Tim Castle

For many observers it's the key question for the Liberal Democrats -- who they would support in a hung parliament -- Brown's Labour or Cameron's Tories?

But ask the people at the top of the party at their conference in Bournemouth (and I have) -- Nick Clegg, Vince Cable, Chris Huhne, David Laws, even new party chief executive Chris Fox -- and they all deny they are considering the issue, let alone discussing it.

"We are concentrating on maximising our vote," is the common mantra. Why waste time speculating now on possible election scenarios, they say.

Well, even if they were, would they tell ever us? History suggests the party will be making some plans for a possible coalition at some stage before the election, expected in May, even if they aren't right now.

Former leader Paddy Ashdown has written about "the project", his secret and abortive talks with Tony Blair ahead of the 1997 election on a centre-left alliance between the LibDems and Labour.

David Laws spoke earlier this week about his role in preparations for coalition talks in the Scottish parliamentary election of 1999.

And this week in Bournemouth another former LibDem leader, Menzies "Ming" Campbell (pictured), revealed his own pre-election coalition planning -- for the 2007 election that Gordon Brown never called.

Campbell said that during his short tenure as leader between March 2006 and October 2007 he had taken his shadow team away frequently to discuss what they would do if the expected election left them holding the balance of power.

"We used to go away quite a lot and discuss this," Campbell said at a fringe meeting hosted by the Independent newspaper.

"I used to put two questions to my colleagues. If after a general election no one party has an overall majority, would we be right to support a Labour party and a Labour government which had failed to obtain a majority in the country, and therefore lost a vote of confidence in the country?

"Or would it be right to support a Conservative party which is wholly opposed to electoral reform and viscerally anti-European?"

But if ever asked by a journalist what the party's plans were, he would repeat the formula: "Maximum votes, maximum seats, maximum power." Of course, Brown never called that poll and Menzies stood down without ever fighting an election as LibDem leader.

Campbell gives more details in this short clip I recorded with him after the event.

Difficult - that's how Liberal Democrats' treasury spokesman Vince Cable sums up the outlook for Britain's economy as it comes out of the recession.

He spoke to Reuters during an interview at the LibDem autumn conference in Bournemouth.

A senior Liberal Democrat has lifted a lid on the murky world of coalition politics - a touchy subject for the party which last tasted national power in Britain in the brief Lib-Lab pact of the late 1970s.

Leader Nick Clegg says he is not wasting a "millisecond" speculating on the outcome of the coming general election, expected next May.

But his Education Spokesman David Laws (pictured) has revealed that, at least until 1999, the party had a standard coalition document ready for use just in case it held the balance of power in a hung parliament.

“I understand it had been going around since 1970,” Laws told a fringe meeting at the party's autumn conference in Bournemouth.

“It was dusted off feverishly for every general election -- the party leaders got extremely excited that they were going to be sweeping into power -- and then it was dusted away into the bottom drawer afterwards.

“Although it was dated 1999 I suspect it was redated on a fairly frequent basis.”

Brandishing the thin document, Laws told the Liberal Democrat History Group how he had been given it 1999 when Paddy Ashdown sent him, not yet an MP, up to Edinburgh ahead of the May election that year for the new Scottish parliament to help possible coalition talks.

In the vote Labour under leader Donald Dewar became the largest party with 56 seats, but needed the support of the LibDems’ 17 members for a majority in the new 126 seat chamber at Holyrood.

“There was huge pressure and scrutiny as the Scottish election came to an end, expectations that (coalition) decisions would be taken quickly,” he said.

“The people involved in the campaign were absolutely exhausted. I think one of the challenges for us is to make sure, if future occasions arise, that we move as quickly as possible.”

It took a week of fraught negotiations to seal the coalition deal, which in the end was not based in the old LibDem document, but on the text of a more substantial coalition agreement signed by the parties sharing government on the other side of the world in New Zealand.

Does today's Liberal Democrat party have a similar pre-prepared coalition agreement ready to hand?

In the video clip below you can hear Laws deny that any such document exists today - but is there the trace of a smile when he says that? You decide.

A ComRes/Independent poll this week says Gordon Brown has staged a stunning political recovery and that the Labour party is now just one point behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.

Yet only four days ago an ICM/Guardian survey said Conservative popularity had returned to its summer peak with 45 percent of voter support and a lead of 15 points.

Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting has published tables to show that ICM's polls have been more consistent over the past year, with Comres swinging from giving the Tories a massive 22 point lead in July to its latest wafer-thin difference.

But it is not only these two polling companies who are producing contrasting results. In recent days we have also had a similar split between an 11-point Tory lead from Ipsos-Mori in the Observer and a mere 4 point Conservative advantage from YouGov in the Telegraph.

Which poll are we to believe? Even a seasoned commentator such as Strathclyde University Politics Professor John Curtice says he has no simple explanation.

He says the key events that shifted voter intentions back towards Brown were the Labour Party's autumn UK conference and the government's victory in the Glenrothes by-election, with last week's Pre-Budget Report having less of an effect.

"Until the ComRes poll came out it looked as if the post-Glenrothes bounce was beginning to wane," he told me.

"The Pre-Budget Report didn't seem to be having much of an impact, but maybe rather than waning it's still holding on. We'll have to wait for the next poll."

Are more women choosing to have a Down's Syndrome baby despite learning from a prenatal scan they are carrying a child with the condition?

The Down's Syndrome Association charity believes this is the case. Its conclusion has been widely followed in press reports, including in the Daily Mail, Independent and the Times.

But research data published in response by the National Down Syndrome Cytogenetic Register (NDSCR) in London suggests otherwise. It says that the rate of terminations of unborn Down's Syndrome babies has remained constant since prenatal screening became widely available in 1989.

The Down's Syndrome Association says its help desk has been receiving an average of two calls a week from expectant mothers who have received a positive scan for the condition who say they are continuing their pregnancy, a much higher rate than two to three years ago.

And it points to figures from the NDSCR showing that more Down's Syndrome babies are now being born in England and Wales than before the start of widespread prenatal screening -- there were 749 births in 2006, the latest year figures are available, compared to 717 in 1989 and a low of 563 in 1995.

The number of Down's Syndrome births as a proportion of all live births has also increased by around 15 percent since 2000.

Carol Boys, the chief executive of the Down's Syndrome Association said in a press release she was surprised by the numbers.

"It seems to show that more parents are thinking more carefully before opting for prenatal screening and termination –- that being born with Down’s syndrome is being seen in a different light today."

Together with the BBC, the Association conducted a survey of parents of children with the condition to find out "why more women are opting to go ahead with their pregnancies".

The findings suggest that attitudes to people with the condition or other disabilities have changed for the positive. Some 35 percent of the parents asked said they felt life and society had improved for people with Down's Syndrome.

But an examination of birth and termination data cited by the Association and compiled by the NDSCR fails to show that more mothers are indeed pressing on with their pregnancies.

NDSCR Research Director Professor Joan Morris, based at the Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine in London, told me she had issued a release of her own in response to the charity's claim.

The release says: "92 percent of women who receive an antenatal diagnosis of Down’s syndrome decide to terminate the pregnancy. This proportion has not changed since 1989."

"I'm pretty annoyed with the Down's Syndrome Association that seem to have totally the wrong end of the stick," she said.

"The story as we see it is massive increases in the number of Down's Syndrome pregnancies, due to maternal age increasing, and a lot more screening going on.

"That is causing a lot of the pregnancies to be diagnosed prenatally and women decide to have terminations.

"These two big increases are matching against themselves ... and the end result is that the number of births is increasing very slightly. But it's nothing to do with women deciding to keep their pregnancies."

[Picture shows Down's Syndrome performer Hu Yizhou from the China Disabled Peoples Performing Art Troupe conducting at a rehearsal for a concert in Seoul in this March 2004 photo. REUTERS/You Sung-Ho]

Newspapers are crediting Gordon Brown with Labour's surprise win in the Glenrothes by-election and says it has ended any talk of a cabinet coup.

They say his gamble to break with the convention that a prime minister does not campaign in by-election polls succeeded. Brown visited the seat twice, while his wife Sarah was on the local trail at least half a dozen times.

"This was a high-risk strategy, but it paid off. Now, as a result, it looks as if Mr Brown himself won the by-election," said the Scotsman.

"Gordon Brown's political renaissance continues apace after an astonishing result on his home turf that was beyond Labour's wildest dreams and neither side predicted," said the Daily Telegraph.

"Lindsay Roy is the new MP. But Glenrothes is Gordon Brown’s triumph," said The Times. "Two months ago it looked as if this contest could seal the end for Mr Brown. Now it has confirmed a truly remarkable comeback. Labour’s general election majority was halved but, because of the way expectations had developed, this result had all the feeling of a landslide."

Brown's frequent appearances on national television as he tackled the financial crisis also helped prevent a repetition of the Scottish National Party's crushing victory in Glasgow East in July, the Times added.

For the Financial Times it was "a result that confirms Gordon Brown’s political revival and is likely to ignite speculation over a possible early general election."

The Guardian said the victory would "put a spring in Brown's step" and said he was now secure from a leadership challenge. "The retention of Glenrothes protects Brown still further: there is no way that future Labour activists will chant "Remember, remember the 7th of November" as they recall an attempted 2008 plot."

But The Independent reminds readers that retaining what was after all a safe Labour seat does not mean the next general election is in the bag. "The remarkable turnaround will lift the spirits of Labour's MPs and activists. But, as they breathe a sigh of relief, they will be under no illusion about the electoral mountain Labour still has to scale to win the next general election."

(Photo: Labour candidate Lindsay Roy celebrates after winning the Glenrothes by-election. REUTERS/Stephen Hird)

Peter Mandelson has told the Observer that he and Prime Minister Gordon Brown have put their differences behind them and the pair are now "joined at the hip".

But that didn't stop Conservative leader David Cameron enjoying a joke at Mandelson's expense on BBC TV's Politics Show.

Put on the spot, an embarrassed-looking Cameron admitted that Conservative wags had named a unit of time after the newly-appointed Business Secretary's surname.

The Tory wits define it as the time it takes between meeting the former EU Trade Commissioner and him saying something rude about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Cameron confirmed.

"The point is that everyone who knows Peter Mandelson who has bumped into him recently has heard that he doesn't always have great things to say about the prime minister," the Tory leader said.

Taking note of the apparent rapprochement between two of the architects of New Labour, Cameron added: "A Mandelson will probably get a bit longer now."

Stockport councillor Linda Holt started the queue for David Cameron's closing speech at 10 a.m. this morning -- four and a half hours before the Conservative leader was due to walk onto the stage at Birmingham's Symphony Hall.

With 10,000 registered attendees -- the highest at a Tory conference for many years -- and only 3,000 seats, an early start was essential for those wanting to be in the arena to hear Cameron's hour-long address.

(Reuters photographer Stephen Hird snapped this picture of Cameron on his way to rehearse the speech)

Last year the queue for Cameron's closing oration snaked all the way through the exhibition halls of Blackpool's Winter Gardens and almost out into the street. Many were turned away.

Holt was celebrating her 55th birthday by ensuring she would get a good position in the hall. But she said she didn't want to hear anything "airy fairy" from the man who could be PM.

"He's got to make an impact today ... his speech is the one that everyone is waiting for," she said. With events elsewhere pushing the conference to the inside pages, Holt said Cameron needed to deliver "some real dynamic stuff."

By 11:30 a.m. -- three hours to go -- there were already more than 100 in the line. By 1:30 p.m., and still an hour before the start, the queue had grown so large the hall was officially declared full.

Ken Wood, 49, councillor in Longbridge and a parliamentary candidate in the safe Labour seat of Wolverhampton South East, said he wanted to hear Cameron talk about "stability".

"Whether or not we are in difficult times. We'd be foolish to try to ignore it... but I've no doubt it will be very powerful, very straightforward and very focused."

But Steven Bainbridge, 20, chair of a Newcastle University conservative student group, was bold enough to go off message and rebel against the conference's officially sombre tone .

"We do need the serious stuff but it would be good to have a bit of triumphalism. I think when it's the closing speech we need the chance to let our hair down."

David Miliband was photographed clutching a banana at the Labour conference last week in Manchester, much to the delight of his political opponents, inside and outside his party.

Life-size cardboard cut-outs of the grinning Foreign Secretary committing his fruity faux-pas have now appeared all around the Conservative conference at Birmingham's International Convention Centre.

At his feet, Tory organisers generously piled carboard boxes of bananas, each labelled with a special Miliband badge.

The great American comedian W.C. Fields famously warned "never work with children and animals". And avoid fruit with comic overtones,  Miliband might add.

It's a good thing Michael Gove has a sense of humour.

The Conservative shadow schools secretary is in Birmingham preparing for his big speech on education to the party conference on Tuesday.

But the Mail on Sunday decided to distract him by digging out an scurrilous student newspaper report from his days at Oxford in the late 1980s.

Under the lurid headline "Top Tory Michael Gove and a five-in-a-bed Oxford 'romp'", the Mail added the important clarification "...er, it was 20 years ago and nothing actually happened".

The 1988 article in student paper Cherwell claimed that Gove, then president of the Oxford Union debating society, had shared a bed with four other students after a charity ball.

When I told Gove I hadn't had that much fun at university he laughed and replied, "Neither did I."

"Anyone who has been at university will know that university gossip columns are less reliable even than Labour party budget forecasts.

"What happened is that I slept in the same flat as some other students.

"I think that goes on in universities up and down the country every day," he said. "But the other thing that goes on is that people enjoy making mischief."

Gove, now married with two children, doesn't know if the story hurt his reputation. "It may have enhanced it in some ways."