UK News

Insights from the UK and beyond

from The Great Debate:

How to trust BP again

The Environmental Protection Agency is allowing BP to once again bid on new leases in the Gulf of Mexico -- which could happen as early as Wednesday.

As a condition of lifting its ban, the E.P.A. last week issued 53 pages of requirements for the company, which now must create a beefed-up code of conduct for employees; establish a zero tolerance policy for retaliation against whistleblowers; train senior leaders in ethics, and dole out bonuses related to issues like safety and environmental sustainability.

But BP had much of that in place before the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster, which killed 11 people and spilled millions of gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. During my time as a manager of policy development at BP (which ended in 2008), I had to certify every year that I complied with the company’s code of conduct. I used the company hotline when I thought a manager was behaving inappropriately, and was impressed by how my complaint was handled.

Then came Deepwater Horizon. I was as appalled and angry as everyone else in the aftermath of the explosion, as BP repeatedly failed to cap the gushing well and multiple investigations portrayed BP as a company that took too many risks and cut corners in pursuit of profits.

from The Great Debate UK:

Budget day: Politics not economics

--Sam Hill is Senior UK economist at RBC. The opinions expressed are his own.--

The headlines generated by the forthcoming UK budget are likely to be political rather than economic; the general election is next year. Despite a faster than expected fall in unemployment and inflation, macroeconomic developments since the December autumn statement present limited scope for forecast revisions to government borrowing. But come the post-budget analysis, some of the seemingly esoteric revised economic assumptions may have important consequences for how the budget is perceived politically.

The modest changes we do expect to the economic forecasts would be seen as positive in essence. Small upgrades to the growth outlook should translate into borrowing reductions of  between £3 billion and £6 billion per year throughout the five-year horizon. That would leave the underlying measure of borrowing at £332 billion for the six years to 2018-19, down from £358 billion in the existing forecast from December, which itself represented a significant improvement on last year’s budget.

from The Great Debate UK:

Budget preview: Don’t expect pyrotechnics

--Nick Beecroft is Chairman, Saxo Capital Markets, Saxo Bank. The opinions expressed are his own.--

Those expecting a rivetingly exciting spectacle when the chancellor announces his budget next Wednesday will be in for disappointment, but that doesn’t mean that this won’t be an intensely political budget, given this really represents his last chance to make changes which will be fully appreciated by the electorate by the next general election. Having said this, his room for manoeuvre is limited, and the effect on the overall fiscal balance will be minimal.

from The Great Debate UK:

Budget background: Dark with light patches

--Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.--

Spring has sprung.

The grass has riz.

I wonder when the Budget is….

On 19th March actually or, more importantly in this age of nonstop campaigning, six weeks before the European elections and barely a year away from the general election. Since the 2015 Budget will be too late to affect our wallets before we go to the polls, this is George Osborne’s last chance to reassure us that the economic situation is under control. Will he be able to resist the temptation to give us a reward for our patience through four years of austerity and to reassure us that the misery is nearly over?

from John Lloyd:

Even a billionaire cannot save the EU from itself

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The world’s richest hedge fund manager, George Soros, says Europe’s great project, the European Union, is at risk. Even if it survives it is doomed, he says, to a period of stagnation and fragility, rendering it powerless on a world scene dominated by powerful blocs.

At 83 and insisting that he has retired, Soros still commands attention. He appeared at the European Council on Foreign Relations in London on Wednesday (he is a main funder) where he offered an off-the-cuff judgment that a central bank in an independent Scotland would be a risky endeavor. He generated headlines in a country that is nervous of a breakup of the Union. He dominated the morning’s BBC Today program, required listening for all public figures. He addressed a packed lecture hall at his alma mater, the London School of Economics and attended a meeting at the House of Commons.

from Nicholas Wapshott:

European leaders show their weakness

 

The European Union, at the forefront of the hostilities between Russia and the West, is in a bind.

It has belatedly adopted Ukraine as one of its own. Yet the EU economy is so frail,  thanks to its beggar-thy-neighbor economic policies, that it is reluctant to use financial and trade sanctions to punish Russia for occupying Crimea and threatening to occupy the eastern part of Ukraine.

from Hugo Dixon:

Independent Scotland won’t keep the pound

An independent Scotland will not keep the pound. That’s despite this being the express wish of the Scottish government, which is campaigning for independence in September’s referendum. The reason is that it’s hard to see the rest of the UK agreeing to such a deal – except on terms that would affront Scotland’s amour propre.

One can understand why Edinburgh is keen not to change its monetary arrangements. If Scotland had its own free-floating currency, it would be less economically integrated with the rest of the UK. Given that 60 percent of its exports and 70 percent of its imports are with the rest of the UK, such a separation would hit hard.

from Photographers' Blog:

Morning Glory

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London, Britain

By Andrew Winning

Morning Glory is the antidote to a room full of rowdy, drunken party-animals lurching out of step to booming dance music. Here, sleepy-eyed clubbers queue up quietly in the early morning, some still in their pyjamas and dressing gowns, before filing into the venue.

Others wearing fancy dress stretch and warm up as they try to generate some enthusiasm in the pre-dawn gloom. Once inside the venue, patrons pick up a coffee or a smoothie, maybe do a little yoga or have a massage before the music draws them onto the dance floor.

from The Great Debate UK:

Was Nigel Farage right about mothers in the City?

And the award for foot in mouth this week goes to… UKIP, again. This time it was leader Nigel Farage, who said that women who take time off to have children are worth less to their employer. He said this to an audience of (presumably) men in the City and rounded it off by saying there is no sexism in financial services and that childless women are more than a match for their male counterparts.

While I am not normally in the position of defending Nigel Farage, or any other politician for that matter, I think his comments deserve our attention and women should use them to trigger an important debate about mothers and the work place.

from Anatole Kaletsky:

Will Britain really leave the European Union?

Is it conceivable that Britain will leave the European Union? A few years ago this question would hardly have been worth asking.  In the past 12 months, however, the issue of EU withdrawal has shot into the British political headlines.

The latest, and apparently most authoritative, such headlines appeared this week, after a pugnacious speech by George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer and second most powerful figure in the British government. Reuters headlined the Chancellor’s comments like this: “Reform or lose us as a member, Osborne tells the EU.” The Daily Telegraph highlighted the same message: “Osborne warns Britain may leave EU over reform failure.” The BBC headline concurred: “Osborne – Don’t force UK choice between euro and EU exit.”

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