Clinton vs. Trump: It’s a tie
Donald Trump is starting the New Year on top, writes Chris Kahn, U.S. political polling editor for Thomson Reuters. Trump continues to dominate the Republican field for the presidential nomination and is now pulling even with Hillary Clinton in support among all voters.
In a hypothetical head-to-head race, the real-estate tycoon and TV personality would be supported by 39 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 40 percent for Clinton, according to the latest 5-day average from Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.
The poll asked respondents who they’d pick if the 2016 presidential election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.
- Clinton: 40%
- Trump: 39%
- Other/Wouldn’t vote: 21%
5-day average of 1,336 likely general election voters.
The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points, which means that Trump and Clinton are in a statistical dead heat.
Reuters started asking the Clinton-Trump matchup question last month as both firmed up support within their parties. Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump for the past few weeks, though the difference has narrowed since the start of the year.
It’s important to note that the November election is still far away in the minds of the American voter. Many are still getting to know the candidates, and it may be months before they settle on a choice for the White House.
Still, while Ted Cruz may win the Iowa caucus, Trump remains the clear GOP frontrunner. He has considerable appeal among a variety of groups within his party, including women, born-again Christians and people who earn less than the national average income. He also draws more support than other Republicans among liberal-leaning independents, and he’s maintained a stranglehold over the GOP nomination.
Nationally, Trump currently leads with 41 percent support among Republican voters – more than double the support of Cruz, his nearest challenger, at 16 percent.