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May 1st, 2008

The Great Clunking Fist needs to say it better

Posted by: Sumeet Desai

brownportrait.jpgHearing Gordon Brown say he’d made mistakes yesterday almost made me jump. Could the Great Clunking Fist really be admitting he’d got something wrong?

I’ve been covering Brown for more than ten years — both at the Treasury and now at No 10. And in all the interviews, international trips and news conferences I have never heard him say sorry.

He’ll usually quotes a blizzard of figures or just repeat what he said, just more emphatically. He certainly would never concede anyone else could be right.

That was much the case when the whole row over the 10 pence tax row started. Brown wouldn’t accept that his abolition of the lowest tax rate could hit millions of poor people.

Fairly or unfairly he maintained that people losing out from scrapping the 10p rate would benefit from other allowances or tax credits. People would come to understand this was a major tax reform — he also cut the basic rate of tax to 20 pence from 22 pence in the pound. Nor were there too many rebels in his own Labour Party.

That changed last week though when nearly 50 Labour MPs looked ready to vote against the government. The Treasury quickly said it would make some concessions in the form of handouts to anyone losing out.

And then on Wednesday, Brown admitted he had made not just one, but two mistakes. He had not thought about the low-paid who didn’t get a tax credit and there was no help for some of the elderly who don’t get pensioners’ tax allowances.

This appears to be the new listening Gordon. His new strategists — former PR guru Stephen Carter and ad man David Muir — must be telling him he has to emote more.

Labour is taking a pounding in the polls and his own personal ratings have dropped sharply over the last six months.

We saw a bit of this a couple of weeks ago. Instead of crying his usual refrain that no country can insulate itself from the ups and downs of the global economy, Brown said he understood people’s concerns, their worries about their well-being.

On top of that, Brown is probably genuinely wounded by people thinking he was robbing the poor to pay the middle classes. One of his lasting legacies running the Treasury for a decade has been a more redistributive focus to tax policy.

He does care about helping the poor, he is never more passionate than when talking about ending poverty in Africa.

The problem is that he doesn’t do touchy-feely very well. Perhaps the great irony is that Conservative leader David Cameron — a child of privilege, educated at Eton and Oxford — does the bloke-next-door so much better than Brown, son of a stern Scottish clergyman.

Cameron often peppers his conversation with everyday slang and talks about “stuff”. Brown finds it hard to stop himself from talking about economic stability, fiscal rectitude and the long-term challenges facing Britain.

Brown may think he is building a better, fairer Britain. He needs to say it better.

April 24th, 2008

Brown’s tax U-turn: new beginning or beginning of end?

Posted by: Jodie Ginsberg

brown1.jpgGordon Brown on Wednesday made what the British media and opposition parties widely judged to be the most humiliating and embarrassing policy change of his short career as Prime Minister: a climbdown over concessions to those made worse off by his scrapping of the lowest, 10 pence income tax rate.

Conservative leader David Cameron, hoping to oust Brown and Labour in the next election, branded Brown a “pathetic” figure. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg called him “increasingly pointless”.

Brown, they crowed, was an isolated figure, forced into what the Daily Mail said was a “humiliating U-turn” over tax policies he introduced last year in his final Budget as Finance Minister. Cameron said it was a “massive loss of authority”.

So, is he — and was it?

Undoubtedly, Brown has courted a lot of very bad press over the 10 pence issue. Claims the Labour government have done more than any other this century to help people out of poverty sounded hollow when it became clear that by abolishing a tax band he introduced, Brown was making five million households worse off. The subsequent open rebellion from
Labour backbenchers over the issue just made matters worse.

In the end, however, Brown did — although not admitting a mistake — make changes, stressing he had listened to people’s concerns and acted.

And if Brown can play it right, he may be able to convince voters increasingly turned off Brown and the Labour party that this is the mark of a good leader. “On 10p tax, he listened and acted. That is a sign of strength, not weakness,” the influential Sun newspaper said in an editorial.

Others echoed the line of rebel politician Frank Field, who led the 10p tax revolt, in urging Brown to listen on other unpopular policies. “He can start by scrapping plans to extend
detention without trial to 42 days, a proposal wrong both in principle and practice,” the Daily Mirror said.

If Brown, whom voters view as aloof compared to his populist predecessor Tony Blair, does start to show more of an ability to listen, learn and communicate, however, that may not be enough to silence the low-level chatter that has started to surface about his ability to lead the party into the next election.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband warned Labour at the weekend to stop fighting or it could damage its election chances — a move that raised eyebrows given Miliband is viewed as a possible Brown successor.

Brown has room to reassert his authority. He does not need to hold a general election for another two years, employment remains strong, moves are being made to kick-start the housing market, and the economy is still expected to grow this year.

But first he must weather some major political storms: the biggest work stoppages in a decade, unpopular changes to terror detention laws and local elections on May 1 that will be pored over for evidence of his ability to lead Labour into a fourth successive term in office. No number of visits from George Clooney can help with that.

April 22nd, 2008

Tuesday’s headlines

Posted by: Avril Ormsby

mail-pic.jpgHere is a round-up of Tuesday’s headlines:

DAILY MAIL: Father of Four Taken to Court and Fined…Because he Overfilled his Wheelie-Bin by Just Four Inches

Bus driver Gareth Corkhill collected a conviction and a 210 pound fine after he declined to pay a council on-the-spot fine for leaving the lid of his wheelie bin ajar four inches. Story here.

THE TIMES: Judges Set to Deliver Fresh Blow on Terror

Gordon Brown was facing a new battle over key anti-terrorism laws this week with the High Court set to rule against powers to freeze suspects’ bank accounts, the paper said. Story here.

The Sun: Harry Meets His Hero

Prince Harry, who served in Afghanistan, is pictured smiling and relaxing with wounded soldiers recovering in the Forces rehab centre in Surrey. Story here.

The Independent: Can the Bank’s 50bn Pounds Save the Economy?

The newspaper’s Hamish McRae explains in a typical Independent comment-style front page that the Treasury and Bank of England’s line of credit may not be enough to keep the supply of mortgages flowing. Story here.

Daily Express: Miracle Surgery Lets the Blind See

The paper looks at how British doctors carried out pioneering surgery to restore the eyesight of two blind patients. Story here.

The Guardian: You’re Dragging Us to the Edge, Labour Rebels Warned

Gordon Brown moved to stop a potentially damaging backbench budget rebellion with a contrite address to Labour MPs and a promise to hold a review before the autumn on the impact of the abolition of the 10p tax rate. Story here.

The Financial Times: King Rules Out Return to Risky Mortgages

The paper quoted Bank of England governor Mervyn King insisting that the housing market will not see a return to the profligate mortgage lending practices of the past few years while he announced a massive operation to support liquidity in British banks. Story here.

Daily Mirror: Show Some Heart

Chancellor Alistair Darling was going to tell bank chiefs to go easy on families who fall behind with their mortgages, the paper said. Story here.

April 18th, 2008

Brown fights fires at home while on U.S. trip

Posted by: Adrian Croft

brown.jpgFor Gordon Brown on his U.S. trip it has been a case of when the cat is away the mice will play. While Brown was at the White House working to shore up the “special relationship” with President George W. Bush, rebellion broke out in Labour ranks at home.

First, Labour peer Lord Desai launched an extraordinary attack on Brown, telling the Evening Standard: “Gordon Brown was put on earth to remind people how good Tony Blair was.”

Then it emerged that a junior member of Brown’s government, Angela Smith, was threatening to resign over Brown’s abolition of the 10 pence tax rate — a move that many Labour MPs fear will hit the low-paid and hurt Labour in May 1 local elections.

Smith’s on-off resignation was played out in real time on the 24-hour news channels. And just as Brown was about to give a news conference with Bush at the White House, news that Smith had told colleagues she was ready to quit broke.

The threat evidently caused consternation among Brown aides. A resignation of even such a junior minister when Brown was striding the world stage would have been hugely embarrassing.

There was silence from Smith’s office for several hours as, behind the scenes, Brown got on the phone to Smith to persuade her to change her mind. Then Smith issued a statement saying:”Resignation of my post … is not envisaged.”

So have the rumblings of discontent over Brown been blown out of proportion during a quiet news week? Or does it signal that his 10-month-old premiership is in irreversible decline?

When parliament reopens on Monday, Brown faces a revolt among Labour backbenchers over the removal of the 10 pence tax rate and over Brown’s controversial plans to extend the time terrorism suspects may be held from 28 to 42 days.

Brown may be forced to compromise on both issues if he is to avoid a humiliating parliamentary defeat.

More than 60 MPs, many of them Labour, have signed a parliamentary motion urging the government to change the tax system to make sure the low-paid pay less tax.

Brown’s poll numbers are terrible. A Sunday Times poll this week showed the collapse in Brown’s personal popularity ratings was worse even than the drop suffered by Neville Chamberlain after Hitler’s invasion of Norway in 1940.

The Conservatives opened a 16-point gap over Labour in that poll, and worryingly for the government, are now consistently scoring above the 40 percent of the vote mark that could give them a breakthrough at the next general election.

To make matters worse for Brown the credit crunch has tarnished the reputation for economic competence that was his main trump card. A Financial Times poll this week showed Brown was less trusted than any other major western European leader in being able to steer his country through the financial whirlwind.

And Brown can’t seem to buy any luck at the moment. After chafing in Blair’s shadow during a decade of prosperity, the sub-prime crisis broke within months of Brown taking power, bringing down Northern Rock and sowing worries about job losses and falling house prices.

Brown even chose to visit the United States the same week that Pope Benedict was attracting huge crowds there, pushing the little known British leader into the shade.

The slide in their party’s fortunes has unsettled Labour politicians, some of whom are beginning to pine for Blair’s sure touch which won Labour three elections.

Lord Desai said Labour was on track for a “bad result” in the May 1 local elections. If Labour’s Ken Livingstone loses the London mayoral race, “it would be absolutely traumatic for the party,” he said.

Desai was quoted as saying that many senior figures in the party were already thinking about who will succeed Brown. However, most experts dismiss talk of a leadership
challenge any time soon.

Brown can claim some success from his U.S. trip. He appears to have firmed up the initially shaky relationship he struck up with Bush. And he scored an undisputed diplomatic triumph by arranging meetings with all three U.S. presidential candidates.

It was a sign of the importance they place on the U.S. relationship with Britain that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain found space in their busy schedules for strictlyequal, 45-minute meetings with Brown.

Brown must hope he can carry as much weight with his own restive backbenchers.