For the first time since he became mayor of London on May 2, Boris Johnson has overtaken Conservative leader David Cameron in “favourability”, according to an opinion tracker published on www.politicshome.com.

Johnson scored a rating of 3, up from -7 at the end of April, while Cameron got rated 1, up from -5.

The PHI5000 tracker is based on replies from a politically balanced group of 5000 voters across the UK, who answer a survey every day for the site, which was launched in April and is powered by opinion pollsters YouGov.

The panel are asked daily questions on a rotation system, covering their attitudes to the whole political landscape. As part of this, politicshome tracks a wide range of political personalities, including Cameron’s and Johnson’s favourability ratings.

Because of the consistency of the sample and questionnaire of the tracker, the site is able to track subtle changes in public opinion, it says.

The Labour Party knew Tony Blair had to go when he became an electoral liability.

Less than a year into the job, where does Gordon Brown stand in terms of this all-important marker?

Well, don’t expect any answers from Labour’s candidate in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

Tamsin Dunwoody refused to come up with a straight answer in when she was asked the question repeatedly by a reporter. You can see the interview in the You Tube clip below.

“Gordon Brown is our prime minister” and a number of variations on that theme was her reply.

The Conservatives, whose leader David Cameron is back on the campaign trail in Crewe and Nantwich on Thursday, are gleefully circulating the clip of her interview, complete with an awkward-looking John Denham (minister for universities and skills) standing by.

Brown has been noticeably absent from the northern constituency in the run-up to next week’s by-election, which opinion polls show his party could lose to the Tories, despite it being regarded as a safe Labour seat.

The Daily Mirror is alone among the papers in giving unqualified praise to Chancellor Alistair Darling’s 2.7 billion pound solution to the damaging 10p tax row.

“Once critical Labour MPs hailed it as a masterstroke,” the paper said. “Hopefully it signals the start of a concerted fightback by a prime minister who has been on the ropes for months.”

The Daily Mail says the original decision to scrap the starting 10p rate of tax was “A mistake, yes… but fatal? Hardly.” It says Darling and Prime Minister Gordon Brown “deserve credit for choosing the right means to help those who suffered,” by raising the tax threshhold.

But the Chancellor might want to avoid the rest of the dailies, especially the one printed on pink paper. Darling’s tax announcement “ has shattered any residual idea that Mr Brown’s administration can run an orderly fiscal policy,” says the Financial Times.

The paper concedes that “in policy terms, the plan to put up personal allowances makes sense.” However, it adds that the political cost is heavy — the government will no longer now be able to attack the Conservatives over unfunded promises of tax cuts. “This is a significant weakening of the election campaign armoury,” it says.

The Daily Telegraph, somewhat grudgingly, saying that the Chancellor “deserves congratulations” for doing precisely what the paper had urged last Friday. But it adds that Darling’s statement was “a purely political damage-limitation exercise”, timed “to save Labour’s bacon” in next week’s Crewe and Nantwich by-election.

On a similar theme, the Times suggests that the late MP Gwyneth Dunwoody’s final service to the Labour Party has been in death rather than life. “It’s hard to believe that Alistair Darling would have made the statement he did on the 10p tax rate yesterday if it were not for fear of a massive defeat” in Crewe next week, Dunwoody’s former seat.

The paper calculates that the 2.7 billion pound price is the approximate equivalent of cutting the basic rate of income tax by 1p in the pound.

The Guardian notes that Darling effectively announced an emergency budget that “gave more money away than any real budget since 2001.”

The Independent says the 10p tax saga has been “an object lesson in bad government“. “What began as a cynical attempt to curry favour with the middle-classes has backfired in the most explosive manner,” it says. The Daily Express agrees it is “no way to run a country“.

The Sun asks who will be picking up the tab for the change. Unless Darling raises the money elsewhere, it draws the inevitable conclusion –”We will all pay more tax“.

(Updated on May 3 with new headline, election results, reaction and photos)

**For full coverage of the elections go to our special page**

The man described by some as a joke, by others as a brilliant mind has ended Ken Livingstone’s eight-year reign at City Hall.

The verdict is still out on what exactly Boris Johnson’s victory means for the Conservative Party overall but his performance as mayor could help determine whether people will vote for the Tories in a general election next time.

Johnson, whose experience of running big projects is limited, will lead one of the world’s most high-profile cities with an 11.3 billion pound budget to run public transport, police and fire services and promote the economy of this global financial centre.

The Labour Party may be hoping that the gaffe-prone “blond bombshell” will prove incapable of doing the job and thus damage the Conservatives chances of winning the next election. Johnson will have to get cracking soon with strong policies to bolster his image and become the ambassador that the Tories need him to be as the capital’s mayor.

Johnson paid generous tribute to Livingstone in his victory speech, describing him as “a very considerable public servant” and acknowledging that many who had voted for him had been wavering when it came to casting their votes.

“You shaped the office of mayor. You gave it national prominence and when London was attacked on 7 July 2005 you spoke for London,” Johnson said after he was declared winner in what had turned out to be a marathon vote count lasting well over 12 hours, partly due to a record turnout of 45 percent.

Livingstone in return offered to help Johnson and said that the responsibility for his defeat lay with him and him alone.

The Conservative candidate won with 1,168,738 first and second preference votes, compared with Livingstone’s 1,028,966.

Source: London Elects

The Johnson victory in London has added to Conservative delight at pushing Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s Labour Party to its worst performance on record in local elections elsewhere in England and Wales.

Senior Conservative sources said they would be “gobsmacked” if Johnson did not win the mayoral contest, the Daily Telegraph said.

Even Minister for London Tessa Jowell conceded as we waited for the final result: “You’re absolutely right that it looks, at the moment, as if Boris Johnson is ahead,” she told the BBC.

Confidence of a Tory win was boosted after one bookmaker announced it was paying out on a Boris Johnson victory hours before the official result is expected later this evening.

Opinion polls had put Livingstone and Johnson neck-and-neck, with LibDem candidate Brian Paddick a distant third.

Labour has lost at least 200 seats in the local elections in England and Wales — leaving it in its worst position since the days of Harold Wilson — and even before the results of the London mayoral contest are known, some political analysts are saying Gordon Brown will lose the next general election unless the economy improves.

But others say this was a vote against Labour rather than a vote for the Conservatives and that governments, especially those that have been in power for as long as Labour, always take a knock in local elections. Look at Tony Blair in 2004 just a year before he swept home again.

The next general election doesn’t have to be called until 2010 and even a week is a long time in politics, they point out.

Do you think the writing is on the wall for Brown, or can Labour win a fourth term in the next general election?

**Full coverage of the London mayor and local elections **

The election results for England and Wales at 8:00 p.m. with all 159 councils having officially declared.

Source: BBC

Conservative Leader David Cameron conceded this week he had broken his promise to end “Punch and Judy” politics in the House of Commons.

“I will absolutely hold up my hands and say this is a promise I have not been able to deliver,” he told BBC Radio’s Today Programme on Tuesday.

As if to prove his point, a day later Cameron accused Gordon Brown at Prime Minister’s Questions of political calculation over the 10p tax abolition and the proposed extension of pre-trial terrorism suspect detention to 42 days.

A day before local elections in England and Wales, Cameron said: “With 10p it was about trying to pose as a tax cutter. This time (on 42 days) its about trying to pose as being tough on terror.”

To uproar Cameron added: “He is putting political calculation and self interest ahead of the right decisions on the national interest.”

Brown retorted: “This is the man who wants to be both tough on crime and hug a hoodie at the same time.

“This is the man where political calculation meant he cycled to work but at the same time he had the chauffeur-driven car coming behind.

“This is the man who is a shallow salesman and never addresses the substance of the issue.”

The exchange of personal comments was too much for Liberal Democrat MP Julia Goldsworthy who told BBC television afterwards that the language used was “more suited to the playground.”

“This is the one opportunity a week to hold the prime minister to account, and I think a lot of the rowdiness is a sad reflection on the behaviour in the House of Commons.”

Pressure is growing on Gordon Brown to reshuffle his Cabinet after Thursday’s local elections to take some of the sting out of the drubbing his Labour Party is expected to get at the ballot box this week.

Press reports last week suggested Health Secretary Alan Johnson might be in for a promotion. But government sources show no sign that Brown is about to rearrange the decks just yet.

For a start, it’s not really clear a reshuffle now would sort out the government’s problems. Many of the current Cabinet have such little profile that changing their jobs would hardly excite the public imagination.

Also, the big jobs that might cause a stir are really locked down. Brown isn’t about to remove close ally Alistair Darling from the Treasury — it’d be tantamount to admitting the government bore some of the blame for the economy slowing down. The preferred line is to blame the global credit crunch.

Nor does David Miliband look as if he is going anywhere from the Foreign Office. It wouldn’t make political sense to give the young minister often talked about as a future leader of the Labour Party cause for grievance just when the prime minister’s authority is really under scrutiny.

But Brown still really does need what he calls a “diversion” from all the negative press he’s been getting. His popularity has slumped, the economy is slowing down as house prices fall and his backbenchers are no longer afraid of challenging him on the policy front.

So far his answer has been to say people will back him when they see he’s been taking the right long-term decisions. The economy, he says, will be his main focus.

The problem with that is this is exactly how people remembered him when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer for 10 years. As prime minister, he needs to connect better with voters who are looking for a reason to vote Labour again when the party has already been in office for more than a decade.

Brown doesn’t need to change his Cabinet now, he needs to change the way he communicates.

Should Shakespeare be a factor for Londoners voting for their next mayor on May 1?

The three leading mayoral candidates revealed their knowledge of the Bard on Friday in a live phone-in debate with host Vanessa Feltz on her BBC London morning radio show .

Asked by “David in Finchley” which Shakespearian character best described them, London Mayor Ken Livingstone said he would like to be associated with Julius Caesar .

“Trouble is, I’m sitting next to a couple of Brutuses,” he japed.

Conservative rival Boris Johnson said he hoped to be likened in future to Pericles.

“Pericles, of course, was responsible for the rejuvenation of Athens … and the wonderful thing about the Athenian system was its democracy.

“Everybody had the chance to vote and to decide the future of the policy, as they do on May 1, and that’s why I hope that Londoners in a Periclean way will vote for change for the better,” Johnson said, warming to his theme.

Liberal Democrat ex-policeman Brian Paddick opted out of the contest, protesting he didn’t know enough about Shakespeare to choose a role model. (”Come on,” cried Felz. “You’ve got a degree from Oxford.”)

“Lady Macbeth?”, suggested Livingstone. “Screw your courage to the sticking place, Brian,” said Johnson — an Oxford Classics scholar — quoting the Scottish play .

But it was the candidate without a degree that spotted Johnson’s Shakespearian trickery.

“I think we just caught Boris out,” said Livingstone. “The play Pericles by Shakespeare is not about Pericles, the ancient Greek, is it?”

“I don’t want to disappoint the mayor,” admitted a rueful Johnson. “He’s actually completely right. The Pericles in question is of course Pericles, Prince of Tyre.”

After the broadcast Johnson was unrepentant about his debating dodge, telling me he was just “taking liberties” with the title of the Shakespeare play, about a shipwrecked prince.

“It’s not the same Pericles, but it doesn’t matter. I was just using the name.”

Livingstone was delighted: “I never thought I’d catch Boris out on a classical anything.”

Which Shakespearian characters do you think the candidates most resemble?

Gordon Brown on Wednesday made what the British media and opposition parties widely judged to be the most humiliating and embarrassing policy change of his short career as Prime Minister: a climbdown over concessions to those made worse off by his scrapping of the lowest, 10 pence income tax rate.

Conservative leader David Cameron, hoping to oust Brown and Labour in the next election, branded Brown a “pathetic” figure. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg called him “increasingly pointless”.

Brown, they crowed, was an isolated figure, forced into what the Daily Mail said was a “humiliating U-turn” over tax policies he introduced last year in his final Budget as Finance Minister. Cameron said it was a “massive loss of authority”.

So, is he — and was it?

Undoubtedly, Brown has courted a lot of very bad press over the 10 pence issue. Claims the Labour government have done more than any other this century to help people out of poverty sounded hollow when it became clear that by abolishing a tax band he introduced, Brown was making five million households worse off. The subsequent open rebellion from
Labour backbenchers over the issue just made matters worse.

In the end, however, Brown did — although not admitting a mistake — make changes, stressing he had listened to people’s concerns and acted.

And if Brown can play it right, he may be able to convince voters increasingly turned off Brown and the Labour party that this is the mark of a good leader. “On 10p tax, he listened and acted. That is a sign of strength, not weakness,” the influential Sun newspaper said in an editorial.

Others echoed the line of rebel politician Frank Field, who led the 10p tax revolt, in urging Brown to listen on other unpopular policies. “He can start by scrapping plans to extend
detention without trial to 42 days, a proposal wrong both in principle and practice,” the Daily Mirror said.

If Brown, whom voters view as aloof compared to his populist predecessor Tony Blair, does start to show more of an ability to listen, learn and communicate, however, that may not be enough to silence the low-level chatter that has started to surface about his ability to lead the party into the next election.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband warned Labour at the weekend to stop fighting or it could damage its election chances — a move that raised eyebrows given Miliband is viewed as a possible Brown successor.

Brown has room to reassert his authority. He does not need to hold a general election for another two years, employment remains strong, moves are being made to kick-start the housing market, and the economy is still expected to grow this year.

But first he must weather some major political storms: the biggest work stoppages in a decade, unpopular changes to terror detention laws and local elections on May 1 that will be pored over for evidence of his ability to lead Labour into a fourth successive term in office. No number of visits from George Clooney can help with that.