Then came social issues and ‘morality’…
The Tea Party’s November victories and the ensuing Republican drive for spending cuts are in large part the result of a political strategy that focuses tightly on fiscal and economic matters, while minimizing rhetoric on moral questions and social topics. But for how much longer can Republicans keep a lid on the culture war?
The 2012 presidential race, though lacking in declared GOP candidates, may be about to pry open a Pandora’s box bearing the name of social issues that have long divided Republican and independent ranks. And such an occurrence could work against the interests of fiscal conservatives, just as the GOP girds itself for a showdown with Democrats over spending cuts and the debt ceiling later this spring.
Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, one of those Republicans who are running for president without actually running for president, tells NBC’s Today show that social conservatism is what built America and made it strong.
And if a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows 65 percent of GOP primary voters preferring candidates who focus more on the economy and the deficit, and less on social issues? ”I think we can walk and chew gum at the same time,” he replies.
Even the battle of the budget shows signs of becoming a Republican morality fight.
Here’s Santorum speaking to social conservatives in Iowa: “…if what we’re doing to the next generation of America, this entitlement attitude, if that is not a moral issue, I don’t know what is…”
And Newt Gingrich: “…balancing the budget is an essentially moral, not economic question…”
Palin: White House decision months away
Sarah Palin said in an interview aired on Friday that she is months away from deciding on a run for president but would not be fazed by weak poll numbers if she chose to seek the Republican Party nomination.
“It’s a prayerful consideration,” the former Alaska governor and 2008 vice presidential nominee told ABC’s “Good Morning America.” “Other folks can jump in and that kind of helps you get that lay of the land. But my decision won’t be made for some months still.”
Palin has become a celebrity of the Republican Party and the Tea Party movement over the past two years by gaining recognition as a best-selling author, a television pundit and the host of her own TV reality show. She is currently promoting her second book, “America by Heart.”
She is among more than a dozen Republicans who are believed to be considering a White House run against President Barack Obama in 2012. But her potential candidacy has already divided Republican ranks. Some party officials see her as a potential front-runner with a large grass-roots base. But others say she lacks the gravitas to oust Obama, even if he were struggling.
An ABC/Washington Post poll shows her lagging Obama by 22 percentage points in a hypothetical match-up and says six in 10 voters would not consider voting for her.
“A poll number like that? That doesn’t look really pretty today,” Palin conceded to ABC. “But a primary is months and months in the process, and there are thankfully many debates. And if I were to participate in that contested primary, I would be in it to win it.”
Photo credits: Reuters/Rick Scuteri (Palin) and (Palin’s Book); Reuters/Paul Hanna (Obama)
She hsn’t decided yet, she might hsve the White House painted pink or is it still too soon after the cold war to do that yet, maybe red, white and blues stripes…
Washington Extra – The octopus is dead, long live the opinion pollster
We start this afternoon with the sad news of the demise of Paul, the psychic octopus who captivated the world this summer with his uncanny ability to predict the results of Germany’s World Cup soccer matches.
Fear not, though. There are other ways to divine the future, and especially the results of next week’s midterm elections.
But first of all Washington Extra would like to categorically deny that Paul, just before taking his last gulp of water, predicted that Republicans would win control of the House and Democrats would cling onto power in the Senate. It’s just not true. And if he did, he was only reading our poll data.
Talking of which (nice segue, huh?), our latest Reuters/Ipsos poll from Pennsylvania makes interesting reading today. It shows Democrat Joe Sestak drawing level with Republican Pat Toomey, with both men now tied at 46 percent.
It is quite a turnaround for Sestak, who was trailing by 10 percentage points in our last poll in late August, but seems to have struck a chord with voters after accusing his rival of wanting to export jobs to China. Another clue, perhaps, that some of the midterm races might be a bit closer than they appeared a couple of months ago.
Here are our top stories from Washington today…
Key Pennsylvania Senate race in dead heat
Who needs an octopus when the GOP has the Kochtopus?
Feingold trails in new Reuters-Ipsos poll
Liberal stalwart Russ Feingold trails his Republican challenger by 7 percentage points in a new Reuters-Ipsos poll of Wisconsin’s Senate race released on Tuesday.
With less than a month to go before the Nov. 2 elections, Republican Ron Johnson leads Feingold, a Democrat, 51 percent to 44 percent among likely voters.
That’s good news for Republicans, who are counting on a Wisconsin victory to help win control of the Senate. Not so good for Democrats, who could see the three-term incumbent swept out of office due to worries about the economy.
Johnson, who owns a plastics company, was seen in the poll as being “the best person to help generate jobs in Wisconsin” — 49 percent compared to 36 percent for Feingold.
By a 42-28 percent margin, Feingold was more likely to be seen as “part of the problem with politics right now in this country,” according to the poll.
The poll, taken between Friday and Monday, has a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.
In the governor’s race, Republican Scott Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Tom Barrett, by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Another poll comes out in favor of gays in the military
As Congress mulls “don’t ask, don’t tell,” a new poll finds support for repealing it.
A CNN poll showed that 78 percent, or nearly 8 in 10 Americans believe people who are openly gay should be allowed to serve in the U.S. military.
The results of the survey of 1,023 adults, conducted May 21-23, were similar to earlier polls — 81 percent in Dec. 19-21, 2008 and 79 percent in May 4-6, 2007.
“Support is widespread, even among Republicans. Nearly 6 in 10 Republicans favor allowing openly gay individuals to serve in the military,” Keating Holland, CNN polling director, said on its website. “There is a gender gap, with 85 percent of women and 71 percent of men favoring the change, but support remains high among both groups.”
A Gallup analysis this month found “broad, steady support” for openly gay members of the military. Gallup’s last poll on the issue, conducted May 3-6, showed 70 percent in favor.
Gay rights advocates who supported President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign have demanded that he follow through on his pledge to repeal the “don’t ask, don’t tell” policy. On Monday, the White House backed a proposal that would allow Congress to repeal the policy, but delay implementation until the Pentagon completes its review in December.
The Pentagon issued a statement that wasn’t exactly a ringing endorsement, more like a reluctant acceptance of political realities.
The First Draft: Talk shows help drive Palin’s popularity
If Sarah Palin were elected president of the United States, would conservative talk show hosts Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck wind up in her cabinet?
That’s a toughie. But Palin already tops the list of Republican Party favorites and that fact is due in part to her popularity with Limbaugh’s and Beck’s audiences, according to a Washington Post poll. Seventeen percent of Republicans, including 23 percent of Republican women, say they would vote for Palin if their party’s 2012 state primary election or caucus were held today.
She out-guns Mike Huckabee who got 10 percent of the vote, Mitt Romney at 9 percent and John McCain with only 7.
There are plenty of reasons not to see the numbers as a sign of things to come. The primaries are more than two years off. The poll happens to coincide with a major Palin publicity tour to promote her new book, “Going Rogue: An American Life.” Oh, and 40 percent of the people surveyed are undecided about who they want as the next Republican nominee.
But the Post said Palin polls particularly well with talk show audiences that include some of the most loyal Republican voters.
Forty-five percent of regular Limbaugh radio listeners say they’d vote ‘Palin’ in their state primary or caucus. So would one-third of those who tune in regularly to Beck’s radio and television programs. There’s this, too. While 46 percent of Republicans overall think Palin has had a good effect on the party, the numbers jump to 80 percent for Limbaugh listeners and 70 percent among Beck’s audiences.
Another toughie: which talk show host might expect to get the best job in a Palin administration?
The First Draft: Poll shows growing U.S. support for Afghan troop increase
If President Barack Obama opts to increase the number of U.S. troops in Afghanistan next week, the decision could be underscored by something a bit unusual for his policies: growing U.S. public support. Polling data have shown for a while now that most Americans don’t favor many of Obama’s policy positions, despite his enduring personal popularity. A USA Today/Gallup poll depicts Obama battling headwinds on a number of fronts: Americans oppose the closing of Gitmo by more than a 2-to-1 margin; those against healthcare reform edge out those in favor by 5 percentage points; and most don’t want accused Sept. 11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Mohammed tried in civilian court in New York City. Afghanistan is no cakewalk, either. Public opinion is divided over the question of more troops and 55 percent of Americans disapprove of the president’s handling of the war up to now — a reversal of his 56 percent approval rating four months ago. But the polling data, compiled Nov. 20-22, might also suggest a silver lining for the president as he nears an announcement that could send 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan. Less than half of Americans — 47 percent — favor a troop increase. But that’s up from 42 percent in a Nov. 5-8 survey. Plus, the opposition is down: 39 percent of Americans now want the president to reduce the U.S. military footprint, vs. 44 percent earlier. What hasn’t changed for Obama is that Republicans, not fellow Democrats, are his best buddies when it comes to increasing troops. Seventy-two percent of Republicans back a bigger U.S. force in Afghanistan, while 57 percent of Democrats say it’s time to start pulling out.
That could be important for Obama’s agenda in Congress as the 2010 election approaches and Democratic incumbents in tight races consider how they might fare with Democratic voters.
The USA Today/Gallup findings are based on telephone interviews with 1,017 adults. The margin of error is 4 percentage points.
Photo credits: Reuters/Jason Reed (Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates); Reuters/Mathieu Belanger (U.S. soldier departs for Afghanistan); Reuters/Lucas Jackson (NYC crowd watches Obama)
Lincoln raised taxes to pay for the Civil War. McKinley raised taxes to finance the Spanish-American War. Wilson raised the top income tax rate to 77% to afford WWI. Taxes were raised, multiple times, to help the nation pay for WWII, Korea, and Vietnam. Even the first President Bush raised taxes after the first war with Iraq to keep the deficit from spiraling out of control. It was simply understood — responsible leaders from both parties realized that wars were expensive, and had to be paid for.What we saw from George W. Bush and Republican lawmakers during his two terms was without precedent in American history — policymakers cut taxes during a war, ran huge deficits, and effectively asked future generations to pay for our current national security agenda. The two current ongoing conflicts have cost $1 trillion and counting. If the Obama administration sends an additional 30,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan, it would cost about $30 billion per year over existing spending on the wars.The question I have for our two resident right wing clowns is very straightforward — do they expect future generations to pick up the tab, or do they support higher taxes now to pay for the conflict?
The First Draft: What if Congress turned Republican on Obama?
A Republican-controlled Congress could be a real possibility for the second half of President Barack Obama’s four-year term, according to the latest Gallup poll. The poll of 894 registered voters suggests Republicans would win the U.S. House of Representatives by 48 percent to 44 percent if the 2010 congressional election were held today.
The Republican lead is well within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error. But the results indicate that Republicans might have some momentum after gaining steadily on Democrats since July.
People who participated in the survey were asked only about their local House districts, so the results mean little for that other congressional chamber, the U.S. Senate.
It’s way too early to gauge the outcome of a congressional election that won’t be held until November 2010. The primaries that choose the parties’ respective candidates don’t even begin until early next year. And as Gallup points out, the poll measures only voter preference, not likely voter turnout.
But a revival of Republican popularity could spell trouble for Obama, given that the GOP appeared to gain ground as the president’s main domestic priorities — healthcare and climate change reforms — gained public attention. Meanwhile, Democrats slipped 6 percentage points overall and plunged 12 points among independent voters.
Republicans would be in a very strong position to shut down much of Obama’s agenda if they won control of the House for 2011 and 2012. A Republican House would also pose a greater challenge for a 2012 Obama reelection campaign. Tangible risks for Obama’s agenda could also lie closer at hand, if the whiff of electoral defeat encouraged enough Democrats today to avoid White House initiatives that might have political consequences tomorrow.
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The First Draft: $829 billion — and that’s the good news
You’ve no doubt heard the old saying about money and Washington: a billion here, a billion there, and pretty soon you’re talking about real money. That seems to be the case for fixing U.S. healthcare.
President Barack Obama got some good news from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office yesterday, which estimated that a healthcare plan by the Senate Finance Committee would cost $829 billion. CBO said this plan would cut the budget deficit by $81 billion over 10 years.
There was good news this morning too, as the Labor Department reported new unemployment claims at a nine-month low.
These moves are so recent they haven’t shown up in polls tracking whether Americans approve of how Obama is doing his job. The president’s job approval rating has been wiggling around 52 percent for the last three weeks, according to an average of poll results by RealClearPolitics.com. Disapproval ratings for the same period floated around 42 percent.
He’s still doing far better than Congress as a whole, which generally gets dismal poll ratings. It certainly is now, with the RealClearPolitics average approval rating at 25.8 percent, with a 66.5 disapproval rating.
Which brings up today’s question: is this kind of minute attention to polls worthwhile? Does it impede the business of government? Is it interesting to anybody outside the Washington Beltway? Let us know.
It’s worthwhile if the methodology is legitimate. A lot of us want to know what our fellow lunatics are thinking, in case they vote. We only hope that people realise that it takes some number of hours for news to show up in a poll. We also hope that legitimate news coverage remains readily available, and that people maintain some minimal competence on the issues, so that we don’t end up with such polls slamming around on positive feedback, telling us nothing and stressing us.
Everything old is new again
Some things never change. Take, for instance, the fact that a president does not make decisions based upon the polls.
Polling seems to be a flourishing business. Pollsters survey us on just about anything. Click on the Pew Research Center’s website and you’ll find polls on such issues as our views on torture and warrantless wiretapping, or President Barack Obama’s skills as a communicator.
George W. Bush said over and over again he did not make decisions based on polls. So we wanted to point out that Obama borrowed some of Bush’s phraseology in talking about polls with interviewer Jim Lehrer of PBS’ “Newshour.”
He was talking about his decision to remove most U.S. troops from Iraq over 18 months while leaving up to 50,000 troops there with all to be out by the end of 2011.
Roll the videotape:
MR. LEHRER: You’re not the least bit uneasy over the fact as John McCain and John Boehner, the Republican leader of the House, have praised your plan while the Democrats are criticizing it?
PRESIDENT OBAMA: You know, I don’t — I don’t make these decisions based on polls or popularity. I make the decisions based on what I think is best. This is consistent with what I said during the campaign. The fact — if anything I think people should be interested in the fact that there’s been a movement in the direction of what I thought was going to be the right plan in the first place.
people are being asked to take obama on face value,but because the majority of the people still don,t much about him, thats a problem.the press were so against bush they let the american public down shamefully,by actually protecting him from regular scrutiny.all the shouts of the chosen one and the rest of the fan fare had people jumping on the band wagon with out any real judgment.he might be what the blind swooners think he is, but we are not sure yet.what is so scary is when he is standing there, and you look at the people standing behind him,these people in congress have very little creditability among the average american.
If you listen to Republicans, you’ll hear plenty of proud boasts about how their priorities reflect the will of the American electorate.
And if you listen to the American electorate, you’ll hear something else entirely.