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Tales from the Trail

Tracking the 2008 U.S. campaign

December 30th, 2007

White House hopefuls woo swing voters in N.H.

Posted by: Caren Bohan
Tags: Tales from the Trail: 2008

NASHUA, N.H. - When Republican presidential hopeful Mitt Romney dropped by a diner here this week to chat up voters, Harry Harris, 51, was happy to meet him and didn’t mind accepting one of his campaign stickers.

However, when asked by reporters if he was in the Romney camp, Harris made clear his vote is still up for grabs.

“There are way too many people and it’s too much information,” said Harris, a limousine driver, as he had breakfast at Norton’s Classic Cafe. “I’m still trying to read up on everything I can.”dsc_0033.JPG

Harris is an independent who is typical of many New Hampshire voters who have not finalized their choice with only 10 days left before that early-voting state’s primary contest. The nominating contest has tightened on both the Democratic and Republican sides in the last few weeks. In New Hampshire, predicting the race is made all the more difficult by the state’s high proportion of independent voters.

People in New Hampshire, particularly the independent voters, wait until late before they make a final decision,” Republican hopeful Sen. John McCain said on Friday. He has been soaring in polls in the state giving Romney a run for his money.

Independents were a main base of support for McCain when he won New Hampshire in 2000 against George W. Bush who ended up winning the nomination and the White House. But this year, many independents who lean Republican are also looking closely at Romney.

More than four in 10 voters in New Hampshire are “unaffiliated.” Those voters, whose ranks have been growing, outnumber the voters in each of the two main parties and they can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.

Polls show that on the Democratic side, Sen. Barack Obama is attracting more independents than his rivals like Hillary Clinton who has a strong base of support within her party and is seen as weaker among independents.

Obama’s fortunes may be interwined with McCain’s, said Stephen Wayne, professor of government at Georgetown University. “If McCain does well in New Hampshire, Obama is hurt,” Wayne said. “I think Hillary is rooting for McCain.”

rtx52wc.jpgMany New Hampshire-ites do not like to admit it but what could be hugely significant to their vote is the outcome of the Iowa caucus next Thursday. The five-day gap between the caucus and the New Hampshire primary is a shorter window than in past years and analysts are unsure how that will affect the race.

“It would be foolish from people in New Hampshire to make up their minds before they see the Iowa results,” said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia.

The two states often go their separate ways in the nomination process but not always. In 2004, New Hampshire essentially “ratified” Sen. John Kerry as the Democratic choice after the senator won Iowa, Sabato said.

For Michelle Strout, 33, a fundraiser for Southern New Hampshire University, the candidates and their convictions matter more than party affiliation.

“For me the core of it all is I would vote for whoever was going to be the most honest,” she said. Strout views Clinton, Obama and Romney as “too rehearsed” and she said she was likely to vote for McCain. 

– Additional reporting by Scott Malone

– Photo credit: Scott Malone, Keith Bedford

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