UK News
Insights from the UK and beyond
from Breakingviews:
Boris Johnson intervention reduces Brexit chances
By Hugo Dixon
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own
Boris Johnson's intervention in the European debate reduces the chance of a British exit from the European Union - or Brexit. The Mayor of London, a popular Conservative politician, says he will campaign to keep Britain in the EU provided it can negotiate a pared-down relationship based on the single market.
Johnson, who is a darling of the UK's largely eurosceptic Tory press, has not previously pinned his colours to the mast. Indeed, some thought he would be in favour of pulling Britain out of the EU. But he is concerned that London and the UK would lose out if Britain left the EU and, as such, had no say in setting the rules of the single market.
So the mayor wants to negotiate a new arrangement which would involve, among other things, scrapping social chapter provisions and the common fisheries policy. The result would then be put to a referendum, in which the question would be: "Do you want to stay in the EU single market: yes or no?" Johnson would advocate "yes", he told a Thomson Reuters Newsmaker event on Dec. 4, which I moderated.
from Breakingviews:
The real UK plan B: protecting against euro chaos
By Hugo Dixon and George Hay
The authors are Reuters Breakingviews columnists. The opinions expressed are their own.
Pundits say Britain needs a plan B to boost growth. What it really needs is a contingency scheme to handle a euro explosion. The central planks should be for the government to keep adequate fiscal firepower in reserve to handle a crisis and to shore up the country’s banks.
from Breakingviews:
Becalmed UK in danger of double dip
By Ian Campbell
The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.
The UK economy looks dangerously becalmed. While GDP did increase a good-looking 0.5 percent in the third quarter, the number was flattered by a catch up from a royal wedding-distracted spring. Besides, there has only been a 0.5 percent rise over the full year. And now a euro zone storm is brewing. That Tuesday's UK manufacturing survey for October dropped to the lowest level for over two years is no coincidence -- but is alarming.
from Breakingviews:
UK will get QE2 – but may need fiscal help too
The odds are moving rapidly towards a launch of QE2 in the UK. A second bout of quantitative easing - printing money - would be controversial. But a fragile economy needs extreme treatment - monetarily, and probably fiscally, too.
Britain's substantial home-grown problems are being exacerbated by crisis in the euro zone. UK unemployment crossed 2.5 million in the three months to July. Activity in services, the bulk of the economy, almost contracted in August. Wages, up just 1.7 percent in the past year, are falling fast in real terms, impoverishing consumers and threatening deflation. And exports are stalling: the euro zone is the UK's main trade partner.
Ignore the data, Royal Wedding and sunshine give Britain Plc a Q2 kickstart
A lot of the economic data in recent days has made for pretty grim reading, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will remain at record lows for some months yet.
But a string of bullish updates from British retailers and manufacturers suggest that the second quarter could have got off to a flying start, with fine weather, the Easter holiday and the Royal Wedding all improving the national mood.
from The Great Debate UK:
Waiting for the other shoe to drop
-Laurence Copeland is professor of finance at Cardiff University Business School. The opinions expressed are his own and do not constitute investment advice. -
The unemployed and the terminal insomniacs who have nothing better to do than read my blogs will know that I have long been gloomy about most of the Western economies. How can you fail to be pessimistic when the world economy is still dominated by the U.S. - a basket case, becoming weaker every day, with a political class too blind or too scared to admit in public the obvious fact that the country cannot carry on living beyond its means?
from MacroScope:
How uncertain exactly is the uncertain BoE?
For a central bank that looks certain to bust its 2 percent inflation target for most of the time between now and the London 2012 Olympics, there is still a lot of uncertainty out there.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King referred to "uncertain" or "uncertainty" about the outlook five times at the May quarterly Inflation Report press conference according to the bank's transcript, and the latest one didn't seem much more confident in tone.
from The Great Debate UK:
Sluggish U.S. economy may threaten UK business development
- Paddy Earnshaw is the Director of Customer Relations at Travelex Global Business Payments. The opinions expressed are his own.-
British importers and exporters’ confidence in the economy leapt in July, as positive economic data fuelled hopes for a return to strong economic growth. According to the Travelex Confidence Index (TCI), which jumped 12 points in July to 116, from 104 in June, strong gains were driven by quarter 2's GDP figure, as it showed the UK grew at its fastest pace in four years.
from The Great Debate UK:
Rubbish rates – what is a saver to do?
-Rachel Mason is PR manager at Fair Investment Company. The opinions expressed are her own.-
The base rate is going to be stuck at 0.5 percent for years to come, according to experts, so where does that leave savers?
from The Great Debate UK:
EU stress tests: for banks or governments?
- Laurence Copeland is a professor of finance at Cardiff Business School. The opinions expressed are his own.-
Worries about Europe’s banking system go back at least to 2007, but whereas the U.S. (and UK) banks appear to have weathered the storm, there are fears that for European banks the worst may lie ahead. Concerns centre on four areas.
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The Wall
