UK News

from Breakingviews:

UK’s problem: it’s the best in Europe

By Ian Campbell

The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.

UK GDP stalled in the fourth quarter, contracting by 0.2 percent. That’s bad. But which major west European economy will perform best in 2012? It’s the UK again, the IMF predicted this week.

Britain’s main problem is that it’s doing best in a troubled continent. If it achieves the meagre 0.6 percent growth the IMF predicts in 2012 it will have grown twice as fast as France or Germany and have evaded the 0.5 recession the IMF forecasts for the euro zone as a whole. The euro zone’s fiscal pain is the main obstacle to a firmer British recovery.

UK cuts, it’s true, aren’t helping growth in the short term. Since April austerity has kicked in hard, booting 193,000 unfortunate public sector employees out of work. Unemployment has risen to 2.7 million and will go higher.

But it is Europe, more than government cuts, which has dragged the UK back into negative territory. Half of British exports go to the euro zone. In December the CBI’s export order balance dropped to a 23-month low. Export weakness helps explain why industrial production plunged by 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter. Service industries, more domestically oriented, held up better.

December economic surveys point again to slightly firmer UK growth. The problem is that the European risk isn’t about to go away. In Italy and Spain the IMF foresees deep recessions, GDP declines of close to 2 percent this year and more shrinkage in 2013. What will that do to southern Europe’s debt servicing capacity?

from FaithWorld:

Ireland attacks confessional secrecy after Catholic sex abuse scandal

(A Roman Catholic Croat confesses to a priest during a pilgrimage in Krasno, some 150km (93 miles) south of Zagreb August 15, 2009/Nikola Solic )

Ireland's prime minister has said Catholic clerics would be prosecuted if they failed to tell the authorities about crimes disclosed during confession, the latest blow to the prestige of the once-dominant Church. A report this week found that the Church concealed from the authorities the sexual abuse of children by priests as recently as 2009, and that clerics appeared to follow Church law rather than Irish guidelines to protect minors.

"The law of the land should not be stopped by a crozier or a collar," Prime Minister Enda Kenny told journalists on Thursday, referring to the hooked staff held by Catholic bishops during religious services. Kenny said his government would submit legislation to parliament that could jail clerics for up to five years if they failed to report to authorities information about the abuse of children.

The law will override the confessional privilege in Church law that prevents clerics from sharing information, he said. A series of revelations of rape and beatings by members of religious orders and the priesthood in the past have shattered the dominant role of the Catholic Church in Ireland.

Ireland's Foreign Minister Eamon Gilmore on Thursday summoned the Pope's representative, the papal nuncio, after the report said that the Vatican had undermined Irish guidelines on reporting sex abuse by referring to them as "study guidelines."

"We consider it absolutely unacceptable that the Vatican intervened here in a way which had the effect of undermining the efforts to deal adequately with the issue of child sexual abuse," Gilmore said. "We want a response from the Vatican."

from The Great Debate UK:

Will Nick Clegg’s government “suggestion box” work?

-Mark Kobayashi-Hillary is the author of several books, including ‘Who Moved my Job?’ and ‘Global Services: Moving to a Level Playing Field’.The opinions expressed are his own.-

If Thomas Paine were around today he would be a blogger, writing virtual pamphlets that shake a fist at the machinery of government.

Fortunately I am a blogger, but as I sat in a library in Whitechapel this morning listening to Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg launching his ‘Your Freedom’ initiative, I couldn’t help recalling a few lines from Paine’s ‘Common Sense’:

“Some convenient tree will afford them a State House, under the branches of which the whole Colony may assemble to deliberate on public matters. It is more than probable that their first laws will have the title only of Regulations and be enforced by no other penalty than public disesteem. In this first parliament every man by natural right will have a seat.”

Paine was describing how a new society, without historical baggage, would setup and structure a system of parliament. There would be regular meetings under a tree for all locals, until the meetings got too large and unruly or we found it more convenient to outsource the attendance at the tree to a representative… something we now call parliamentary democracy.

But what happens if the parliamentary representatives get too detached from the people they represent? Regular elections are meant to provide an opportunity for the public to have a voice, but in a globally connected and constantly changing era, perhaps we need a better way of helping the public to find a voice.

Budget for votes riskily delays UK debt pain

– The author is a Reuters Breakingviews columnist. The opinions expressed are his own –

Alistair Darling promised no election “giveaways” and in one sense he delivered. The UK finance minister’s budget is about not giving away the election. It might have been worse — if Darling had acceded to his boss Gordon Brown’s even more populist instincts. But there are vote-seeking swipes at high earners and banks, as well as a crowd-pleasing but misguided tax cut to first-time house-buyers. The UK’s budget-balancing pain is being postponed and concealed. And that’s risky.

The headline measure is a tax cut. First time buyers of properties costing up to 250,000 pounds won’t have to pay anything to the government. Many voters will like that. They will like it, too, that people buying million pound properties foot the bill. A further bout of bank-bashing was part of the electioneering approach. Given the scandal of City rewards, few will blame Darling.

The economic impact, however, will be limited. The wobbly housing market may be helped slightly. But the UK economy needs to be buoyed by production and exports, not house price inflation.

Even so, Darling was able to present slightly better borrowing figures. VAT revenues have picked up strongly so far this year. Unemployment has not risen as much as feared. The budget projects a 167 billion pound deficit for this year, an 11 billion pound reduction on the previous forecast. And over the next several years a similar improvement is retained. But in 2010-11 the projected government deficit remains a colossal 163 billion pounds, 11 percent of GDP.

Thereafter, the deficit shrinks more rapidly as spending cuts start to take effect. But financial markets may not give much credit to these medium-term forecasts, because Darling has neglected to say where the cuts will fall — presumably because he thinks it will be too distasteful for voters to see. What’s more, he only reduces the red ink by projecting fairly rapid GDP growth of 3.25 percent next year and an average of 3.5 percent in 2012 and beyond. As the UK restructures, growth is unlikely to be high.

It is probably only a matter of time before financial markets signal, through interest rates, that their patience has run out. That moment could come soon if Greece or other troubled euro zone economies cause a new wave of risk aversion. But Labour’s hope that the budget will get it through to the election will probably be fulfilled. Then it will be up to either an incoming Conservative government to tighten its belt or re-elected Labour to spell out where the spending axe will fall.

from The Great Debate UK:

Send your questions to George Osborne

Shadow Chancellor George Osborne will set out the Conservative Party's strategy for rebuilding the UK economy in an exclusive Thomson Reuters Newsmaker at 11 a.m. on Monday, October 26.

We will bring you full coverage of Osborne's speech, including a live video feed and blog, after which we will conduct a short social media interview with him.

We want you to send us your questions to put to him.

This is your chance to grill the man who, according to the latest opinion polls, looks set to inhabit Number 11 Downing Street after the upcoming general election.

Be it on bankers' bonuses, tax havens or the Conservative Party's plans for leading us out of a recession, send us your questions now using the form below or via Twitter using the hashtag #askosborne.

Should BNP be on Question Time?

On Thursday night, BNP leader Nick Griffin will appear on the BBC’s leading current affairs programme “Question Time”, an appearance that has provoked much anger and debate.

Griffin is no stranger to the airwaves or TV screens, regularly appearing this week alone after four leading former generals attacked his party for using military imagery as part of its campaigning

But to some politicians, including Home Secretary Alan Johnson and Cabinet minister Peter Hain, the BBC’s decision to allow him on Question Time was totally wrong, giving a much higher profile platform to Griffin and his far-right views.

They also say that a recent court decision to order the BNP to open up its membership to non-whites meant the party broke race relations laws and was therefore unlawful.

One academic has said that a similar TV appearance by French far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen in the 1980s led to a huge increase in support for his Front National party, generating concern that Question Time will do the same for Griffin.

There is no doubt that support for the far-right is growing in Britain at the moment, although it remains very much at the fringes of mainstream politics. The BNP has dozens of councillors across the country, a seat in the London Assembly and most notably won two seats in European Parliamentary elections earlier this year.

BBC bosses argue that for that reason it is only right that Griffin is invited onto the flagship politcal show to answer questions about his party. They say it is for parliament and not for the broadcaster to censor political parties.

from The Great Debate UK:

Send your questions to Alistair Darling

Do you have a question you would like to ask Chancellor Alistair Darling? Now is your chance.

At 1:30pm British time on Wednesday, October 21, Reuters is hosting an exclusive Web 2.0 interview with Darling and we want you to send us your questions to put to the top man from the Treasury.

From the crippling global recession to the debate over bankers' bonuses, it has been a tumultuous year at Number 11 Downing Street. You may want to quiz the Chancellor on one of these topics, ask him about the government's plans to prevent another downturn or how Labour plan to defy the polls and win the upcoming general election.

During the interview we will put as many of your questions as possible to the Chancellor and will be running a liveblog of the event, much like we did during this social media interview with Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.

Leave your question in the comments box below or via Twitter (using #askdarling) and join us on Wednesday for our Web 2.0 interview with the Chancellor.

Clouds of change: Buzzwords from conference season

Opposition leader David Cameron has delivered his speech to the Conservative party conference in Manchester.******Cameron told delegates there would be “painful” cuts in public spending, promised to send more troops to Afghanistan and stressed the importance of confronting “Labour’s debt crisis.” He also pledged to modernise the pension system, “break the cycle of welfare dependency” and cut back on bureaucracy to make life easier for entrepreneurs.******Cameron’s speech brings conference season to an end. Leaders of the three main parties — Cameron, Prime Minister Gordon Brown and Nick Clegg for the Liberal Democrats — have all laid out their plans for Britain ahead of a general election due by June 2010.******The ‘word clouds’ below have been generated using the complete texts from each of the leaders’ keynote conference speeches, in the order they were given. At first glance there are some striking similarities and fascinating overlaps — but we will leave it to you to draw your own conclusions.******How did you think each of the leaders performed? Who did you find the most convincing? Is David Cameron ready to lead the country?******Keywords from Nick Clegg’s speech:************ ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******Keywords from Gordon Brown’s speech:************ ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ****** ******Keywords from David Cameron’s speech:******

People, Britain and change – Brown’s speech keywords

Prime Minister Gordon Brown has promised to clean up politics, get tough on crime in his keynote speech to the annual Labour Party conference in Brighton. He also pledged to address the bonus culture that many blame for the financial crisis.

The ‘Word Cloud’ below (click the image for a larger view), produced by Wordle, shows the words he used most frequently.

The speech was an attempt to rouse his beleaguered party and win back the middle-class voters who flocked to Labour under Tony Blair. The latest opinion poll from Ipsos Mori put Labour down in third place for the first time since 1982.

Reuters Chief Correspondent Keith Weir, who is live blogging the Labour conference, said the key themes that struck him were Brown’s focus on families, health, crime and middle or mainstream issues.

What did you think of Gordon Brown’s speech? Have your views on him changed? Do you think he can still win a general election next year?

from Matt Falloon:

Labour lays down policy gauntlet

The Conservatives might be wishing they could have held their party conference before Labour. Prime Minister Gordon Brown's address to his party conference in Brighton on Tuesday has thrown down a flood of new ideas, policies and initiatives from faster cancer diagnosis to choosing how Britain votes in what read more like an mini-election manifesto than a speech. Brown played to his strengths (policy) and avoided trying to overcome his well-known weaknesses (not much of a political entertainer) in public. Trying to be someone else could have been a disaster for a man way behind in the polls to the Conservatives. Whether it will be enough to make any difference to the polls remains to be seen -- Labour needs a miracle there after all. But, for now, going for the policy jugular seems to have done the trick -- giving his browbeaten party something to get excited about and hitting the Conservatives where it hurts. David Cameron's Conservatives have been accused of not giving enough detail on how they would govern the country if the polls are correct and they are to win power next year. They will have to start showing their hand soon if they are going to convince voters that they have the ideas to run the country and aren't just a vote for change for the sake of it.