Clinton vs. Trump: It’s a tie

January 8, 2016


Tied in a statistical dead heat: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. REUTERS combo

Donald Trump is starting the New Year on top, writes Chris Kahn, U.S. political polling editor for Thomson Reuters. Trump continues to dominate the Republican field for the presidential nomination and is now pulling even with Hillary Clinton in support among all voters.

In a hypothetical head-to-head race, the real-estate tycoon and TV personality would be supported by 39 percent of likely general election voters, compared with 40 percent for Clinton, according to the latest 5-day average from Friday’s Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll.

The poll asked respondents who they’d pick if the 2016 presidential election was held between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton.

The answers: 

  • Clinton: 40%
  • Trump: 39%
  • Other/Wouldn’t vote: 21%

5-day average of 1,336 likely general election voters.

The poll has a credibility interval of 3 percentage points, which means that Trump and Clinton are in a statistical dead heat.

Reuters started asking the Clinton-Trump matchup question last month as both firmed up support within their parties. Clinton has maintained a lead over Trump for the past few weeks, though the difference has narrowed since the start of the year.

It’s important to note that the November election is still far away in the minds of the American voter. Many are still getting to know the candidates, and it may be months before they settle on a choice for the White House.

Still, while Ted Cruz may win the Iowa caucus, Trump remains the clear GOP frontrunner. He has considerable appeal among a variety of groups within his party, including women, born-again Christians and people who earn less than the national average income. He also draws more support than other Republicans among liberal-leaning independents, and he’s maintained a stranglehold over the GOP nomination.

Nationally, Trump currently leads with 41 percent support among Republican voters – more than double the support of Cruz, his nearest challenger, at 16 percent.




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Clinton may not be very popular but she is clearly the most qualified of the two. To win against Trump will be easy. But she would lose against a more qualified Republican.

Posted by pbgd | Report as abusive

Whatever the motivations and delusions of Americans, the rest of the world must be hoping Clinton does not stumble. She is the “conservative” in the sense of a reasonably capable leader and administration with predictable interests and priorities. From what we have seen and heard from Trump, he is the “radical” with potentially amazing right wing and populist ratbaggery, and lynch mob scapegoating.
A President Trump would eclipse Dear Leader Kim Jun Un as something from theatre noir. “We are all NOT Americans now”.

Posted by Neurochuck | Report as abusive

“May the odds be ever in your favor”

Posted by Laster | Report as abusive

“Clinton may not be very popular but she is clearly the most qualified of the two.”

Wow…What hoops people jump through in their own heads to justify her constant lying, obvious corruption, and–oh yeah–her criminal federal investigation.

Posted by thebruce | Report as abusive

@Neurochuck Maybe I am the crazy one because I really only discuss politics with other Republicans. However, just from the positions that Trump puts on his website. He doesn’t seem any farther right than any other Republican.

Posted by Sewblon | Report as abusive

Just goes to show you how bad Hillary is. Bush was so bad that even Obama could win against him. Shame on Schultz and the DNC for undermining Anyone But Hillary. Now America is poised tonelect ANYONE but Hillary

Posted by spongeblog | Report as abusive

The photo selected of Trump is very unflattering – shows him with a cry-baby expression, while the photo selected of Hillary shows her with a determined look.

Liberal bias in the media ?? Nahhh ….. just a figment of your imagination they tell you.

Posted by Anthonykovic | Report as abusive

Trump is working for Hillary. He’s been a friend of their family for 30 years. The democrats have finally figured out how to turn republican ignorance into Democratic White House wins. Run a fake white supremacist candidate in the GOP primary. Perfectly legal way to throw a wrench in the republican yogurt.

Posted by Solidar | Report as abusive

Nothing about the republican party is American any more. The entire party is a train wreck which is the only reason someone with absolutely no skills, no common sense, and no policy positions polls so well with voters with similar skills. Clinton will easily knock off Trump.

Posted by Whipsplash | Report as abusive

There is NO way Clinton is tied to Trump, we do not need another NEOCON to keep destroying this nation, no Clinton’s and NO Bush’s….how sadistic can people be to vote for this Liar or the other Liar Bush, a drug runner to-boot….We are considered to be the most corrupt nation on Earth due to these Crime families and now this other neocon dictator Obama, another Liar.
Trump or Sanders…..either one will be better the Bush or Clinton…

Posted by stonehillady | Report as abusive