Tales from the Trail

Reasoning with the Taliban

October 13, 2009

AFGHANISTAN/OBAMAIn the past few weeks, as President Barack Obama closes in on a decision about sending more troops to Afghanistan, a couple of alluring ideas have resurfaced in Washington.

The first is that talks with the Taliban, or with members of the fundamentalist Islamist movement, might be worth pursuing more agressively, to advance the day that U.S. troops could begin to leave.

The second is the suggestion the Taliban in Afghanistan might be willing to sever its ties to al Qaeda, or that growing Taliban influence there may not directly threaten the United States.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said there was a clear distinction between “a global transnational jihadist network that seeks to strike the United States” and a Taliban movement whose capability is “somewhat different.”

Enticing ideas they may be for a White House seeking an easy way out of an almost impossible situation, but regional experts have been quick to point out some serious flaws.

Right now, even the U.S. military admits the Taliban has the initiative in Afghanistan.

The movement has little interest in talks, still less in ceding anything meaningful, when it believes it only has to stick around for the day that the United States finally wearies of the war and leaves the region.

Nor are large-scale defections likely unless and until the United States regains the initiative in the Afghan war.

Throughout history, Afghan commanders have shown a strong tendency to defect to the winning side. Some of them could be tired of war, and a few could be bought off, but many will be extremely reluctant to join what they see as the losing side.

The second idea, that a resurgent Taliban is not focused on striking the United States, was exploited by Taliban last week, when they said they have no plan and had never had a plan to harm foreign countries. Their only goal, they said, was independence and the establishment of an Islamic state.

It is an idea that many Afghan experts see as dangerous. Lisa Curtis of the Heritage Foundation described White House distinctions between the Taliban and al Qaeda as a “Shibboleth” and incongruous with the facts on the ground. AFGHANISTAN/

Bruce Riedel of The Brookings Institution, who helped Obama draw up his original strategy review in March, says it is a “fairy tale” to think the Taliban can be split off from al Qaeda. The bar for determining whether the Taliban are willing to enter into serious talks, he argues, should be whether they are willing to hand over Osama bin Laden.

For eight years since Sept. 11, 2001 the Taliban and al Qaeda have lived, fought and died together in the mountains and deserts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Many intelligence analysts say ties between the two groups have grown stronger.

Several times in the past few years, the Pakistani military has signed truces with the Taliban movement, sometimes in exchange for a promise not to harbour foreign fighters from al Qaeda.

The truces, like one signed in the Swat Valley in February, were often sharply criticised by the United States, seldom lasted long, often left the militants stronger, and did nothing to bring al Qaeda’s leaders closer to justice.

Whether the United States should send more troops to Afghanistan remains a very difficult question to answer. But to expect too much from reasoning with the Taliban would, experts say, be ignoring the lessons of history and experience.

Photo credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque (Obama speaks about elections in Afghanistan at White House in August), Reuters/Carlos Barria (U.S. soldier in position as smoke rises from artillery fire against Taliban militia in Afghanistan in August)

Comments
3 comments so far | RSS Comments RSS

yeah the reason the taliban has the initive is becouse we havn’t launched any offensive operations against them. The pakastanis see us as hypocrits for begging them to kill the tallies well not doing anything ourselves. We are in aphganistan for geopolitics. If we wern’t we could have easilily finsihed the taliban in a couple months.

Posted by ben | Report as abusive
 

I was always confused on why we even started fighting the Taliban…the reason for going to Afghanistan initially, was to find the leader of the group that flew jets into the towers of the world trade center. The Taliban had nothing to do with that. al Qaeda should have been the only target. Being mired down in a war by an 2nd enemy that we brought in was not wise. We even had a historical record showing what happened when Russia attempted a similar thing.

Posted by rob | Report as abusive
 

The reason Obama has procrastinated as to the finalizing of his policy in Afghanistan,was he hoped that all the appeasing and apologizing to the different players would have gained him support, allowing him have leverage with Iran and consequently with the Taliban.The press release from the Whitehouse on the optimism of an agreement with Russia as to sanctions against Iran has been rejected by the Russians ,like many have said ,they have just playing Obama. RUSSIA HAS RELEASED A STATEMENT THAT THEY AGREE THAT THERE MIGHT HAVE TO, AT SOME TIME IMPOSE SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN ,BUT THIS MIGHT NOT BE THAT TIME!So inconclusion it looks like the only reward that Obama has received from all his servitude at the UN conference has been his nobel peace prize.

Posted by brian lee | Report as abusive
 

Post Your Comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/