Do-over on missile defense — reading between the lines
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President Barack Obama’s new missile defense plan is an exercise in reading between the lines.
Does it signal a diminished threat from Iran if he is scrapping the Bush-era system that was to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic? Obama’s plan would use missile interceptors based on ships.
Former President George W. Bush would rattle off Iran and threats in the same sentence so often that sometimes it seemed all roads to fear led to Tehran. He wanted the missile shield as protection. 
Obama said one factor guiding his decision was updated intelligence assessments of Iran’s missile programs that emphasized the threat of short- and medium-range missiles capable of reaching Europe.
So the unsaid line appears to be that the threat from a long-range missile is not prevalent.
Greg Thielmann, a former State Department intelligence official, said it became evident that Iran was not reaching some of the milestones needed to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile before 2015 as an intelligence estimate in 1999 had predicted.
On the nuclear threat, we’ve learned that key judgments still stand from a 2007 intelligence report that said “with moderate confidence” Iran had not restarted its nuclear weapons program as of mid-2007.
The timing of Obama’s announcement — the week before the U.N. General Assembly and G20 meetings where he will mix with other world leaders — is worth raising an eyebrow. Why give away a bargaining chip ahead of time?
The fact that the announcement comes on the 70th anniversary of the Russian invasion of Poland on Sept. 17, 1939, may be worth raising the other eyebrow.
Photo credit: Reuters/Morteza Nikoubazl (missile driven past picture of Iran’s supreme leader during parade in Tehran in April), Reuters/Raheb Homavandi (Man in Tehran reacts to a camera in April)
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Bush’s worthless foreign policy and costly defense philosophy get another brick taken out. I think Obama’s timing for the decision was important, but I think the timing has nothing to do with Poland or the threat of Russian aggression and everything to do with current national debates, displeasure with conservative bully tactics, and certainly the health care reform discussion. To me it somehow conveys a message of “I can be very rough on your conservative pet programs, so watch your butt.”
Yep, Obama will keep taking down those Bush “National Security” bricks, until he’s completely undone US defense. I guess we can use all those bricks to pave the way to another war when America’s enemies see us as too weak to win, or with too little will to fight (another road we’re going down with Obama).
Alienating one’s friends and appeasing, well…, everyone else, is like a great way to go in foreign policy…
There’s almost certainly a quid pro quo in here somewhere. Time will tell what the Russians had to compromise on.
Nice. I would like to know how the Navy will carry this out. I would like to know more about how the sm-3 actually hits it’s target. I would like to know at what altitude it needs to be at to be effective. I would like to know how fast or slow it moves. It is 90% effective for KNOWN targets. Oh and most of that techie stuff is on the net. Old tech with new sensors that can only hit known objects. Someone needs to do an article on the…ah never the F mind. Party on.
Dumb move, seriously dumb. As a negotiator you don’t give anything till you get something. Obama got nothing and put a hell of a lot of people at risk. Yeah they love ya all now. LOL Chumps.
If you read the facts you will find that the military doesn’t want it, as there are better and cheaper alternatives. I will listen to the military before a bunch of posturing Republicans defending another one of their military boondoggles. As for Alienating our allies? Almost all allies support this. Even Czechoslovakia. Poland is the only one that has expressed disappointment.
Great move by Obama. Now if he can find enough spine to kill off the Star Wars boondoggle we can start getting serious about a recovery.
Obama made the announcement on September 17? Go to your history books and see what happened on September 17, 1939 and see if he’s trying to send a message.
How can you sink trillions in to a program and then just decide not to finish it. Who ever thought that the U.S. government was responsible enough to run health care?
This is part of the change I voted for.
How ignorant of those who think that this is a good move for Obama’s administration and for United States!!! Selling out Czech Republic & Poland to appease Russians can only be compared to what Richard Chamberlain 1938 Chamberlain when he went to Munich, Germany, and negotiated with Hitler on the Czechoslovak annexation to appease Hitler and Germany. He was ecstatically received on his return to England, praised for bringing ‘peace in our time’. However, Germany advanced against British allies and within a year Britain was at war.
Soviet Union and Russian president have ZERO respect for this president and they’re just for an opportunity to humiliate him and this country. Anyone thinking that this is a good thing for USA is a FOOL & an IDIOTA (politically clueless and history ignorant).
As disagreeable as this plan may seem, it is likely a stop-gap to allow for proven tier defenses to undertake the role until GBI can become more stable and enter production. Notice the mention of the radar as a predecessor, it is already in production (LRIP).
We spent tens of billions on a system that would protect us well into the 21st century – the f-22 – that is also being cut. Why? Our enemies (yes, we still have those) must be rolling on the ground at laughter at the stupid Americans.
Words fail me. And, I voted for him.
That is good. because that is our victory.
and progress also.
Thx
Pramod
Obama also knows that the Israeli’s are about to take out the Iranian nuke capabilities.
Being friends with the Russians is a little more important than the folks in Tehran.
Well, non of that anti-missile technology works, and the longer range missiles it’s targeting the less reliable they get. So, at best – Obama done a great thing. Also, you have to totally mental to assume that Iran will ever attach USA or Europe with inter continental missiles, not unless they all turn suicidal at the same time.
It’s really amazing how many paranoid people with totally out of this world beliefs there are.
There are much better things to spend money on then these useless anti-missile systems. How about trying to catch up with the rest of the world on education? America is getting dumber and dumber, survives only thanks to influx of good brains from the rest of the world…
and on health care.. if you think that for-profit organizations in whose best interests is to deny as many claims as they can are better qualified to manage health care system – there is something really wrong with that logic..
I guess you’d agree to privatize police and fire stations too.. let’s make the for-profit
Between the lines…it means focus of US foreign policy is now on non-proliferation and strategic nuclear weapons disarmament. It also means revisiting IAEA authority under NPT regime and revising NPT intrusive inspection rules and regulations and (SC) reporting system.
BHO is not interested in international conflicts and their management…his focus of policy is (re)enforcing peaceful co-existence with Russia and China.
Between the lines…it means focus of US foreign policy is now on non-proliferation and strategic nuclear weapons disarmament. It also means revisiting IAEA authority under NPT regime and revisiting NPT intrusive inspection rules and regulations and (SC) reporting system.
BHO is not interested in international conflicts and their management…his focus of policy is (re)enforcing peaceful co-existence with Russia and China.
How can you sink trillions in to a program and then just decide not to finish it. Who ever thought that the U.S. government was responsible enough to run health care?
- Posted by Kevin
Kevin, this was a PLAN to build bases Poland and the Czech Republic. A PROPOSAL by the Bush administration. No money was spent on the PLAN, well OK maybe few million on studies and reports but not trillions of dollars. We have the missiles already and they can be used elsewhere if we need to.
This is scary, Mr. President. Iran is INCREASING nuclear missile capabilities. What is going on?
It’s not always only about the US, people.
Ask yourselves where those NATO allies of yours are going to get there energy (gas) from?
If your allies freeze in winter will they still be allies come summer?
Europe needs Russian gas.
And anyway John Hellmann who the hell are you defending yourselves against? You spend more than all the rest of the world on weapons as it is! IS that strategy really working?
(OF course the US is also a leading arms supplier…)
It’s good news, imagine how the Russians felt about having it on their borders. Amelioration of Russian irritation is the right move and shows Obama is sincere in seeking to “reset” relations with Russia. Better than irritating a nuclear armed and oil rich Russia into another mini cold war! The real deal is prevention of nuclear proliferation, because prevention is better than cure. With Russian cooperation that is a more achievable goal. So well done Obama. You get my vote!
Look at a map, or better a globe. There is no way a central Europe anti-missile shield (even if the US had one that worked) could intercept a long-range ballistic missile aimed a the US from Iran. Russia, however, is a good target for sub-launched ballistic missiles of which the U.S., France, and UK have several dozen, even though several are being retired and more are planned to be abandoned to the ocean deeps. Russia consider the Czech-Poland program as provocative to protect Europe from a Russian counter-strike. The original idea of the ABM treaty was to leave both the U.S. and the USSR defenceless against nuclear attack except for capitals that could survive a first strike and still have someone to agree to a post-strike armistice. The US and Russia still have thousands of nuclear war heads, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and subs despite major reductions. Confidence building and eventual trust between the US and USSR are still necessary for either country to have any security. The U.S. naval shield (if it works) would product NATO from nuclear attack from Iran, Syria,Israel, Palestine. or Egypt and do not constitute a threat to Russia. If we deployed muclear launch vessels to the Eastern Mediterranean or Black Sea Russia would e exposed to an unbearable insecurity, just as the US was when the Russians installed missiles in Cuba
which haed they hung tough would have led to a US attack on Cuba, and if necessary the USSR. No sane national leader would risk WWIII except to avoid unbearable threats (as did Kennedy and Krushev) from irrationally led countries. Iran and North Korea qualify as being led by madmen. China must surely be developing an antimissile shield, and Japan seems likely to do it as well. (Such shields are ostensibly defensive weapons and would be poltically acceptable. The US must be prepared to place ship launched anti-missile systems (whether they work or not) in the Sea of Japan and the East China sea, unless China and Japan deploy anti-missile systems that appear to work.
US preemption of intercontinental nuclear-tipped missiles in N. Korea, Iran, and Syria would be well within its power (although thousands of civilians would die, but the US must remember that it is US allies who would be threatened first. it would have to insist on its allies risking their planes and sharing the credit or blame, but all that is years in the future. A more immediate threat is intermediate-range nuclear equipped missiles. Air breathing cruise missiles are cheap, easy to develop even by countries without much advanced technology (e.g. V-1 in WWII, and can be targeted within 50 meters using commercial GPS systems in cell phones. If Iran does develop nuclear weapons and launch vehicles, the world will learn about it when Israel has dropped a few dozen nukes from in-flight refueled fighter-bombers. Iran’s leaders are begging to be attacked. They may well be bluffing (as Saddam was), but when Israel feels threatened, it doesn’t dither, it acts.
The immediate future is gloomy. It only takes two to tango, and the bets are down that it will be Iran and Israel who start things off, unless Iran is willing to open itself to international inspection with no closed doors. I would guess that war in the next two years is more likely than not.
I thought it was Germany that invaded Poladn in 1939?
Great move!
With this, US is not going to collapse or compromise its national security, but returns are high—the war in Afghanistan.
Republicans need to stop getting pararnoid!
Republicans like McCain are still not out of the cold war mentality. Obama is more aggressive than Bush at the right places—like in Pakistan. Where it mattersm I am ready to put my buck, rest I don’t give a f$$$.
Where did the Bush administration get the idea that Iran was planning to attack Eastern Europe? Or was the entire plan some right-wing, back-to-the-Cold-War craziness? George Bush and the conservatives he represented have done more damage to our country and the world economy than any regime since Adolph Hitler. He truly was the worst American president ever.
Barack Hussein Obama is an enemy of America. The feel good environment he created during the election campaign was highly successful at pulling every last uneducated voter out of the cracks, and with his victory the countdown to America’s demise has accelerated.
The missile defense program was never presented honestly. It is indeed intended to blunt the nuclear threat from within Russia’s borders. This isn’t because Bush and Cheney saw Russia as foolish enough to start a nuclear war though. Russia is in an accelerated state of collapse, as your good friend Joe Biden has so diplomatically pointed out, and as security there becomes unsustainable, it is only a matter of time before Islamic militants gain possession of a single warhead, or worse, a functioning missile silo.
When this happens and you’re watching the trail streak across the sky above your children, you’ll be praying it strikes someone you don’t know, in a city where you are not, hopefully downwind… and I doubt very seriously that you will blame your golden O-boy.
It is not logical to appease any of our enemies with weakness. The United States exists as a free country because we are well armed. Ask Thomas Jefferson.
Gullible idiots.
Although Iran doesn’t have the technology of its own and uses North Korean and Chinese experts it’s become more dangerous in terms of ballistic missiles.
Looking precisely at the recent space activities we can realize their true aim: reaching to the intercontinental ballistic missiles.
I agree that there are ultimately other interests involved besides America. The whole Russia being the source for much of Europe’s gas is one of the different dimensions. Of course there are many opinions surrounding this (http://tinyurl.com/nrretn) and I think Obama has made a good decision. Bush’s decisions had a very ‘Cold War’ undertone.
It is going to be perfectly obvious sooner than we think that unlike what we were told by the democrats that all this countries problems in the world were the sole responsibility of George Bush.Although Obama has only been in power for 8 months in that short time the impact that we were told that his new “smart talk” policies would have made have not shown any results .World leaders are now increasingly showing disregard to any accords or proposels that he releasing. Ahmadinejad knows that this president has not got the resolve that the last president had, and we will see this played out down the road mark my words!