Obama has 19-point lead with early voters — Pew

October 28, 2008

DALLAS – According to a new poll by the Pew Research Center, Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a 19-point lead over Republican rival John McCain among U.S. voters who have already cast their ballots.

The Pew poll, released on Tuesday, gels with other reports of a Democratic surge to the polls in states that allow early voting.

Obama holds a 53 percent to 34 percent lead among the sizable minority of voters (15 percent) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16 percent of voters), 56 percent support Obama, while 37 percent support McCain,” Pew said.

The election will be held a week from today and most national polls give Obama a commanding lead, although not by the margins suggested by Pew’s survey of early voters. This could well be a sign of energized and enthusiastic Democrats heading to the early polls.

Obama’s lead over McCain has narrowed from 12 points just five days ago to four points, according to the latest Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll. You can see our report on this  here

The latest Pew poll gave Obama an overall lead of 52 percent to 36 percent among the 1,325 registered voters surveyed from Oct 23- 26th.

Click here for more Reuters 2008 campaign coverage.

Photo credit: Reuters/Jason Reed (Obama speaks at rally)


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Pew has a much better track record of accuracy than Zogby. Reuters picked the wrong polling firm with which to align.

Posted by douglasdao | Report as abusive

I just voted. I’m not sure if I am considered “early”. Anyway, I voted for Obama! Maybe we can change that number from 19 to 20.

Posted by Eloise | Report as abusive

I voted early for the first time this year. Usually, there’s at least one race or issue which I don’t feel informed enough about, until I have to make a deadline choice. It was great. I was one yelling ‘Yes, I have,’ when Obama asked.

Posted by Sharon | Report as abusive

non-partisan voter guide

http://www.grassfire.org/scorebook/conte nts.asp?CID=97&RID=17995362

Posted by Deah =) | Report as abusive

[…] about this one? Tales from the Trail Blog Archive Obama has 19-point lead with early voters — Pew | Blogs | Re… __________________ "But I have to tell you, I have to tell you, [Senator Obama] is a decent […]

Posted by Polls – 10/29/08 – US Message Board | Report as abusive


I just voted for Obama too. Make that 19 + 2 = 21

Posted by Sami | Report as abusive

It’s a real shame that Liberal Democrats do not have a life except to blog and comment on every possibly positive Republican article that appears in the news. Democrats, get a life, go fishing, get a hobby, get off your computer for a while.

Posted by Jim Edwards | Report as abusive

I was thinking when it said Obama had an early lead… similair to the next word but a different spelling… P.U.! as in it is disgusting that the liberals think “early voting” means anything aside from trying to sway people to vote away from their desire and more toward lemmings.

Obamabots need to just shut up.

Posted by Ben | Report as abusive

Jim Edwards,

We do have a life and that’s why we can’t let you guys steal another election. Maybe if more of us had blogged in 2000 and 2004 we wouldn’t have been stuck with George The Imbecile. Thanks for the offer to get a life, but we already have a collective life and we give a damn about the quality of it. We feel that McCain would diminish our collective quality of life, so we’re here to defend it. What could be more important than trying to stop you and McCain from doing more damage?

Posted by DaveSEMass | Report as abusive

Wow that is large. Surely that will shrink somewhat or is this a whitewash.

Posted by KT | Report as abusive

Dear fellow Americans,
Anyone who can, should vote early. If everyone waits until Nov. 4th, the polling stations will be overrun, with long waits to vote.

Also, the Republican Party machine has purged hundreds of thousands of citizens from the voting rolls, but not informed them of this.

If a citizen has become a victim of the Republican voter purge, which is extensive in key swing states like OH and FL, going to vote early would give that citizen the chance to discover this in time, and to challenge his or her being taken off the list of eligible voters.

This is important, because otherwise, you can at best cast a “provisional ballot” on election day, with no assurance it will be counted.

This is a very important election – the future of our country hangs in the balance.

Everyone who wants a new direction for America must vote for it!

No one can do that for you!

This is what makes us a democracy, and not a dictatorship or a banana republic, so please use that right!

Dear fellow Americans, please vote as soon as you possibly can!

(Yes, I have, and you betcha, I voted for Barack Obama for President of the United States of America, and Joe Biden for Vice President of the USA! Our country and our people need this change badly!)

Posted by aix1825 | Report as abusive

In regards to aix1825: It seems rather hypocritical of a Democrat to complain about the Republicans trying to undo the work that Acorn did in illegally registering voters under names of the dead as well as fictional characters such as Mickey Mouse, especially considering Senator Obama’s past affiliation with the organization.
And to DaveSEMass: When you say that you want to protect your quality of life, does that include protecting Senator Obama when he spends $1 Million on each thirty minute time slot while his supporters complain about the RNC spending $150,000 on clothes for the Palin Family, a third of which were taken back shortly after the purchase, and the rest of which will either be auctioned off for charity or donated?

Posted by Jordan | Report as abusive

aix1825 ,

I wonder why the Republicans are purging the voters. Aren’t they afraid that some of them would have voted for them? Or all the voters are pro-Obama?

Posted by John | Report as abusive

Jordan – I, for one, would rather have political donations be spent on a 30 minute TV time slot where a candidate can express his ideas for our future than on a candidate’s wardrobe. I guess Palin had to look good because what was coming out of her mouth surely wasn’t impressive.

Posted by Kim | Report as abusive

Are the Republicans afraid that Mickey Mouse will actually show up to vote?

Posted by Robert | Report as abusive

If Mickey Mouse voted, he would surely vote for Obama…

Posted by Liz | Report as abusive

FYI — naysayers….Pew Poll …. part of the Pew Charitable Trust…started by and primarily controlled still by Pew family. VERY, extreeeeeemley conservative. Children of the Sun Oil Company founder. “Joseph Pew and his heirs were politically conservative.

The J. Howard Pew Freedom Trust had as its mission to “acquaint the American people with ‘the evils of bureaucracy’ and ‘the values of a free market’ and ‘to inform our people of the struggle, persecution, hardship, sacrifice and death by which freedom of the individual was won.\'” Joseph N. Pew, Jr. called Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal, “a gigantic scheme to raze U.S businesses to a dead level and debase the citizenry into a mass of ballot-casting serfs.”[2]

Early beneficiaries included a cancer research institute, a museum, higher education, the American Red Cross, and historically black colleges. For many years, the Trusts tended to fund charities and conservative causes located in Philadelphia.

In 2004, the Pew Trusts changed from a foundation into a nonprofit. It can now raise funds freely and devote up to 5% of its budget to lobbying the public sector.”

Good to see they have given Obama such a wide margin. Any chance it is to attempt to make his supporters complacent? I tend to keep an eye on www.electoral-vote.com they use a 7 day average of non-partisan polls. Their algorithm is explained on their site. Their numbers are more conservative but at least it does not allow for voters to assume they can sit back and let someone else do the voting.

GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by patrioticexsoldier | Report as abusive

I hope the momentum keeps up! This is the first election that has motivated me and my fiance to vote, and we both early voted for Obama. I know the same is true for a number of our friends!

Posted by Jason Bramble | Report as abusive