Reuters Blogs

UK News

Insights from the UK and beyond

October 20th, 2009

Send your questions to Alistair Darling

Posted by: Reuters Staff

darlingDo you have a question you would like to ask Chancellor Alistair Darling? Now is your chance.

At 1:30pm British time on Wednesday, October 21, Reuters is hosting an exclusive Web 2.0 interview with Darling and we want you to send us your questions to put to the top man from the Treasury.

From the crippling global recession to the debate over bankers' bonuses, it has been a tumultuous year at Number 11 Downing Street. You may want to quiz the Chancellor on one of these topics, ask him about the government's plans to prevent another downturn or how Labour plan to defy the polls and win the upcoming general election.

During the interview we will put as many of your questions as possible to the Chancellor and will be running a liveblog of the event, much like we did during this social media interview with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

Leave your question in the comments box below or via Twitter (using #askdarling) and join us on Wednesday for our Web 2.0 interview with the Chancellor.

Click here to view the full live blog
July 8th, 2009

Financial regulation plan: white paper or white flag?

Posted by: Julie Mollins

Chancellor Alistair Darling set out new plans to strengthen regulation of financial markets on Wednesday. The white paper proposes enforcing higher levels of capital for banks and increasing liquidity to prevent a re-run of the credit crunch.

Darling wants banking pay packages to be policed and for a new Council for Financial Stability to bring together the work of the Bank of England, Financial Services Authority and the Treasury.

Although the “tripartite” setup under which the finance ministry, Financial Services Authority and Bank of England supervise the financial markets was widely seen as failing to spot problems at Northern Rock and other banks early enough, Darling has decided not to scrap it.

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne called the Labour plans “more of a white flag than a white paper” in a rebuttal in parliament.

“The next Conservative government will abolish the tripartite system and will put the Bank of England in charge of the banks . . . and other financial institutions because you cannot separate central banking from the financial supervision system,” he said.

What do you think, are the new plans more of a white flag than a white paper? Are the Conservatives on the right track or should the tripartite system be retained?

April 22nd, 2009

Punters cash in on Darling’s budget tie choice

Posted by: Nick Vinocur

Smokers and top earners were clear losers in Britain’s budget this year, as the government hiked taxes on cigarettes and the highest incomes.

 

But a lucky few must have been cheering in front of their televisions during the 51-minute speech.

 

Budget-watchers who bet hard cash that the chancellor of the exchequer, Alistair Darling, would wear a grey or blue tie to his address got a welcome bit of stimulus from the budget.

 

Betting firm Ladbrokes was giving odds of 3/1 and 16/a for a blue and grey, respectively. Perhaps aware of the odds, Darling put on a blue-gray striped one, and Ladbrokes paid out for both colours.

 

“We thought it was blue at first, but as the hour rolled on we decided that, much like the content of the speech, it was in fact grey,” Ladbrokes spokesman David Williams said.

 

The real money came with real risk, howerver. If you wagered 20 pounds that Alistair Darling would let loose with the word “depression” during his speech — many thought it too gloomy to say out loud — the return was a cool 320 pounds.

 

Smaller, but by no means negligible, reutrns were reserved for bets on the words “downturn”, with 4/5 odds, “recovery” at 1/5, and “credit crunch” — still profitable with odds of 3 to 1.

 

There was no mention at all, however, of the one word that drew more bets than all others put together: “sorry”. Odds that Darling would apologise about the state of the economy, always a long shot, narrowed from 20/1 to 4/1 in the run-up to the speech, the betting firm said.

 

And for those who take their thrills wherever they can find them, spread betters were offering an over-under spread of 54.5 to 56 minutes for the length of Darling’s speech.

 

He managed to keep it gonig for 51 minutes this time around, just under a minute longer than last year.

April 22nd, 2009

What did you think of the Budget?

Posted by: Ross Chainey

Chancellor Alistair Darling has made his second annual Budget speech to parliament. Among the measures announced to the House were an increase in petrol duty of 2p per litre in September and a 2 percent increase in alcohol and tobacco duties from tonight.

Darling also announced a scrappage scheme offering £2,000 to people trading in cars older than 10 years for a newer vehicle. From next April there will be a new top tax rate of 50 percent for those earning more than 150,000 pounds a year.

Meanwhile, the annual limit on individual savings accounts has been raised to 10,200 pounds and the Stamp Duty holiday on properties sold for less than 175,000 was extended until the end of the year. There was also money for wind farms and an extra 1 billion pounds to help homeowners and the construction industry.

Darling also forecast that the UK economy will shrink by 3.5 percent in 2009, saying “No country could insulate itself from the world downturn.”

David Cameron, leader of the opposition Conservative party, said: “He is planning to borrow 348 billion pounds over the next two years, that is more — over just two years — than every previous government put together, not just every government since World War Two … but since the Bank of England was first founded more than 300 years ago. This budget does not do enough to bring the public finances under control.”

What did you make of the Chancellor’s Budget speech? Will you benefit from any of the measures? What are your thoughts on the increase in fuel, alcohol and tobacco duties? Do you think the scrappage scheme and new tax rate are a good idea? Finally, do you think it will have a positive effect on the UK economy?

April 22nd, 2009

In for a penny, in for £175 billion

Posted by: Luke Baker

It may not be tax and spend exactly, but it’s definitely tax and borrow.

For the best part of 12 years, Labour has pursued essentially conservative (with a small ‘c’) economic policies, steadily underburdening itself of the ‘fiscally unreliable’ tag that some earlier Labour administrations were (wrongly or rightly) saddled with.

And for most of the past 12 years, as the global economy steadily expanded and Britain’s along with it, with aggregate wealth rising smoothly, Labour looked strong at the helm each time the budget came around.

But since the global economic crisis hit in late 2007,  it has become much harder for the government to keep a tight rein on the fiscal strings as growth has taken a hit, unemployment has risen sharply, and tax receipts have declined. 

Last April’s budget was a tough one for Labour, but Wednesday’s budget may well go down as the one that really showed the government reeling as it tries to keep a grip on the purse strings in some of the most challenging economic circumstances imaginable.

The numbers tell the story and are in some cases eye-bogglingly huge.

Finance minister Alistair Darling says the government will have to borrow 175 billion pounds this year and almost as much next year (173 billion) as it tries to plug a widening gap in its finances. WIth the Debt Management Office already struggling to raise funds (if one recent debt auction is anything to go by), the borrowing requirement could be a very big ask.

At the same time, tax receipts as a proportion of gross domestic product are going to be down, Darling said, and growth is set to contract this year at the fastest rate since World War Two with unemployment edging relentlessly higher.

To try to boost government revenue, Darling has unveiled a new income tax band, although it’s unclear just how much can really be raised from taxing the richest 1-1/2 to 2 percent of the population an ever larger portion of their income.

From next April, those earning more than 150,000 pounds a year will have to pay 50 percent tax, while their benefits allowances will steadily be cut, as they will be for those earning more than 100,000 pounds.

Those new tax policies represent something of a bust for Labour. For 12 years they’ve kept on the right side of business and the wealthy, encouraging entrepreneurship and positioning themselves as a partner with business. But the new top rate of tax suddenly begins to look like a Labour policy of old —  a “tax-the-rich” gambit.

It remains to be seen how the Conservative opposition – now widely expected to win the next election, which has to be called by June 2010 – respond, but on the face of it the high borrowing and higher taxation would seem to play ever more into their hands politically, while threatening them with a dire economic legacy should they win the next election.

For Darling, it may be the best that can be done with an awful hand. Maybe the borrowing can be met, the spending measures announced will have the desired effect, kickstarting economic activity and getting the wheels of commerce turning. Maybe. But it’s a slim chance will little more than a year to go before an election.

Borrowing and taxing may be what’s needed (or the only means available) to try to right the economy in this uncertain time, but it’s unlikely to help Labour’s prospects of holding onto power.

April 21st, 2009

Another bumper Budget?

Posted by: Matt Falloon

All we’ve heard for the past few weeks is how little room there is for Labour to pump more money into the economy to fight the recession.

The increasingly popular — and confident — opposition Conservatives have gained ground by blaming Prime Minister Gordon Brown for turning the public purse into a public hearse.

But there are a few reasons to suspect that when finance minister Alistair Darling steps up to the dispatch box tomorrow, he will deliver another blockbuster life-support package.

Yes, there are inklings of a recovery out there — some experts say we have reached the bottom — but Labour has to make sure this recession is long gone before it can hope to win an election.

And it only has until mid-2010 to wait before that day of reckoning must come.

Brown might be willing to chance his arm with some big spending to reassure the public that job losses will be kept to a minimum and that Labour cares more about ordinary peoples’ lives in the here and now than it does about the budget deficit and government debt markets.

If this is the worst economic crisis for decades, then there is no easy way out of it and the best thing to do is to take whatever action is necessary to bring it to an end and worry about the consequences later.

Respected think tank the National Institute of Economic and Social Research has called for a temporary 30 billion pound stimulus aimed at stuffing employers and employees coffers with
cash.

They say the level of government debt is nowhere near where it was at the end of the Second World War and so there is no real panic about getting it back under control eventually. Yes, it may mean higher taxes and less public spending in the future, but that might be a fair price to pay to avoid mass unemployment and social unrest.

All the indications are that Labour won’t risk the ire of experts and opposition alike with another big stimulus, but the truth is they won’t get a second chance to reduce the severity of the downturn.

Besides all that, something interesting was happening in Westminster on Tuesday.

Rather than hounding the Prime Minister’s office with questions about the Budget, Britain’s press pack were jumping all over an emergency announcement on how rules governing the much-maligned MPs expenses system might be changed.

It wouldn’t be the first time that Brown has put up a smoke screen before delivering a knockout, headline-grabbing blow.

Bumper budgets are a tried and tested vote winner … but that might also be just what the economy needs.

April 21st, 2009

Little room for manoeuvre in budget

Posted by: Gerard Lyons

gerard-3x4

--Gerard Lyons is chief economist at Standard Chartered. The opinions expressed are his own. Lyons will also blog his post-budget thoughts on The Great Debate.--

The outcome of this financial crisis depends on the economic fundamentals, the policy response and confidence. Chancellor Alistair Darling presents this Budget in an environment where the fundamentals are poor, confidence has been shot to pieces and the credibility of policy and his ability to spend any more is being widely questioned.

There are three key areas to focus on in this Budget. First, the Chancellor's economic assessment. Second, his fiscal sums and how he can afford any further help to the economy. Third, his longer-term ambitions, aimed at reducing the budget deficit without killing the recovery whilst winning over the electorate and the markets. It is often said bad things come in threes. On the eve of his Budget, Darling will know that only too well.

First, the economic outlook. The Treasury often views The City's forecasts as being too pessimistic about growth and too optimistic on the budget deficit. This time, the market's growth expectations are terrible, and rightly so. People and companies have cut spending agressively, and the economy looks like it will decline anywhere between 3 percent to 4 percent this year.

Last August, on the eve of the collapse of Lehmans we expected the economy to collapse 2 percent this year. At that time the consensus was expecting growth close to 1percent. Now the market has not only caught up with reality but is erring on the side of caution.

Despite recent talk of green shoots, the economy is still declining. By year-end we may have hit bottom, but in his Budget the Chancellor may have to make clear the recovery, when it comes, will be gradual and drawn out. To be sustained that recovery needs to be built less on debt, borrowing and housing. The problem, of course, is new measures may be announced that do little to ensure a balanced recovery.

Second, the budget numbers. Think of a number, double it, and guess again. Who knows what numbers are being thrown up for the budget deficit by the Treasury's forecasts. A figure around 170 billon pounds is already in the market.

Frivolous spending in the good times led the UK to go into this recession with a large budget deficit. It has since deteriorated as the revenue base has collapsed and government spending risen. If people and firms are not spending, the government has to. If not, the situation will be worse. But this should have been from a position of strength. It wasn't.

Thus the Chancellor has little, if any, room for fiscal manoeuvre. Yet, with the recession deep he will want to do more. Any measures need to be temporary and targeted, and signs are help to construction, housing and the car industry will be announced. All have a political impact and the economic benefit should be clear, helping limit the downside, but at a further fiscal cost.

Third, credibility and confidence. How can the Chancellor ensure the economic and financial reaction is favourable? Well, a realistic read of how bad the present situation is would be a start and then outlining a vision for the future. Whether the electorate believes he has that vision is one thing.

For the markets the Chancellor is, I am afraid to say, in a no-win situation. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't! Last autumn the Chancellor announced future tax hikes. He is being urged to do more of the same. He shouldn't. The best way to reduce the future budget deficit is to slash public spending and to create the environment for sustained economic growth. Given these constraints, how the Budget is received in Threadneedle Street will be important.

There the Bank of England still has the need and the scope for further monetary stimulus. Despite some fears, inflation is not the problem, growth is, which is why the Chancellor wants to do even more in this Budget. If only his predecessor hadn't spent all that money!

April 20th, 2009

What do you want from the Budget?

Posted by: Ross Chainey

With Alistair Darling set to issue the gloomiest budget in a generation, nobody would actually like to be in the Chancellor’s shoes. But put yourself there for a moment and ask yourself, what would your Budget look like?

With a gaping hole in the country’s finances, Darling looks set to admit the economy will shrink at its fastest rate for 60 years. The Budget statement will also come just after new figures are expected to show another 120, 000 signed on for unemployment benefits last month.

Possible measures the Chancellor hopes will return the economy to growth include an increase in individual savings account (Isa) limits, the introduction of a subsidy for trading old motors for low emission cars, changes to the stamp duty threshold and the introduction of a new 45% top-rate income tax band.

What would your Budget include? Which taxes would you cut or raise? How would you help job seekers, homeowners and savers?

April 20th, 2009

A short circuit for electric cars

Posted by: Neil Collins

REUTERS-- Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - Poor old Alistair Darling. The Chancellor is girding himself to deliver a truly ghastly Budget, and lined up a crowd-pleasing headline-grabber to distract attention from the financial horrors ahead.

Then his colleague transport minister Geoff Hoon goes and grabs the headlines for himself, revealing plans to bribe motorists to ditch the gas-guzzler for an electric car.

From 2011, buyers are promised 5,000 pounds towards the cost. Smug drivers pottering along in a subsidised electric car, powered by juice generated from subsidised wind farms, can feel in perfect harmony with nature.

This is an illusion. Carbon dioxide, which is all modern conventional cars emit, is generated by electric cars too, but it's out of sight and out of mind at the power station. In terms of the total energy needed to propel the occupants around, there is no saving from going electric.

There are other snags. Sales of the G-Wiz, a toy car which will still cost 4,000 pounds even with the subsidy, are unlikely to be helped by this*. Drivers will be reluctant to venture far from the comfort of a friendly power point, for fear of being stranded. The exotic metals in the batteries present a sitting target for thieves. If enough people go electric, the concessions like avoidance of parking and road use charges will quickly disappear.

Subsidies distort behaviour, and today's subsidy is tomorrow's tax loophole. Cars use valuable public space, and energy of all kinds is going to get more expensive. If Darling has any strategic sense, he will take advantage of the low oil price to raise the tax on road fuel.

But that wouldn't be popular, would it?

*http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/?bcpid=4464161001&bctid=1655754070
((Edited by David Evans))

April 7th, 2009

Punctured Britain

Posted by: David Milliken

If British chancellor Alistair Darling now occasionally tires of being reminded of his party's erstwhile promise of  "no more boom and bust", he won't thank British accountancy firm Grant Thornton  for sending journalists a bike puncture repair kit.

Billed as "Darling's economic repair kit -- fixes deflation in all business cycles", the marketing gimmick highlights the serious challenge facing Darling as he prepares to deliver his annual budget to parliament on April 22.

Researchers at the non-partisan Institute for Fiscal Studies  say Britain needs to find another 40 billion pounds in savings or higher taxes, equivalent to nearly 3 percent of GDP or £1,200 per family, if it is to balance its budget by the 2015/16 tax year, as Darling promised to do in his October pre-budget report.

IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson, who co-wrote the report, told Reuters MacroScope that Darling would have a tough time politically making convincing promises about future tax rises or cuts to government spending, especially as there's a national election due within little over a year.

But doing so could make it easier for Britain to raise the necessary billions from international debt markets, after a scare last month when the Debt Management Office failed to sell all of a 2049 gilt to investors.

It would also allow more scope to announce a slightly bigger fiscal stimulus package at the budget, said Emmerson -- who rejects the idea that the government should start reining back spending or raising taxes in the recession.

(Reuters photo: Pascal Rossignol)