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Tales from the Trail

Tracking the 2008 U.S. campaign

March 12th, 2008

Fewer Americans know Iraq war fatality numbers

Posted by: Ed Stoddard
Tags: Tales from the Trail: 2008

DALLAS - The Pew Research Center reported on Wednesday that the U.S. public’s awareness of the number of American military fatalities in Iraq has fallen sharply over the last few months, underscoring the waning interest in the war ahead of November’s presidential election.

Only 28 percent of adults now can correctly say that approximately 4,000 Americans have died in the Iraq war, the nonprofit research group said.

That’s down from August 2007, when 54 percent of those surveyed correctly identified the fatality level at that time — about 3,500 deaths.

The nationwide poll of 1,003 adults taken from Feb 28 to March 2 also found that more respondents underestimated than overestimated the number of fatalities. A plurality of 35 percent said there had been about 3,000 troop deaths, while another 11 percent said they thought just 2,000 have died. Around 23 percent put the number closer to 5,000.

Pew noted that the fall in fatality awareness comes as news coverage of the conflict diminishes.

Pew reported in late February that public attitudes toward the war in Iraq had turned more positive as the security situation there seemed to improve.

The polling group said this was a favorable development for expected Republican nominee John McCain, who is an unflinching backer of the war effort and was an early supporter of the “troop surge” there.

Democratic candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both say they will begin withdrawing troops quickly if either wins the November election.

21 comments so far

Did Pew ask how many Iraqi citizens have died in war related violence? As a well informed person, I’d estimate 600000 people, but I’ve not seen any attempt at such an estimate in the press in perhaps a year…

- Posted by John Orbell

Pew should ask media people in local markets around the country if they have been told by management to lay off Iraq stories. That would make a very interesting survey.

- Posted by Mary

John Orbell…
Thanks for calling attention to the number of Iraqis killed since the U.S. invasion of their country. The citizens of the most powerful nation in the world don’t generally concern themselves with the deaths of “others.”

- Posted by Sanford Russell

The human rights group Iraq Body Count estimates up to 89,300 Iraqi civilians have been killed since 2003.

This figure is often cited by Reuters in stories and factboxes.

(For the record, I am a Reuters journalist)

- Posted by John O'Callaghan

How many Iraqis have been killed, and was this really necessary in retrospect? Should all people who oppose something about what America stands for be killed? Is there another way to change people other than killing them?

- Posted by Thomas Heilmann

So many people have died and things have been a mess for so long who is paying attention anymore. If you ask me this is just a lame way of trying to say that there’s an improvement because there are less U.S. soldiers being killed lately. Eridanus

- Posted by Eridanus

How many Iraqi citizens died during Saddam Hussein’s rule?

- Posted by John

What does it matter to you how many died under Saddams rule?
That is like saying we need to police the world. If you want more of our children and it seems to be lately, our 40+ uninsured, to die in foreign combat, then keep electing Chicken Hawks.

- Posted by nan

Thomas Heilmann wrote “Should all people who oppose something about what America stands for be killed?”

Yes, according to George W. Bush, who once said “you’re either with us or you\’re against us.”

- Posted by Paul

- How many Iraqi citizens died during Saddam Hussein’s rule?

John, you are missing the point…

- Posted by Thor

“PEW” is so totally adequate for their findings. Simply another “WASHINGTON WHITEWASH” THE TRUTH IS THE SURGE IS/WAS AS INEPT AS THE WAR!!! THE KILLINGS ARE DOWN NOT BECAUSE OF THE SURGE…. BUT BECAUSE Al Sidar called off the dogs… BUSH ET AL!! HAVE A REAL PROBLEM WITH THE TRUTH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!PLUS IT APPEARS VIOLENCE IS ON THE UP NOT ONLY HERE BUT IN AFGANASTAN 6 YEARS ON A ROAD TO NOWHERE!!!!

- Posted by s hunter

Of that 89,300 estimate quoted by John O’Callaghan
above, how many of those fatalities were actually at the hands of international forces?
Try not to be so naive as to think every single one of those people was ruthlessly murdered by American armed forces because they were not. It is however a bit troubling to see people “estimate” as John Orbell did and throw out an absolutely absurd 600,000 count. Where did you get your erroneous data points to estimate from John?

- Posted by Jon

Someone please explain the benefits of knowing exactly how many troops have died at any given moment up to and including right now. Tell me why it is such a bad thing to not know exactly? Now let me tell you, I don’t care. They don’t come back to life because I count their body and memorize the statistics daily.

Have a war. Don’t have a war. I really don’t care. Do remember however that I don’t have to care because one of you said I should. Remember that or you are no better than the dictators running this planet.

- Posted by Jon

are you suprised?
a recent survey found that 20% of american adults think
the sun revolves around the earth.
need i say anything else?
we are doomed

- Posted by dick bohanon

The war dead in Iraq isn’t 86000 or whatever Iraq Body Count state. Read their goddamned website, they say this is just the figure they confirm, and they say the war dead is more likely to be the figure that the Lancet, and multiple other scientific studies estimate of 1 million.
300,000 killed directly by US forces.
Read the methodology before denouncing it. There is no way this methodology can produce the wrong answer in my opinion.
You might not like it, but there are 1 million dead from US involvement in Iraq.
Emptying penitenturies into the army, refusing to take Traumatically stressed soldiers out of the war zone, and giving them 2 billion bullets a year not to mention shells etc, what else would you expect?

- Posted by jeff

John Orbell didn’t take the figure of 600,000 deaths attributed to the U.S. invasion of Iraq from thin air. It’s the figure given in a study reported in the medical journal “Lancet,” one of the most (perhaps the most) respected medical journal in the world. Click on the URL’s below for the study and articles from the “Washington Post” and the Australian “Age.”

http://web.mit.edu/CIS/pdf/Human_Cost_of _War.pdf
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/10/10/AR2006101001442. html
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/th e-iraq-deaths-study-was-valid-and-correc t/2006/10/20/1160851135985.html

Also anyone interested in further commentary, including some rather harsh criticism, can go here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lancet_surv eys_of_Iraq_War_casualties

“Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: a cross-sectional cluster sample survey”PDF (242 KiB). By Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Shannon Doocy, and Les Roberts. The Lancet, October 11, 2006

From Wikipedia:

“The second survey[2][3][4] published on 11 October 2006, estimated 654,965 excess deaths related to the war, or 2.5% of the population, through the end of June 2006. The new study applied similar methods and involved surveys between May 20 and July 10, 2006.[4] More households were surveyed, allowing for a 95% confidence interval of 392,979 to 942,636 excess Iraqi deaths. 601,027 deaths (range of 426,369 to 793,663 using a 95% confidence interval) were due to violence. 31% of those were attributed to the Coalition, 24% to others, 46% unknown. The causes of violent deaths were gunshot (56%), car bomb (13%), other explosion/ordnance (14%), air strike (13%), accident (2%), unknown (2%).”

- Posted by Sanford Russell

The last report that came out in May 2007 said there were 73,000 Gulf War deaths since 1991. Search out ‘Gulf War Veterans Information System’ to find .pdfs on the subject.

- Posted by nunya bizness

I have heard it is over 1,000,000 Iraqis have been killed, and you have to multiply that 4000 US dead by 3 to get an accurate amount of US soldiers that have died, remember, if they make it into the copter before their heart stops, it “doesn’t” count…

- Posted by T. Mooney

The real issue is that the awareness of the war is fading in the mind of the American masses. It appears that concern over the war in the popular mind is less about the human costs, and more about whether the U.S. might be “losing”. With the surge chalked up as a success and attention diverted to the economy and the election this survey’s findings should come as a surprise to no one. Americans as a nation do not give a rip how many people have died, or will die, so long as they can claim a victory. They lament their own losses and could care less about how many Iraqi’s have been killed. Although putting precise numbers on casualties puts the destruction of human lives in scope for those of us who might care, the fact of the matter is that the American Public values victory more than the lives of those lost. The priority currently placed on the war and the public’s correspondingly low level of awareness simply underscores this point. The dilemma is that inventing a victory in Iraq is beyond the powers of prevarication and political manipulation of any American regime. Without the ability to generate victory and unable to accept a loss, America will stubbornly continue with her Iraqi war. The number of dead will continue to increase and you can continue debating the precise number from the comfort of your home for many years to come. Take heart.

- Posted by John Korpi

Since 1962, over one million Americans have died from intentional and accidential shootings. Not a good reason for banning handguns.
Every year 17,000 Americans die from drunk drivers. Not a good reason for banning alcohol.
In the last 6 years, we have lost 4000 Americans fighting terrorism in Iraq and Afganistan. A good reason to bring our troops home?
Doug

- Posted by Doug

The main reason that most Americans don’t know how many troops have died in Iraq is they don’t care. So many Americans driving around with flags on their car and their empty false patriotism but they don’t really want to make any real sacrifices for the nation. Americans are all patriotic until it actually comes to do something for their nation apart from display a cheap plastic flag made in China. This is hardly surprising when the Commander-in-Chief is a coward who dodged his any real duty when the nation called. For his faults at least McCain has actually served his country and hopefully he would force America to become aware of the cost. Even better bring back the Draft. The sooner Americans pay the price for their political choices the better.

- Posted by Martin

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