If the message on the streets up here in northern England is anything to go by, Labour will be sent packing at the next election.

Yes, it was just a by-election. Yes, Labour is suffering from severe mid-term blues. But the swing was a massive 17.6 percent and it wasn’t the Liberal Democrats who gained from Labour’s troubles, as is traditional in by-elections.

From speaking to people on the ground, the Labour vote has collapsed and the Tories are out in force. When pensioners who’ve voted Labour all their lives switch to the Conservatives, it’s time for Labour to worry.

Rising living costs and the perception that Labour has encouraged a benefits culture that is bleeding taxpayers dry were high on voters’ grudge list. Then there was the 10 pence tax ”fiasco” as one called it, or Labour’s “cynical, condescending” campaign against Tory toffs, as another said. 

Overwhelmingly, though, there was a sense that people had just had enough. That Labour had had 11 years and what had they done with it?

On top of that, there was a whiff of victory that pervaded the Conservatives’ campaign and got many apathetic Tories or people who had never voted before out in support for Edward Timpson.

David Cameron just needs to maintain the sense that the Conservatives are on track to win and he could see thousands more floating voters jumping on his bandwagon.

Margarete Cernigliaro, 55, said it was the impression that her vote actually counted that prompted her to go to the polling station on Thursday. She is a self-confessed ”lazy voter” who supports the Conservatives but didn’t think it was worth bothering in the last general election.

She told how her six-year-old grandson had met his six-year-old friend on Thursday on route to the polling station with his family. “Let’s vote for the winners,” said one six-year-old to another, referring to Timpson & co.

Even diehard Labour voters think their party has lost the next election. Jeremy Vernon, a 45-year-old teacher, voted Labour as always on Thursday, but rather reluctantly.

“I think it is a national problem. It’s the Gordon Brown problem,” he said and went on to accuse the government of “cooking the books” over inflation, given the huge rises in petrol and basic food items. Asked if Labour could win the next election, he said: ”I think they’ll lose it, definitely.” 

David Cameron may find that looking like a winner between now and the next election will be enough to turn him into one. 

The Times says Gordon Brown is facing the first electoral test of his premiership. It also features London mayoral candidates Ken Livingstone and Boris Johnson. Story here

The Daily Mail leads with how motorists are being fleeced by speed cameras or traffic wardens to the annual sum of £800m. Story here

The Daily Mirror leads with an artists impression of what Elisabeth Fritzl might look like now at the age of 42. Story here

The Daily Telegraph says 150 hostels, intended to house offenders, have been built in residential areas across the UK with little or no consultation with locals. Story here

The search is on for the last Nazis accused of terrible war crimes, according to The Independent. Story here

The Daily Express says the cost of living for the average family has gone up by 11.5% in the past year (story here) and also features a picture on its front page of Josef Fritzl on a beach holiday while his children were locked in his cellar in Austria.

The Guardian says police will reject toughter action on cannabis possession when the drug is upgraded to class B. Story here

** For full coverage of the mayoral election go to our special report **

Safer streets, better housing, more reliable transport….that’s what Ken Livingstone, Boris Johnson and Brian Paddick all want for London and it’s probably what most Londoners want for their city. But what’s the big difference then between “Red Ken”, “Crazy Boris” and …”Policeman turned Politician” Brian Paddick?

That’s still hard to fathom two weeks ahead of the May 1 London mayor election. But there was an air of tetchiness and getting personal during a Reuters Newsmaker debate at Reuters headquarters in London in front of an invited audience of around 250 people.

Liberal Democrat candidate Paddick told Livingstone he had “lost the plot” during his second term.

Ken “vote for me, I’m worth it” Livingstone hit out at Conservative candidate Johnson saying among the hardest decisions he ever had to take was to decide where to go for lunch with his former staff at “The Spectator” while he was editor of the right-wing magazine.

Johnson himself lashed out at the mayor for being inconsistent in his policies (”he wants millions of Chinese to come to London as tourists but is against a third runway at Heathrow” he said of Ken) and for “overpaying” his officials at City Hall. Ken himself was candid about what type of tourist he wants - the ones who spend the most money….not the Belgians…who according to him spend the least.

Under pressure from a lack of experience in managing large teams and projects, Johnson broke new ground (for himself) by finally announcing one person to join his ranks - Bob Diamond, the U.S.-born president of Barclays will join his team of advisors.

“I’m for taxpayer value” the Conservative candidate extolled, having collected the largest number of laughs for his customary one-liners…such as a commitment to keep funding the European Space Agency so he could send the (incumbent) mayor into orbit.

A business-like Livingstone weighed in with his eight-year track record as mayor, the safest pair of hands to run the capital’s 11.3 billion pound budget. Conscious of his audience of business professionals he stressed how he injected new life into the City of London, which apparently had been in decline when he took office.

“Slightly less regulation than our competitors” was his blueprint for future success of London as a financial centre.

Another one of Ken’s big themes for the next term, apart from the 2012 London Olympics, is the Crossrail, the much-delayed high-speed train linking east and west London, most importantly giving City workers quick access to Heathrow airport. There were a few gasps in the audience though when he prided himself on having improved London’s transport system…better than ever in his eyes but a source of frequent frustrations for most Londoners.

There was even a rare flicker of passion from earnest Paddick, when he was tackled by a member of the audience about his light-touch approach to drugs in south London when he was police chief - a policy, he said, he had pioneered in Brixton because that was what the “community” wanted and which had led to more arrests for drug dealing.

But as so often Paddick, struggling way off in third place in opinion polls, spent most of his time extolling his virtues as the man who will “listen and understand” and be “capable and competent”.

A straw poll on voting intentions among the audience saw Johnson, who is neck and neck with Livingston in real opinion polls, leading by a small margin. But, perhaps unsurprisingly, the majority didn’t raise their hands at all - still unsure on who should be leading London in the future?

Just in case you’re not sure….here’s a five-word primer for what they stand for …in the candidates’ own words at today’s Newsmaker:

- Paddick: listen, understand, act, capable and competent
- Johnson: change, democracy, safety, taxpayer value
- Livingstone (in 7 words): vote for me I’m worth it

** For full coverage of the mayoral election go to our special report **

Sitting at the Evening Standard’s London Mayor debate last night, it occurred to me how cosy this election is. Whoever wins the contest on May 1 will lead one of the world’s most high-profile cities with an 11.3 billion pound budget to run public transport, police and fire services and promote the economy of this global financial centre. Yet at times the candidates seem to think they are engaging in some kind of school debating contest.

First there was breathless Boris, who bounded up to the podium like a precocious teenager and raced through his speech to cram in as much as possible during his allotted eight minutes. Then a more nervous, and far less exuberant delivery from the class swot — Brian Paddick — the former policeman turned Lib Dem mayoral candidate, who delivered a serious and earnest “Why I should be head boy” speech.

Throughout Paddick’s speech, Boris and Ken whispered to each other on the podium as if they thought they were at the back at the class and couldn’t be seen. Boris could barely contain his glee when Paddick slipped up in his bid to assert his desirability over a candidate (Johnson) who spends his time at the “Henry” regatta. His conflation of Henley with the Hooray Henries associated with Johnson’s consituency prompted a barely disguised giggle from Boris and his supporters.

Then came Ken, who looked a little beyond the city’s borders to place London in its global context: “The things we do in the city set the agenda for the world,” he told the audience of “influentials” in west London’s Cadogan Hall.

But still, it was difficult to shake the sense that this election contest is more village hall than City Hall. Questions and answers centred around the congestion charge, beat police officers, free travel passes for the under-16s and preserving gardens. It was only at the end that we got a real sense of the scope of this newly created role when columnist Simon Jenkins asked what vision the candidates had for the city. The answer seems to be not too many skyscrapers but well-designed ones are OK. The future of London as a world financial centre seemed less clear.

*For all the latest Reuters news, analysis, pictures and blogs from the campaign trail, visit our special London elections site*

The battle for London Mayor has moved 250 miles north to Gateshead, where Tory contender Boris Johnson has been sticking his rhetorical boot into the Labour incumbent.

Johnson won laughs and applause from party activists at the Conservative Spring Conference as he eased his political stiletto between Ken Livingstone’s ribs.

He was merely repaying the compliment after Labour dedicated an afternoon to bashing Boris at their spring conference in Birmingham two weeks ago.

But while Labour Minister Hazel Blears called Johnson a “nasty, right-wing elitist, with odious views and criminal friends”, Boris opted for a more subtle approach.

“I know I am facing one of the wiliest and most redoubtable opponents in British politics … a man equipped as if by millennia of evolution with a prehensile tail with which to cling to office,” he told his appreciative audience.

“He has said some wise things. For instance, he said that only a ghastly dehumanised moron would get rid of the Routemaster bus, a point he then proved by getting rid of them himself.

“Just as the dinosaurs finally ceded dominion of the earth after their interminable epoch, so it is dawning on us that Ken Livingstone is visibly being transformed into “Ken Leaving-Soon” and the great Newtosaurus Rex has finally had its day.”

The mutual exchange of invective shows how the political temperature is rising ahead of the May 1 election, with the two contenders neck and neck in the polls.

The contest is already being seen as a proxy for the next general election - due by 2010 but potentially coming as soon as summer next year.

Johnson says it would be “momentous” if Labour loses the London Mayoral race.

You can see Johnson telling me why he is standing for Mayor here, and explaining why Boring Boris and Old Boris are two sides of the same coin here.

Boris Johnson talks to Tim Castle at the Conservative Spring Conference in Gateshead.

The Tory candidate for London Mayor says he will give it 100 percent should he become mayor and focus on making the capital safer because “it’s central to making a wonderful city yet more wonderful.”

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Boris Johnson talks to Tim Castle at the Conservative Spring Conference in Gateshead about why he is running for London Mayor.

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