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November 5th, 2009

When firms “Too Big to Fail” fall

Posted by: Julie Mollins

Amid the turmoil of the 2008 financial crisis a myriad of events unfolded that the general public knew nothing about, writes New York Times reporter Andrew Ross Sorkin in a new book titled "Too Big to Fail."

Wall Street fell from the dizzying heights of good fortune to calamity in a matter of months. To a large degree it's still to early to tell whether financiers and politicians involved made the right choices.

"At its core 'Too Big to Fail' is a chronicle of failure -- a failure that brought the world to its knees and raised questions about the very nature of capitalism," writes Sorkin in his behind-the-scenes account.

He spoke with Reuters before giving a lecture at the London School of Economics on Thursday.

November 5th, 2009

Bank hedges bets with QE expansion

Posted by: David Milliken

BRITAIN-BANK/RATESWhen the Bank of England decided to expand its quantitative easing policy by 25 billion pounds to 200 billion on Thursday, it was essentially hedging its bets.

After Britain's economy shrank unexpectedly in the third quarter, and with two thirds of the City expecting an expansion to the QE programme, simply shutting off the tap of government bond purchases would risk being more of a shock than the economy could bear.

On the other hand, the Bank clearly believes that the worst is over for the economy and that recovery will come soon -- even if it's going to be weak.

Thursday's decision means the central bank will keep buying government debt until February, but at only half the pace of before. This still amounts to around 2 billion pounds a week, not including the much smaller sums of corporate debt that the Bank is buying.

What the decision means for a typical household is harder to calculate. The Bank says that its quantitative easing programme has raised the price of government and corporate
bonds, making borrowing cheaper.

But for average firms and consumers looking for a loan, the benefit is harder to spot.

There is little clear evidence that banks are much more willing to lend than a few months ago -- though the Bank would argue that quantitative easing has been instrumental in avoiding the recession turning into a depression.

In the longer term, the big unknown is the impact that quantitative easing will have on inflation. Sterling's weakness against the dollar and the euro will push inflation up in the short term, and going forward the Bank of England said it faced a balancing act.

While rising unemployment and half-full shops and factories will keep a lid on prices, policymakers know that quantitative easing could exert upward pressure on demand and prices for months if not years after it has stopped.

That's why they took the decision today which could mark the gradual phasing out of this unprecedented policy of asset purchases.

November 3rd, 2009

Why is the UK still in recession when the U.S. isn’t?

Posted by: Julie Mollins

Recent U.S.  gross domestic product data show the world's biggest economy emerged from recession in the third quarter, while in the UK data show that in the same period Britain's economy contracted.

British economist and author John Kay theorizes that Britain is mired in its worst recession on record in part because government support has not been evenly distributed across sectors.

"We've poured money into the financial sector -- by and large the financial sector in Britain is doing OK," he said.  "But very little of that is getting through to small and medium-size businesses out there in the rest of the economy."

October 27th, 2009

Can emissions be tackled without Copenhagen deal?

Posted by: Julie Mollins

Mike HulmeEven if a deal is reached among political delegates at the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference in Copenhagen, it is unlikely to set out specific emission targets, says Mike Hulme, author of "Why We Disagree About Climate Change" and a professor at the University of East Anglia in Norwich.

"What we've done with climate change is to attach so many pressing environmental concerns to the climate change agenda that trying to secure a negotiated multilateral agreement between 190 nations is actually beyond the reach of what we can achieve," he argues.

Hulme, who will take part in a debate hosted by the Institute of Economic Affairs in November about carbon emission policies and economic activity before he heads to the Copenhagen conference, discussed his views with Reuters.

October 23rd, 2009

Global FTSE 100 shrugs off parochial UK GDP data

Posted by: Simon Falush

Britain's FTSE 100 seems to be almost impervious to any bad data that can be thrown at it. GDP data shocked the market showing the UK unexpectedly contracted in the third quarter.

Sterling tumbled more than a cent against the greenbackand gilts jumped while the FTSEurofirst 300 pan-European equity index trimmed gains considerably.

But Britain's FTSE shrugged it off, hugging its 1 percent gains in the face of data which shows the UK economy is still ailing badly.

 It is the cosmopolitan nature of the FTSE which is keeping it buoyant. Miners and energy firms make up over 32 percent of the index, while miners banks, also very much global institutions make up a further 16 percent.

Howard Wheeldon on BGC Partners says:

"The FTSE is a function of globalalisation and trading conditions and growth elsewhere in the world have more of an impact than domestic growth. If the global recession is over and demand is picking up internationally, it's all the more reason to close your eyes to
what's going on in the tiny island that it happens to be registered in."

October 8th, 2009

Clouds of change: Buzzwords from conference season

Posted by: Ross Chainey

dave1Opposition leader David Cameron has delivered his speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester.

Cameron told delegates there would be “painful” cuts in public spending, promised to send more troops to Afghanistan and stressed the importance of confronting “Labour’s debt crisis.” He also pledged to modernise the pension system, “break the cycle of welfare dependency” and cut back on bureaucracy to make life easier for entrepreneurs.

Cameron’s speech brings conference season to an end. Leaders of the three main parties — Cameron, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats — have all laid out their plans for Britain ahead of a general election due by June 2010.

The ‘word clouds’ below have been generated using the complete texts from each of the leaders’ keynote conference speeches, in the order they were given. At first glance there are some striking similarities and fascinating overlaps — but we will leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.

How did you think each of the leaders performed? Who did you find the most convincing? Is David Cameron ready to lead the country?

Keywords from Nick Clegg’s speech:

cleggwordcloud2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keywords from Gordon Brown’s speech:

brownwordcloud3

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Keywords from David Cameron’s speech:

cameronwordcloud

October 6th, 2009

Live webchat: Expert mortgage advice

Posted by: Reuters Staff

October 1st, 2009

BAE, the SFO and time travel

Posted by: Jason Neely

rtxp5uiProsecute over bribes allegedly paid in far-flung lands years before you banned such practices?

That’s the bluff from Britain’s Serious Fraud Office and its biggest defence firm, BAE Systems, is having none of it.

The Lockheed scandal of the 1970s forced the United States to toughen its anti-bribery laws but the British quietly left their laws wide open for decades.

It worked a treat.

UK firms enjoyed a competitive advantage over U.S. rivals and were able to do battle in arms exports versus freewheeling rivals from France, Germany, Russia and beyond.

BAE is now Europe’s biggest defence company and has even cracked the Top 10 in sales to the Pentagon.

Britain’s economy has profited too, especially from the Al Yamamah arms-for-oil export pact with Saudi Arabia – at an estimated 43 billion pounds ($69 billion) by far the country’s biggest ever export deal.

Remember it? It’s the one the Serious Fraud Office probed until late 2006 when then Prime Minister Tony Blair, under pressure from the Saudis and citing national security, quashed it.

Turning a blind eye is sometimes hard, but a 43 billion pound eye patch does wonders.

The Serious Fraud Office has been smarting ever since.

So it is back, mounting a stand, hoping to reassert its authority with a case involving BAE and far smaller defence deals done in South Africa, the Czech Republic and Tanzania.

It’s true, regulation is back in vogue, with politicians busy talking the world back out of recession and vowing tougher rules to avert another financial meltdown.

Little about how they all missed this crisis, but a lot on the great ideas they have for spotting it next time.

The Serious Fraud Office’s sleight-of-hand is even more breathtaking.

They want time travel — to use today’s laws to prosecute yesterday’s crimes.

Can they be serious?

September 30th, 2009

Roger Bootle throws capitalism a life preserver

Posted by: Julie Mollins

Problems sparked by the financial crisis have not gone away, but have been transferred to the public sector, economist Roger Bootle posits in his new book.

In “The Trouble With Markets: Saving Capitalism from Itself” Bootle argues that in large measure, the underlying cause of the financial crisis was the result of an idea that markets work, and that governments do not.

“Despite the trillions of dollars lost, and despite the worries of millions of people, more than this — much, much more — is at stake,” Bootle writes. “For this crisis has delivered the killer blow to an idea that has underpinned the structure of society, framed the political debate, and moulded international relations for decades.”

Bootle, director of Capital Economics and an economic advisor to business accountancy firm Deloitte, reflects on the pitfalls of the corporate system and puts forth his ideas on the future of capitalism.

He discussed his book and his economic predictions with Reuters at his London office.

September 25th, 2009

Instant View Video: Rebalancing global trade

Posted by: Adam Pasick

Reuters correspondent Sumeet Desai talks about the G20 draft communique and what it means for rebalancing the world's economy.