In 2012 who wins? poll may surprise

July 20, 2009

It may be getting time for the White House to polish up on that well-worn political line that public opinion polls don’t matter.

President Barack Obama got hit with a one-two polling punch today.

It’s never too early to talk about the presidential election that’s coming in 2012, they were talking about it during the last one even before the ballots were cast.

Rasmussen Reports in a national survey asked 1,000 likely voters who they would pick for president if the election was held now: Democrat Obama or Republican Mitt Romney.

The answer: EVEN at 45 percent each.


But wait, it gets a bit more complicated.

In choosing between Obama and Republican Sarah Palin the poll came in at 42 percent for Palin compared with 48 percent for Obama.

It seems that her resignation as governer and the anonymous badmouthing about her time on the campaign trail as a vice presidential candidate has rolled off like water off a duck.

But in a three-way race, Obama wins, Palin loses, and Romney gets stuck in the middle.

The poll comes as a Washington Post-ABC News poll shows public approval of Obama’s handling of healthcare reform falling below 50 percent for the first time.

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Photo credit: Reuters/Joshua Roberts (Voters get ballots on election day November 2008)


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Interesting poll. What I dislike about the 3-way question is that it’s between 1 Democrat and 2 Republicans. If you ask that question, naturally Obama would win, and one or the other of the Republicans would lose big w/ the other in the middle because you’re splitting the Republican vote, but not the Democratic vote. It was the same when pollsters did this before W’s second term (polls showed W winning handily in the three-ways w/ Kerry & Edwards). Doesn’t provide much insight other than who the better challenger might be. And even then, the one-on-one polls (Obama-Romney & Obama-Palin) can show that too- Romney is just flat-out the stronger candidate against Obama, but Palin keeps the race closer than people might have guessed.

Posted by killen | Report as abusive

Finally the pieces are beginning to fall in place as fellow Americans are beginning to realize the sterling qualities of Mitt Romney.
Mitt Romney will indeed be an extraordinary leader whose experience, judgment and values coupled with his understanding of the challenges confronting our beloved country, will be a worthy leader.
Thank God, in less than a year, fellow Americans are beginning the truism than elections are not about emotional feeling but vision, philosophy and ideas.
MITT, may the Good Lord preserve you for the 2012 race.

Posted by Kweku Ananse | Report as abusive

1. It’s a Rasmussen poll. They always lean right. Still, even with that on the table, the results are indeed shocking.
2. Will the Republican party even exist or have relevance in 2012? At the rate at which they’ve been self-destructing, without a significant turnaround, they won’t matter.
3. Will Palin even run? And if she does, will she run as a Republican or a third-party candidate? If she does run as a third-party candidate, that actually makes the three-way question a bit more interesting.

As an admitted Obama supporter, I would much rather see Palin in a one-on-one with Obama than Romney. Romney’s a sharp tack who could actually pose an intellectual challenge to the incumbent. Palin’s questionable decision-making and frigteningly low intellect make her a non-factor in any real contest.

Posted by Chucky Sly | Report as abusive

the media built up this myth about obama,that he is this super human,and unfortunate if things start to go wrong then he has a long way to fall,then what do the democrats do? because every thing has been built around him.has biden or any of the other democratic leaders any credibility?no,all their prospects hinge on him,

Posted by brian lee | Report as abusive

President Obama has been in office for little over seven months. During that time he has been working very hard to reinvigorate America in so many different ways. The economy for starters: getting the country back on track after the debilitating recession and loss of confidence in the banks and the financial sector. Trying to change course after an eight year lack-lustre leadership by George Bush is by no means easy. But Obama is pragmatic. He realises that the American electorate will only be convinced by deeds and not merely by words. By extolling Americans to follow his plans, President Obama will have to be pragmatic to the core with no wasteful spending!

Posted by Pancha Chandra | Report as abusive

i concur with brian lee: will the media allow its creation (obama the american mahdi)fall, or will its spin meisters manage to package any opponent or alternative as orwell’s goldstein?

Posted by jd | Report as abusive

In answer to Chucky saying Palin has a frighteningly low intellect. Well, Palin can deliver a speech from a teleprompter as well as, if not better, than Obama any day.

Posted by TC | Report as abusive

In my opinion, Romney is everything Obama pretended to be. He actually is intelligent and can speak well (without a teleprompter) and truly does know how to run things and turn enterprises around.

Obama is rapidly proving to be an empty suit. He is running America as if he has a list of issues to resolve and he is trying to quickly put a check-mark in as many boxes as possible to boldly proclaim “mission accomplished” but he could care less about whether his solutions work or how much they cost. They are all hastily prepared with little analysis and review and come with a cost that will bankrupt the United States of America.

I suspect that by 2012, America will heartily support Romney because after three and a half more years of haphazard leadership from the Oval Office, we will desperately need the skills of the guy called a ‘turn-around artist’.

Posted by ATL-9 | Report as abusive

chucky sly,at the rate that the republicans are self destructing”are you serious? latest polls are showing a dramatic fall in democratic support from independent voters.people are see limitations in obama as the retoric and the results are completely different.the change that he talked about is a reality of once being in work and now being unemployed.the obama flag waving is starting to go sour as people are now more uncertain about the future when they reflect on the amount of money that the democrats are going to borrow.this is just now starting to sink in.

Posted by brian lee | Report as abusive

I don’t think anyone can save our country from collapse unless Mitt Romney gets elected in 2012. He has an impeccable character, is known for his ability on economic issues and for turning companies profitable (no one disputes that Massachusetts was in the red and Romney pulled it into the black during his administration) and he will put our country first. The ones primarily responsible for Romney not getting the Republican nomination were the Evangelicals that were afraid everyone would jump on the bandwagon to become Mormon if he was elected. So, they helped elect a guy who has never run even a candy stand before, and with radical Muslim leanings. Mormonism must have something going for it to cause fear like that. Did everyone become Catholic when John F. Kennedy was elected? Come on, let’s get our heads on straight. Romney would make a great president!

Posted by Barbara Ellsworth | Report as abusive

My wife and I both like Obama. We didn’t want McCain/Palin. If Romney was/is on the ticket for ’08/’12 we would have/will vote for him hands down. I thought we both fit into some small minority that feel this way. If this Rasmussen poll is correct, we’re not alone. I thought Romney had a real chance at becoming elected because of his impeccable resume, and was dissappointed when he didn’t.
The good news for me was that Hillary and McCain didn’t win as well. So instead of a major war, we get a major recession. I’ll take a recession over war any day. Thank you, Obama.

Posted by Don | Report as abusive

fair comment don i would have voted for romney,my only problem is has obama got grit to confront these world leaders in an emergency,he seems to have problems even dealing with joe biden.

Posted by brian lee | Report as abusive