Polls show race tightening in McCain’s home state of Arizona

October 29, 2008

PHOENIX – Polls in recent days suggest that John McCain’s lead over Democratic rival Barack Obama may be slipping in the Republican’s home state of Arizona, with one released  late on Tuesday indicating that the race is now too close to call.

With less than a week to go until the Nov. 4 election, the poll by Arizona State University showed McCain leading Obama 46 points to 44, a slender advantage that was within the three-point margin of error.

“John McCain’s support in Arizona has slipped to the point where, at least in our poll, it’s a statistical dead heat,” said Tara Blanc, the assistant director of the survey carried out by ASU’s Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication and Channel 8 /KAET.

“At this point it’s anybody’s race. It will frankly come down to who goes to the polls on election day,” Blanc told Reuters by telephone.

Presidential candidates can usually count on winning in their home states. A notable exception was Democrat Al Gore, who lost Tennessee when he was running against then Texas Gov. George W. Bush in 2000.

Several polls indicate that McCain’s lead over Obama has tightened in Arizona in the past month, which has been marked by fallout from the global economic crisis.

A similar poll by ASU in late September gave McCain a 7 point lead. A Rasmussen poll out this week showed McCain’s lead in the desert state had slipped to 5 points, down from 21 points late last month.

The Democratic party in Arizona – a state that McCain has represented in the U.S. Senate since 1986 – not surprisingly seized on the results of the latest survey.

“According to the Cronkite poll …. John McCain is in danger of losing Arizona,” Don Bivens, the chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party told a conference call with reporters, adding that it showed that “Senator Obama is closing the gap.”

The McCain campaign, meanwhile, were dismissive. Politico.com reported McCain spokesman Jeff Sadosky saying: “John McCain has never lost an election in Arizona, and this one will be no different, regardless of Obama’s attempt to buy the election with millions of dollars in advertising.”

Click here for more Reuters 2008 campaign coverage

- Photo credit: Reuters/Brian Snyder (McCain in the battleground state of Florida)

10 comments

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There is a chance for Obama to win all 50 States

Posted by kien | Report as abusive

There is a chance for Obama to win all 50 States

- Posted by kien

Not very likely, but losing so many “republican” states will be primairly Palin’s fault.

Posted by Republican VN Era Veteran | Report as abusive

There is no chance of Obama taking all 50 states. McCain will take Alaska. He will take Alabama. He will likely take North and South Carolina.

Posted by Mitch | Report as abusive

If you told me in July my Senator would lose our home state of Arizona, I would have thought you mad.
Now, it would not shock me. If Senator Obama makes inroads in Maricopa County, that is where two thirds of Arizona’s population lives.
Many conservatives here are economic conservatives. The economic crash changed the game in the late innings.

I do not think it is all 50 states but if he can clear 300 electoral, win the popular vote and beat McCain in Arizona that would be decisive.

Posted by Kylie | Report as abusive

That Sen. McCain’s campaign is losing ground in Arizona seems to confirm that you can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. More and more…people are rejecting Sen. McCain’s outrageous hyperbole.

Posted by Leslie J | Report as abusive

Nice cartoon about Arizona getting close in the polls and the very different treatment of Pennsylvania (“battleground state!” even though Obama now about 11% ahead) and Arizona (“safe for McCain” even though McCain now only about 6% ahead) at the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog…

You will see John McCain lose Arizona by 4 points.

Posted by Tech X4 | Report as abusive

I am more worried about Pennslyvania. I am from there, and it is infested with racist idiots like the Palin rallies.

having just moved from Arizona, I can understand why McCain’s losing ground there. People are getting tired of his hopping back and forth from position to position depending on why political season. Chances are, McCain won’t lose AZ, but the fact that it’s getting close there shows that Arizonans are finally getting tired of McCain and that his political career may be waning.

Posted by Dane | Report as abusive