GOP, conservatives seen dominating November turnout

October 8, 2010

USA-POLITICS/Bad news, Democrats.

The crowd most likely to vote on Nov. 2 is a lot more Republican and a lot more conservative than the one that gave Congress to the GOP in 1994.

So says a new Gallup survey that forecasts Republican and conservative majorities at polling stations for the congressional mid-term elections.

Fifty-seven percent of people who call themselves likely voters are Republican or lean Republican, while 54 percent are conservative, according to Gallup.

Compare that to pre-election polling data from 1994 which showed likely voters to be 49 percent Republican and 40 percent conservative.

Meanwhile, Democrats have slipped from 33 percent of likely voters to 30 percent over the course of those same 16 years.

Liberals have grown, but only from 12 percent to 18 percent.

The body politic’s increasing polarization might be seen in a shrinking crowd of moderates, who dropped from 48 percent of likely voters in 1994 to just 27 percent this year, according to Gallup.

The survey, which has a 2 percentage point error margin, assumes a voter turnout of around 40 percent. 
Of course, the news isn’t all bad for Democrats. 
The Gallup data doesn’t take into account the fact that people vote for Congress district by district and that years of gerrymandering has turned many of those districts into partisan ghettos. 
KUNKLEThe findings don’t reflect regional differences, either. For example, a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll shows Democrats leading in statewide races in California, while a new Quinnipiac poll suggests a strong Democratic showing in New York.
Then again, one might expect Democrats to lead the polling in states like New York and California. 

Photo credits: Reuters/Chris Keane (Voters in West Virginia); Reuters/Wim McNamee (Republican with Head Gear); Reuters/Gary Hershorn (Democrat with Head Gear)

One comment

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see

[...] Back Congress, and Stop the Tax HikesFOXNewsBloomberg -Real News Network -Reuters Blogs (blog)all 654 news [...]

[...] ChronicleBringing Up BoehnerHuffington Post (blog)Buffalo News -CNN International -Reuters Blogs (blog)all 931 news [...]

[...] Fix 50: Democrats make marginal gains, majority still in jeopardyWashington Post (blog)GOP, conservatives seen dominating November turnoutReuters Blogs (blog)CNN Political Ticker (blog) -New York Times (blog) -The Salinas [...]

[...] on-campus participationCentral Michigan LifeConservative Momentum Continues To BuildWEBCommentaryReuters Blogs (blog) -McClatchy Washington Bureau -Washington Post (blog)all 744 news [...]

You get the government you deserve, so if Democrats do not go out and vote… they will get a Republican congress and deserve it.

Posted by peterpetch | Report as abusive

[...] (blog)On GOP hubris and true higher edAtlanta Journal ConstitutionWashington Post (blog) -Reuters Blogs (blog) -North Jefferson Newsall 1,050 news [...]