Insights from the UK and beyond
from The Great Debate UK:
Whenever he approaches a bend, an F1 driver has to make a fine judgment: brake too soon and he loses vital momentum, too late and he risks losing control altogether, with possibly fatal consequences.
For the past year, the MPC has been getting closer to the bend β the point at which it will have to raise interest rates β so, as each month passes without a touch on the brakes, the balance of risk changes as the danger of losing control of inflation increases.
Unfortunately, this is where the analogy breaks down, because no racing driver ever has to cope with conditions as foggy as do economic policymakers. On the one hand, the signals from the real economy are mixed.The preliminary estimate of fourth quarter GDP showed a 0.5 percent contraction β but these estimates are prone to revision at the best of times, and with the exceptional weather conditions at the end of the year it is hard to have much confidence on this occasion. On the other hand, the inflation danger has been ever-present and growing, and the Bank of Englandβs 2 percent target has been more or less junked.
Consider the market data. If we look at the index-linked bond market, we see, on the one hand, a real rate which is zero or even negative and, on the other hand, an expected inflation rate rising from about 3 percent to above 4 percent over the next 20 years, which suggests only one thing: stagflation for the foreseeable future.