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October 23rd, 2009

Send your questions to George Osborne

Posted by: Ross Chainey

osborneShadow Chancellor George Osborne will set out the Conservative Party's strategy for rebuilding the UK economy in an exclusive Thomson Reuters Newsmaker at 11 a.m. on Monday, October 26.

We will bring you full coverage of Osborne's speech, including a live video feed and blog, after which we will conduct a short social media interview with him.

We want you to send us your questions to put to him.

This is your chance to grill the man who, according to the latest opinion polls, looks set to inhabit Number 11 Downing Street after the upcoming general election.

Be it on bankers' bonuses, tax havens or the Conservative Party's plans for leading us out of a recession, send us your questions now using the form below or via Twitter using the hashtag #askosborne.

Click here to view the full live blog
October 20th, 2009

Send your questions to Alistair Darling

Posted by: Reuters Staff

darlingDo you have a question you would like to ask Chancellor Alistair Darling? Now is your chance.

At 1:30pm British time on Wednesday, October 21, Reuters is hosting an exclusive Web 2.0 interview with Darling and we want you to send us your questions to put to the top man from the Treasury.

From the crippling global recession to the debate over bankers' bonuses, it has been a tumultuous year at Number 11 Downing Street. You may want to quiz the Chancellor on one of these topics, ask him about the government's plans to prevent another downturn or how Labour plan to defy the polls and win the upcoming general election.

During the interview we will put as many of your questions as possible to the Chancellor and will be running a liveblog of the event, much like we did during this social media interview with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

Leave your question in the comments box below or via Twitter (using #askdarling) and join us on Wednesday for our Web 2.0 interview with the Chancellor.

Click here to view the full live blog
April 22nd, 2009

Apocalypse Now: A return to high borrowing, high taxes and weak growth

Posted by: Gerard Lyons

gerard-3x4

--Gerard Lyons is chief economist at Standard Chartered. Any opinions expressed are his own. --

Britain is clearly a Jekyll and Hyde economy. Or that at least is what the Chancellor would like us to believe. The bad news we are now seeing in the economy, public finances and across parts of the financial sector will not last. We are in the Mr Hyde phase. But, don't worry, we will soon be back to the normal Dr Jekyll soon.

The Chancellor believes the recession will end by year end. That is credible. But then he believes recovery will be rapid, and after contracting 3.5 percent in 2009 we will see growth of 1.25 percent in 2010 and 3.5 percent in 2011. This is fantasy, particularly as this rapid rebound is expected to occur not only as the legacy of the debt bust lingers on, but also as fiscal policy is tightened aggressively through significant tax hikes, largely on those on high incomes.

Strong growth, tax increases and efficiency savings are, the Chancellor believes, about to reduce the budget deficit by half over the next four years. I have my doubts. The legacy of this borrowing binge will live on for much longer.

What we saw confirmed today was the UK was returning to high borrowing, high debt and - in our view - much weaker growth than the Government believes. Add in the higher regulation that is likely to hit, and one wonders how the UK will prosper as the shift in the new world economic order, which is already underway, gathers momentum. As we see a further shift in the balance of economic and financial power from the West to the East, to those economies with low taxes and which save and invest, how will the UK be able to prosper?

There were three areas to focus on in the Chancellor's Budget speech:

The first thing to note was how the Chancellor tried to prepare us for the bad news he was about to deliver. It is not our fault he said. The Chancellor had a number of defences: he had already taken measures to help, the downturn was global, all forecasts had been reduced not just his, and as bad as this recession is, he outlined a relatively quick rebound to strong growth, which in turn would allow government borrowing to fall. Robert Louis Stephenson would have been proud.

One could not argue with the Chancellor's opening paragraphs when he highlighted the shocks that have hit in recent years, and the global nature of the financial and economic crisis. Moreover, he used this as justification for the measures already unveiled, claiming credit for the boost he provided in the Pre-Budget Report at the end of last year. He claimed the total support provided would safeguard half a million jobs. And he announced further measures to help employment today.

These measures are to be welcomed, it is vital to keep youth unemployment to a minimum. But even with this, unemployment will rise sharply, and for some time. Although the Chancellor made the best of a bad job in delivering his Budget nothing could hide the poor underlying foundations on which he built his story. The Chancellor believed the economy's underlying strength, in terms of its diversity, flexibility and resilience would allow it to recovery soon. Yet the economy is not only fragile, it is already cracking under the pressure of the debt overhang.

The second focus was that the economic numbers are too optimistic. But one would not have expected anything different. His forecast of -3.5 percent growth for this year and of a recession ending before the year is out are credible. Confidence is a key factor in any recovery, but one wonders whether those who have cut their discretionary spending will feel the urge to go out and spend? I doubt it. And without a rapid recovery in spending, firms will be reluctant to invest. And if the recovery is weaker, debt levels will be higher, and the pressure to curb public spending aggressively will grow. No sooner had the Chancellor sat down, than the IMF released its new forecast for the UK, of -4.1 percent this year and down -0.4% next. We expect -3.7 percent this year and sluggish growth of 0.4 percent next.

Third, the budget numbers. Six months ago the Chancellor was badly out in his projection of where the budget deficit was heading. That needs to be taken on board when you hear the Chancellor's prediction for the fiscal outlook now. Even during the good times, when the economy's growth was more stable and predictable, the Treasury was often out in its predictions on the budget deficit. It only takes government spending and tax revenues to be out slightly for the budget numbers to be far different from those planned.

Thus the fiscal numbers unveiled should be viewed more as a message of hope, rather than a forecast. The budget deficit, the government believes, will peak at £175 billion this fiscal year, stay around that level at £173 billion next, before heading lower to a still high £97 billion by 2013-14. But as the headline numbers fall, the government's net debt will continue to climb, from a ratio of 55.4 percent of GDP now, to 76.2 percent of GDP by 2013-14. What if growth disappoints?

What if tax revenues are hit harder? Even on the upbeat economic views presented today the Government will have to borrow £703 billion over five years. Financial markets will not be convinced that this Budget will return public finances to a sustainable footing, as the Chancellor hopes it will.

Clearly the likelihood of an election next year, and not just the extent of the recession, had a bearing on the actual measures unveiled The Budget provided a stimulus of £5.2 billion to the economy this fiscal year of 2009-10, followed by a small tax hike of £0.1 billion in 2010-11 and a large tax hike of £5.23 billion in 2011-12, with that claw back set to continue in subsequent years.

At the time of the Pre-Budget Report I referred to it as the Good, the Bad and the Ugly: good that the Chancellor was taking timely, targeted and temporary measures to help the economy; bad that he was not doing it from a position of strength; and ugly being the fiscal position he would leave the country with. Today the picture is even uglier than before.

April 21st, 2009

Little room for manoeuvre in budget

Posted by: Gerard Lyons

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--Gerard Lyons is chief economist at Standard Chartered. The opinions expressed are his own. Lyons will also blog his post-budget thoughts on The Great Debate.--

The outcome of this financial crisis depends on the economic fundamentals, the policy response and confidence. Chancellor Alistair Darling presents this Budget in an environment where the fundamentals are poor, confidence has been shot to pieces and the credibility of policy and his ability to spend any more is being widely questioned.

There are three key areas to focus on in this Budget. First, the Chancellor's economic assessment. Second, his fiscal sums and how he can afford any further help to the economy. Third, his longer-term ambitions, aimed at reducing the budget deficit without killing the recovery whilst winning over the electorate and the markets. It is often said bad things come in threes. On the eve of his Budget, Darling will know that only too well.

First, the economic outlook. The Treasury often views The City's forecasts as being too pessimistic about growth and too optimistic on the budget deficit. This time, the market's growth expectations are terrible, and rightly so. People and companies have cut spending agressively, and the economy looks like it will decline anywhere between 3 percent to 4 percent this year.

Last August, on the eve of the collapse of Lehmans we expected the economy to collapse 2 percent this year. At that time the consensus was expecting growth close to 1percent. Now the market has not only caught up with reality but is erring on the side of caution.

Despite recent talk of green shoots, the economy is still declining. By year-end we may have hit bottom, but in his Budget the Chancellor may have to make clear the recovery, when it comes, will be gradual and drawn out. To be sustained that recovery needs to be built less on debt, borrowing and housing. The problem, of course, is new measures may be announced that do little to ensure a balanced recovery.

Second, the budget numbers. Think of a number, double it, and guess again. Who knows what numbers are being thrown up for the budget deficit by the Treasury's forecasts. A figure around 170 billon pounds is already in the market.

Frivolous spending in the good times led the UK to go into this recession with a large budget deficit. It has since deteriorated as the revenue base has collapsed and government spending risen. If people and firms are not spending, the government has to. If not, the situation will be worse. But this should have been from a position of strength. It wasn't.

Thus the Chancellor has little, if any, room for fiscal manoeuvre. Yet, with the recession deep he will want to do more. Any measures need to be temporary and targeted, and signs are help to construction, housing and the car industry will be announced. All have a political impact and the economic benefit should be clear, helping limit the downside, but at a further fiscal cost.

Third, credibility and confidence. How can the Chancellor ensure the economic and financial reaction is favourable? Well, a realistic read of how bad the present situation is would be a start and then outlining a vision for the future. Whether the electorate believes he has that vision is one thing.

For the markets the Chancellor is, I am afraid to say, in a no-win situation. Damned if he does, damned if he doesn't! Last autumn the Chancellor announced future tax hikes. He is being urged to do more of the same. He shouldn't. The best way to reduce the future budget deficit is to slash public spending and to create the environment for sustained economic growth. Given these constraints, how the Budget is received in Threadneedle Street will be important.

There the Bank of England still has the need and the scope for further monetary stimulus. Despite some fears, inflation is not the problem, growth is, which is why the Chancellor wants to do even more in this Budget. If only his predecessor hadn't spent all that money!

April 20th, 2009

A short circuit for electric cars

Posted by: Neil Collins

REUTERS-- Neil Collins is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own --

LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - Poor old Alistair Darling. The Chancellor is girding himself to deliver a truly ghastly Budget, and lined up a crowd-pleasing headline-grabber to distract attention from the financial horrors ahead.

Then his colleague transport minister Geoff Hoon goes and grabs the headlines for himself, revealing plans to bribe motorists to ditch the gas-guzzler for an electric car.

From 2011, buyers are promised 5,000 pounds towards the cost. Smug drivers pottering along in a subsidised electric car, powered by juice generated from subsidised wind farms, can feel in perfect harmony with nature.

This is an illusion. Carbon dioxide, which is all modern conventional cars emit, is generated by electric cars too, but it's out of sight and out of mind at the power station. In terms of the total energy needed to propel the occupants around, there is no saving from going electric.

There are other snags. Sales of the G-Wiz, a toy car which will still cost 4,000 pounds even with the subsidy, are unlikely to be helped by this*. Drivers will be reluctant to venture far from the comfort of a friendly power point, for fear of being stranded. The exotic metals in the batteries present a sitting target for thieves. If enough people go electric, the concessions like avoidance of parking and road use charges will quickly disappear.

Subsidies distort behaviour, and today's subsidy is tomorrow's tax loophole. Cars use valuable public space, and energy of all kinds is going to get more expensive. If Darling has any strategic sense, he will take advantage of the low oil price to raise the tax on road fuel.

But that wouldn't be popular, would it?

*http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/?bcpid=4464161001&bctid=1655754070
((Edited by David Evans))

October 10th, 2008

You know things are bad when..

Posted by: Guy Dresser
  • You know exactly what the population of Iceland is and can also pronounce the name of its prime minister.
  • Even the word ‘crisis’ seems to have lost its currency.
  • Countries pop up for sale on eBay for 99p and get few offers.
  • Posters on BBC messageboards stop discussing the undulating pitch of Robert Peston’s voice and listen to what he’s actually saying.
  • The speech bubble on Page 3 of the Sun is given over to discussing the credit crisis.
  • Financial market updates displace stories about Jade Goody on the tabloid front pages.
  • Bad news stories from government departments are rushed out day after day and not even the Opposition seems to notice.
  • Estate agents finally admit house prices have fallen but tell you now is a really great time to buy because the market is stabilising.
  • People marketing get-rich-quick property seminars don’t get taken seriously any more.
  • The Chancellor, writing in the Financial Times, says that “now, more than ever, we need new ideas”.
  • Your primary school-aged children know that credit crunch is not a type of biscuit and that IMF isn’t just a fictional organisation in Mission Impossible.
  • You go for a while without noticing one estate agent’s mini and then you see a whole bunch of them on the back of a car transporter.
  • A pensioner on the evening tube train from Canary Wharf gives up her seat to a banker because she reckons he might need it.
  • The Ivy rings to ask if you’d like a table tonight or any night.
  • There are no spare trolleys when you turn up at Aldi to do your weekly shop.

Do you have any better suggestions? All contributions welcome - please send in your selection.

June 16th, 2008

Think pensions to get one up on Chancellor

Posted by: Jennifer Hill

darlingblog1.jpgTax: it’s all getting a bit of a drag. The number of people paying the highest level of income tax has almost doubled since Labour came to power, according to recent statistics.

“Fiscal drag” — a fancy name for failing to uprate tax thresholds and allowances in line with wage inflation — has meant that many hundreds of thousands of middle earners (such as higher-paid teachers, nurses, police officers and many civil servants) have been trapped into paying 40 pence to the Exchequer for every pound on some of their earnings.

Around 3.7 million people are estimated to pay higher-rate tax, up from just over two million in 1997.

That figure, estimates the Institute for Fiscal Studies, will rise to more than 4 million by the end of the current tax year, due to fiscal drag alone. Indeed, the individual taxpayer has borne the brunt of Labour’s tax policies, according to a report by accountancy firm BDO Stoy Hayward released to coincide with “tax freedom day” earlier this month.

Higher-rate tax now starts for many at 41,435 pounds (the personal allowance of 5,435 pounds plus the basic-rate tax band of 36,000 pounds). But with some careful planning those dragged into the higher-rate tax net could save some or all of the extra tax levied by paying money into a private pension — and pave the way for a rosier retirement.

You should always try to make a pension contribution which attracts higher rate tax relief. So, if you’re earning 50,000 pound per annum and make a contribution of no more than 8,565 pounds (50,000 pounds minus the starting point for higher-rate tax of 41,435 pounds), this will attract tax relief at 40 percent — boosting your pension contribution by 3,426 pounds that would otherwise have gone to the tax man.

There are other ways, too, to maximise the amount of pension contributions that receive 40 percent tax relief, says Malcolm Cuthbert, managing director of financial planning at independent financial services group Killik & Co: take into account other sources of earned pensionable income — such as bonuses, redundancy payments (if above the first 30,000 pounds, which is tax free), as well as holiday lets (although not rental income).

Most importantly, do not forget to claim back the entitlement for higher-rate relief annually on your tax return. Although basic-rate relief of 20 percent is paid at source on personal pension contributions, the other 20 percent of higher-rate relief must be reclaimed on your tax return.

“Making your personal finances as tax efficient as possible is a no-brainer that will help ensure your money lasts as long as you do,” says Cuthbert. “One of the smartest ways to achieve this is to claim higher rate tax relief whilst you’re working — and then engineer your affairs so you pay basic rate tax in retirement.” Now, that’s a nice little way of getting one up on the tax man.

June 4th, 2008

Little substance to mortgage lenders “help” for borrowers

Posted by: Jennifer Hill

houses2.jpgThe trade body for the mortgage industry has written to the Chancellor of the Exchequer. In its letter to Alistair Darling, the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) outlines the range of steps that lenders are, apparently, taking to minimise problems borrowers may face in the wake of the credit crunch — and help limit the number of property repossessions. Its members have committed to four “significant specific measures”. These are, in the CML’s own words:

* To analyse their existing arrears management policies and implement any changes identified as a result of the industry guidance which we (the CML) are preparing. The guidance will be informed by the feedback we receive from the FSA (Financial Services Authority) on its thematic work on arrears management. We hope the industry guidance will in due course be confirmed by the FSA, but we are at a very early stage of this process.

* To provide consumer information to borrowers in arrears to help explain the arrears management process, to help borrowers understand what to do and expect, and to set out how their lender will treat them fairly.

* To introduce an appropriately worded pre-action protocol for mortgage cases for use before court proceedings.

* To ensure they have a strategy for contacting borrowers coming out of initial deals, such as two or three year fixed rate periods, to inform them in good time of their new payment and encourage them to make contact if a financial problem is likely to arise.

Despite all the words, there appears to be little substance to these “significant” measures.

As the CML maintains, the number of mortgage arrears cases and repossessions are likely to remain low — and certainly far below the level reached in the housing market crash of the 1990s. Huge increases in house prices in the past few years have meant that, for many, the average loan-to-value is likely to remain low, meaning comparatively few borrowers are facing the prospect of negative equity. Indeed, HSBC unveiled data last month that showed the average mortgage from a stampede of new business represented only 56 percent of the value of the property it was secured against.

That said, some borrowers ARE suffering at the hands of lenders who continue to try to protect their margins and limit bad debts. Across the industry, the maximum amount people can borrow in relation to their property value has plummeted, cheap deals have been replaced with more expensive ones, rules of who can borrow what have been tightened considerably and fees have doubled. The housing market continues to be choked by the lack of mortgage availability, particularly for first-time buyers and those with little in the way of deposit.

At the same time, a two-tier system is emerging whereby the best deals are only available to homeowners dealing directly with lenders — not through intermediaries that generally charge lenders commission. That is effectively making bypassing independent brokers, who help consumers search the entire market for the best deal for their circumstances, uneconomical. Surely, that can’t be right?

May 1st, 2008

Dear Chancellor… What would be in your letter to Darling?

Posted by: Jennifer Hill

darling.jpgLabour might appear to have calmed the storm over the scrapping of the 10 percent income tax rate for now. But new research shows the extent to which Britons are peeved about the level of income tax.

When asked what would be their key requests of Chancellor Alistair Darling, the largest proportion of more than 3,000 people polled for Unbiased.co.uk — 31 percent — said they’d like to see a cut in income tax. And, it seems, many Britons feel an obligation to help the less well-heeled: while 12 percent would like to see it reduced for everyone, 19 percent want a cut for less affluent sections of society.

The issue was, perhaps unsurprisingly, found to be the most pressing for younger generations — those with long working lives and greater earning potential ahead of them. Around 44 percent of 18 to 24-year-olds surveyed want a cut, compared to 19 percent of 55 to 64-year-olds and 13 percent of those aged 65 to 74.

But the requests do not stop there: almost a quarter would ask the Chancellor to provide a better level of state pension, 6 percent want increased pay for public sector workers, 5 percent increased support for carers, the same percentage an increase in the inheritance tax threshold to 750,000 pounds (from a current 312,000 pounds), and 2 percent want the stamp duty thresholds to be reviewed.

Others would implore the Chancellor to reconsider public spending: 5 percent want funding for the third generation of nuclear deterrent to be scrapped, 4 percent call for a four billion pound cap on the Olympic budget; and the same proportion want more spending on environmental issues.

It’s easy to see why: soaring house prices have pushed more people into the inheritance tax net and sent stamp duty bills soaring, “fiscal drag” — whereby thresholds fail to rise in line with inflation — is pulling people into new and higher tax brackets, and interest in “green” issues is on an upward trend.

But don’t forget that there are simple things we can all do to keep the taxman’s hands off our cash. The nation is wasting a whopping 9.3 billion pounds in unnecessary tax payments — from the likes of people not making use of their individual savings account allowance (a total 7,200 pounds this year, of which 3,600 pounds can be stashed in cash), wasting tax credits and not taking steps to reduce their taxable estate for inheritance tax purposes.

April 23rd, 2008

Wednesday’s front pages

Posted by: Avril Ormsby

indycut2.jpgThe crucial poll win in Pennsylvania by US presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton came too late for many newspapers, who predominantly went instead with rising food prices and fears for a missing boy in Wednesday’s headlines.

THE INDEPENDENT: The Chilling Message From Zimbabwe’s Church Leaders

The paper runs a dramatic quote in red and black letters which says: “If nothing is done to help the people of Zimbabwe, we shall soon be witnessing genocide similar to that in Kenya and Rwanda.” Story here.

DAILY MIRROR: The Lost Boy

Fears were mounting for a vanished disabled boy whose devoted mother was found dead in woods near her home in Worcester. Story here.

DAILY MAIL: The Petrol “Profiteers”

Consumer groups accused petrol firms of profiteering after raising prices by up to 5p a litre in 48 hours, ahead of a planned strike at Grangemouth refinery, the paper said. Story here.

THE GUARDIAN: 1bln Pounds Package Would End Tax Row, Say Rebels

Frank Field, the architect of Labour’s 10p tax rebellion, said ministers must provide up to 1bln pounds in compensation for those affected by the changes before local elections next week, if they are to defuse the row, the paper said. But he insisted he did not want to bring the government to its knees. Story here.

DAILY EXPRESS: Shopping Bill Up 15 Pounds a Week

Soaring food costs are adding 15 pounds a week to supermarket shopping bills, research showed, in the latest hammer blow to hard-pressed family budgets, the paper said. Story here.

THE SUN: Wills Gets Chopper Out at Sandringham

The paper claims an exclusive on Prince William, who recently received his flying wings, taking another joyride in an RAF helicopter — this time over the Queen’s Sandringham home. The paper had earlier said he had landed a helicopter in the garden of his girlfriend. Story here.

THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: 800 Pounds-a-Year Rise in Family Grocery Bill

The paper used the same research on food prices to say families are having to spend almost 800 pounds more on their annual grocery bills as the highest rate of food inflation for a generation drives up supermarket prices. Story here.

THE TIMES: Era of Cheap Food Ends as Prices Surge

Experts warn the prices of basic foods will rise steeply again because of acute shortages in commodity markets, the paper said. Story here.

THE FINANCIAL TIMES: RBS Chief Faces Calls to Name Exit Date

Sir Fred Goodwin faces demands from leading investors to step down as chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland within a year after the bank launched a 12 bln pounds rights issue, the paper said. Story here.