In Crewe and Nantwich voters were palpably enthused by the prospect of giving Gordon Brown and Labour a good kicking. They were aware of the national significance of a Tory victory and relished the chance to send Brown a stern message. Turnout was a high 58 percent and the Conservatives achieved a massive 17.6 percent swing to win the seat in May.

A walk around the housing estates and shabby shopping complexes of Glasgow East tells a different story. Many locals frown and scurry off when asked their political views. Others who do stop and talk express indifference. The by-election may be a two-horse race between Labour and the Scottish National Party (SNP) but apathy is running a close third. Turnout here was less than 50 percent in the 2005 general election and is expected to be much lower next week, particularly because of summer school holidays.

But Labour is braced for a thrashing and a drastically reduced majority. Lifelong Labour supporters said they were switching to the SNP or even to the Conservatives, who barely make it on to the political map in Scotland. Diehard Labour loyalists — people who vote for Labour because their mother, father and grandparents did — may just help Brown hold on to the seat but Labour appears to be losing the support amongst the working class that it has relied on in Scotland for decades.

Take Scottish pensioners Sarah Carlin and Catherine Matheson. They have voted for the Labour Party since they can remember but both said they plan to switch allegiances next Thursday. Carlin, 64, may vote Conservative, if she votes at all, while Matheson will plump for the SNP.

“I’ve worked all my days and I don’t get anything. I pay for my glasses, I pay for my teeth. I’m going to try the Conservatives. I’m sick of it,” said Carlin, having tea after an exercise class at the Tollcross Park Leisure Centre in Glasgow’s deprived east end.

Other “eastenders” have lost faith in politicians, worn down by what they see as a failure to tackle the crime and drug addiction that plagues the sprawling constituency.

Michael McGonigle, who owns a butcher’s shop in the east end, said the area has got worse over the years, beset by drug addicts and dealers.

“I’m not voting. I don’t believe in any of them. They’re all in it for themselves,” said McGonigle, 38, as he sliced beef in his store on Tollcross Road. “You see them day and night, druggies, methodone junkies.”

A few doors down, Stephen Mclellan, 37, who owns his own grocery store, is similar disillusioned.

“Nothing gets done. They just promise. I’d like something to be done locally,” he said, pointing at the drains outside his shop that he said flood every time it rains or the boarded up flats opposite. “There are too many people on methodone. They sell it at the bus stop, there is no support. Put police on the streets and the place would be ten times better,” added McGonigle, who is unsure who he will vote for, if anyone.

Politically-engaged locals agreed that Labour could have lost here if Margaret Curran hadn’t agreed to stand. She is a local political heavyweight and an energetic campaigner. Local taxi driver Robert Kemp, 54, thinks “a gun was put to her head. They needed a big hitter, so they said, Margaret, come and save our position.”

Others said that if the charismatic Alex Salmond had been standing, rather than the lesser-known John Mason, the SNP could have pulled it off — a result that would certainly have sent shockwaves all the way to Downing Street and could have sealed the prime minister’s fate.

(photo shows Scottish Labour Party candidate Curran campaigning in Glasgow)

But others say this was a vote against Labour rather than a vote for the Conservatives and that governments, especially those that have been in power for as long as Labour, always take a knock in local elections. Look at Tony Blair in 2004 just a year before he swept home again.

The next general election doesn’t have to be called until 2010 and even a week is a long time in politics, they point out.

Do you think the writing is on the wall for Brown, or can Labour win a fourth term in the next general election?

The election results for England and Wales at 8:00 p.m. with all 159 councils having officially declared.

	Councillors		Councils
Party	Won/lost	Total	Won/Lost	Total
Conservative	+256	3154	+12	65
Labour	-331	2368	-9	18
LibDem	+34	1805	1	12
Plaid Cymru	+33	207	-1	0
Other	5	893	0	0
NOC	-	-	-3	64
Councils declared out of 159 total			159

Source: BBC

“What we have to avoid is a situation where people think this election is a joke and that the future of London is not serious,” Olympics Minister Tessa Jowell told Sky News.

If this is all about taking the upcoming election seriously though, why has there been no similar decree regarding “Ken” (Livingstone), the equally maverick Labour candidate? And what will Labour do with all the money it makes from ministers who slip up?