Prediction markets place bets on Palin’s permanence
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The online prediction market Intrade sees a 12 percent chance that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee before the U.S. presidential election on November 4.
Intrade accepts trades on the probability of events such as whether there will be a recession, whether the U.S. Congress will lift the ban on offshore drilling or whether the United States or Israel will launch a military strike on Iran. It opened the Palin betting market on Tuesday morning after a series of revelations about the Alaska governor whom Sen. John McCain chose as his running mate, including that her 17-year-old daughter was pregnant.
The market opened at 3 percent that she would have to withdraw as McCain’s running mate and climbed as high as 18 percent before settling down to 12 percent on 632 trades as of noon EDT. The markets are priced from zero to 100, with zero meaning investors see no chance an event will happen and 100 meaning it already has happened.
Separately on Hubdub.com , which offers virtual cash in exchange for correct predictions, various wagers were made , from the chance of Palin stepping down as the VP nominee (currently a 19 percent chance) to whether her biography video would mention her NRA membership (80 percent).
What do you think the chances are that Palin will withdraw? Put your prediction — from 0 percent to 100 percent — in comments. Read the full Reuters story.
(Reporting by Daniel Trotta)
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What was John McCain thinking? Did he know anything about Sarah Palin before he chose her to be his VP?
It sure doesn’t seem like it…
I predict a 60% chance she will withdraw. It will depend on what else comes out involving her or if more attention is brought to her family.
Only 12% – If I was McCain, I would get rid of her way before the October Surprise happens!
> .66% before November 2008 Palin will withdraw. McCain’s other candidates are better poised for the VP position. Palin was vetted as a mere publicity stunt.
100
One could only hope.
I think there is a 100% chance that she would be a terrible vice president.
No looking good for McCain, with the stack of scandals piling up, he will be forced to dump Palin. But doing so would be suicide for his election chances. Although I think she may resign related to family.
0 percent chance of her withdrawl……get a clue
I think it is shameful to suggest she should withdraw. Let the first politician who hasn’t sinned cast the first stone! We didn’t impeach Clinton for having an affair in the oval office (quite literally) and then repeatedly lying about it, then why on earth should she step down? Others have admitted to snorting cocaine, affairs, and much more. Yet because she is a woman, there are higher standards? Give me a break.
I have not heard her say one word on tv, and she’s got my vote.
50%
Funny, I just emailed McCain’s website suggesting she step down. There are so many reasons on so many levels as to why Palin is the worst choice since Dan Quayle. It says more about McCain’s Judgement than whether Palin could actually perform well in the job despite her obvious weaknesses.
Sad desperate tactic, totally out of touch with mainstream America as well as the women of America, IMO.
Carl Johnson
21
Of course, intrade didn’t even have Palin on the radar screen the day before she was announced, and had Obama at 90% mere hours before he lost the New Hampshire primary.
It’s called “gambling” for a reason.
ZERO.
You must be kidding? Your coverage is laughable. I get my news elsewhere.
She will be gone before September 30th. The reason will be family health issues including a crisis with her newest child and a pregnancy complication for her daughter. She will be replaced immediately by Kay Bailey Hutchinson.
50% chance she will be replaced
She will stay and win.
35% chance her name will be withdrawn in the next month.
I see a 50% chance she will withdraw as VP.
the selection supports my decision not to vote for Sen. McCain, as much as I admire him. Alone, he would have been a safer, though not ideal bet for the Presidency. The selection itself seems a bit naive. In any event, I would put the chances of her removal at only 5%, but the chances of her withdrawing voluntarely , as a patriotic American should, at 10%.
rubbish, who cares what the online prediction market has to say about this.
60 %
I’d say 50% probability that Sarah Palin will be withdrawn as the Republican vice presidential nominee.
NO WAY, SHE IS THE SPIRIT THAT MCCAIN NEEDED AND THE PARTY NEEDED. She is just having the same problems that we all have, she just isn’t hiding it!
I wish there was someone who would bet real money that she will be withdrawn . I would place a large bet against that!
If this were a Democratic babe, I wonder if this would be an issue! Shame on all of you! Those among you that have no sin cast the fist stone! Oh, I forgot, you have already stoned Gov. Palin and her entire family!
My read is that this should be less of a discussion about Palin as a viable candidate who is a heartbeat away from the presidency and more about McCain’s apparent lack of judgement.
From what I can see, the choice he made was a “hail mary” play, hoping to stir up buzz. In a way, it was horribly cynical and an insult to Palin. It had less to do with her credentials, which are lightweight, and more to do with having a running mate that the opposition cannot discuss or attack without fear of enraging the “soccer moms” and other female conservative demographics.
Overall, shrewd strategic move Mr. McCain, unfortunately it just puts two people in the White House who are unqualified to represent or lead the US.
You lost my vote sir.
50 percent
No, put your prediction on Intrade, that’s the whole point. If you’re not confident enough to risk money on it why should I listen to you?
60 percent
“will be withdrawn”? Not a chance in heck.
Will withdraw? That is, she takes the “high road” and says “I am not willing to let the damn liberals go after my daughter anymore,” “I need to protect my family,” blah-de-blah-de-blah? Some possibility, but small. Just too hard for McCain to fill her position at this point. So McCain is stuck with his mistake and he just has to do his best to ride it out.
Chances are greater than 80% she will withdraw. We will not know if it will be voluntarily or mandatory. I see no Republican heavyweights endorsing her, just people like Giuliani, Thompson, Molinari, and campaign surrogates, as well as the right wing base.
They have 2-3 weeks, then must hurry to campaign with a credible candidate for 4 weeks.
On the other hand, all this self imposed focus on these pregnancies of her’s and her daughter, could be a strategy to keep focus off of her position on issues that have been published in Alaskan newspapers, none of which have anything to do with economy, health care, housing, unemployment, Social Security, Iraq war, Iran, Israel, Russia, Europe, Africa, India, etc.
I think this is the dirtiest thing the lousey dem.’s have done yet. They are so afraid of her that they are
going to do anything to try to find something bad.
I love her and think she is one of the smartest women
I have ever seen.
They know she is smarter than the two dem’s.
I think the chance of Palin with drawing from the race is 0%. She has character and the strength of her convictions to stand in the face of the media attacks.
I put the probability at 37% given that this selection was really the result of McCain’s fit when told he couldn’t have Lieberman. I think she’ll do one of those, “I’m doing this for the good of the party routines.” The probability increases or decreases as the poll numbers rise or fall. Historically, the chance is about 0% given the only near-term dumping of the VP I can remember was Senator Thomas Eagleton by McGovern in 1972. However, the defeat of Bush by Clinton in 1992 which was directly related to the decision to retain Quayle causes the probability to rise.
Beltway Greg
Palin will be the next Vice President of the United States of America.
This will be a much bigger and better change than the candidate that professes to be leading the party for change.
Don’t vote for BOB, B(arack) O(bama) B(iden).
….and Hilary didn’t get an invite because Michelle Obama wouldn’t have another woman in the house at the same time as she intends to be there.
….and no I don’t expect any real Hilary voters to switch to Palin.
I believe Sarah Palin would would be beneficial to John McCains ticket.She seems to be down to earth and not afraid to speak up even if it concerns her own party.Bottom line she seems to be a regular person not a professional politician which I respect.
This just proves how low-down and coniving the liberal
dem. party is.
They know she’s smart and people love her so they are
trying to vocus attention on something else.
No human is perfect. This is not even near what Obama
has done himself.
She will win.
carolyn
Why don’t you guys get a job that is meaningful? This is just a poor excuse for the the left wing bias media to inject doubt about her…get a life! 12%? What is it for Biden…20%? This information is so totally useless!
Why should she be withdrawn? Is anything she has done or been through any worse than some of the other people in the running for any office.
If I had to bet I’d have to say 0% (unless of course something really meaningful comes up that we don’t know about already) because I don’t like losing money.
For one thing there is no way McCain would want to admit to a mistake .. and besides, as it stands now he hasn’t made one.
I don’t think picking a V.P. who has a ‘pregnant daughter’ qualifies as a mistake.
The liberal media are out in full force now (mostly out of fear that Palin will actually secure votes) mudslinging and I expect it will work for a week or two.
I think though, if she weathers the storm, as I expect she will, there will be an enormous backlash.
She will be the first female V.P. of the U.S.
And the sad part is, that many of those females who complain about the glass-ceiling, will end up disappointed!
I guess it never was about ‘female rights, but rather, ‘liberal female rights’.
Very silly article.
80%. Once the convention is over and McCain doesn’t face a evangelical floor fight, she will remove herself from the campaign (for some bogus reason) and McCain will pick Lieberman or Ridge.
Dream on libbies, it wont happen. I think she scares you libs.
As a once Republican woman (indy as of 2004) I am OUTRAGED by this selection! There are SO many qualified people & (if he had to get granular)so many “conservative” women of ethics & genuine experience… however, this was the BEST one he found? I am not a fan of Karl Rove and HE didn’t even support Ms. Palin. Doesn’t this say something? I find this to be a very sad month for our country.
the chickens come home to roost
She has zero chance of withdrawing, not because she is qualified to be vp, but because the republican ticket will be in shambles if she is not on it. The conservative base has been excited by her and to remove her would be a tease that would all but hand the election to Obama.
As an independent; I have nothing against her, but it strikes me humorous that a corporation requires the basics: A related degree plus a number of years on the job training, and for an executive position the additional requirement of a solid track record of achievements. LOL – to be President or a VP of the USA, the biggest economy in the world, one is plugged by the color of your hair, sex, or other individual preferences. Do you honestly believe both McCain and Palin would be chosen to run as President of The Harvard Law Review ? or even Burger King ?
No wonder our country is in such as mess, & going downhill with no stop in sight.
Chances Palin will be replaced are ZERO, because in our ever decreasing std of living, we aren’t yet hurting enough – to wake up.