A ComRes/Independent poll this week says Gordon Brown has staged a stunning political recovery and that the Labour party is now just one point behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.
Yet only four days ago an ICM/Guardian survey said Conservative popularity had returned to its summer peak with 45 percent of voter support and a lead of 15 points.
Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting has published tables to show that ICM’s polls have been more consistent over the past year, with Comres swinging from giving the Tories a massive 22 point lead in July to its latest wafer-thin difference.
But it is not only these two polling companies who are producing contrasting results. In recent days we have also had a similar split between an 11-point Tory lead from Ipsos-Mori in the Observer and a mere 4 point Conservative advantage from YouGov in the Telegraph.
Which poll are we to believe? Even a seasoned commentator such as Strathclyde University Politics Professor John Curtice says he has no simple explanation.
He says the key events that shifted voter intentions back towards Brown were the Labour Party’s autumn UK conference and the government’s victory in the Glenrothes by-election, with last week’s Pre-Budget Report having less of an effect.
“Until the ComRes poll came out it looked as if the post-Glenrothes bounce was beginning to wane,” he told me.
“The Pre-Budget Report didn’t seem to be having much of an impact, but maybe rather than waning it’s still holding on. We’ll have to wait for the next poll.”
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5 comments so far
The only poll that matters is the one where we kick Brown out.
Thursday 6 May 2010 is as far as he can duck and weave, by my reckoning. Then out he goes.
- Posted by AndyMost people have memory of a fruit fly. Brown is like the arsonist that returns to put the fire out. The private and national debt in this country is down to him and his myopic policies.
- Posted by stephen coleCan’t wait for Gordon Brown to get kicked out. His policies have not worked yet. All he is interested in is the people with too higher a mortgage, what about the investors? Without them he will be in a sorry state. It looks like he will be forcing them to plough through their life savings all because is incompetent in his job. Hope the public realise this should there be a General Election.
- Posted by Patriciau have brown telling us about the cholera in africa what about people at home who cant aford to heat there homes its about ti wme he did something now not when winter is over forget about middle class who borred to much money against there houses that is there fault lets see proper labour party not new labour which is more torie than tories
- Posted by william thomsonI agree with Stephen. It will be even worse when people realise that you only have to earn £20,500 per year (FT 6/7 December) in order to be worse off after 2011-12 with Gordon Browns deferred tax dodges.
Perhaps he should make education compulsory so that William can learn some basic spelling and grammar as well as being aware of the fact that it is the middle class whose tax receipts have bankrolled just about every form of government expenditure in this country in the last 11 years.
- Posted by nick