledge of foreign policy. Look how well that turned out. Maybe we should decide who should lead our country based upon some other more sensible criteria.

Posted by Abe | Report as abusive
 

100%, she needs to go. What a dufus. All he needed to do was pick Liebermann or Romney.

Posted by Loyal Republican | Report as abusive
 

Not a good choice— seems like-ooh! the democrats ran a woman so we should too! –very denigrating to females in general. Looks like a trophy Veep.

Posted by G | Report as abusive
 

Dear Evelyn, Abe and Private, I will tell you I am pro-choice and firmly disagree with Gov. Palin on that issue. I do not believe the government should place itself in the position to make personal/moral based decisions for anyone. People cannot grow if others are thinking for you. However, there is much more here. Gov Palin also believes in teaching Creationism in schools. I do agree with that and I am not evangelical. You cannot know if the theory of evolution is correct unless you can compare it against something other than itself. Is life from primordial mud or on the backs of falling crystals is not any more sane than the biblical recollection?

The point is, checks and balance. I have no fear that Democrats can’t save pro-choice. Gov Palin’s tenacity in these areas I hope will create consessions. Encouraging opinion and study to something greater than self is a benefit. She may not have 30 years experience in government, but neither do most people who vote and still speak like they know more. They probably know more football than NFL coaches too. She will be the perspective that many people feel, and will be in the same room to express those concerns to policy makers.

Posted by Paul | Report as abusive
 

This is a remarkably silly article. But it is apropos of American politics and elections. The fact is, most Americans are simply too superficial to effectively cast their votes. Instead, they are seduced by sound bites — “time for a change” and such drivel — instead of demanding an indepth discussion of the important issues. They often vote for a candiate based upon the candidate’s status (over which the candidate has no control), such as whether the candidate is a man or a woman, whether he is Caucasion or African American. They vote for candidates who are attractive to them. And, instead of informing themselves on issues, they read silly articles like this one.

Palin will probably not step aside, and here’s why: She is attractive and will make good sound bites. If she fails, it is because she informs the American public too much about her views, and the public becomes bored.

Americans have the politicians they deserve. Until American voters demand more than mud-slinging, status, and sound bites, they are swinging at branches rather than chopping at roots.

Will America someday be proof that a republic is not a viable form of government. I suspect it will. And Americans will have their own stupidity, laziness and complacency to blame.

Posted by RLM | Report as abusive
 

doubtful I can add anything to this conversation, but:

Palin’s ‘investigtion’ in Alaska is hardly worth mentioning. The details of the situation are well documented, she is cooperating fully, and only the media spin-machine can make it a big deal by obfuscation and outright lies.

Her daughter’s situation is irrelevant to, well, anything, except as evidence of her pro-life stance influencing her children.

What else is there to say negatively about her that is not doubly true for Obama?

0% chance of withdrawl – sheesh, like it even has to be mentioned?

Posted by Da6d | Report as abusive
 

minus zero – she epitomises the sentimentality in which so many americans love to indulge…

Posted by William Stoneking | Report as abusive
 

QUESTION:
IS PALIN QUALIFIED COMPARED TO OBAMA ?

ANSWER:
http://townhall.com/blog/g/cba8713c-ef73 -4ebc-aa5e-bc53e6596e2a&comments=true

Posted by Howard | Report as abusive
 

Palin did extort the oil companies, and then give a portion of that money to every Alaskan citizen in the form of a check. This was redistribution of wealth of a certain kind, more like a ticket to buy new consumer goods.

It would have been better to use the proceeds to fund new industry or education for the state.

 

Post Your Comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/