Insights from the UK and beyond
A ComRes/Independent poll this week says Gordon Brown has staged a stunning political recovery and that the Labour party is now just one point behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.
Yet only four days ago an ICM/Guardian survey said Conservative popularity had returned to its summer peak with 45 percent of voter support and a lead of 15 points.
Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting has published tables to show that ICM’s polls have been more consistent over the past year, with Comres swinging from giving the Tories a massive 22 point lead in July to its latest wafer-thin difference.
But it is not only these two polling companies who are producing contrasting results. In recent days we have also had a similar split between an 11-point Tory lead from Ipsos-Mori in the Observer and a mere 4 point Conservative advantage from YouGov in the Telegraph.
A poll for the BBC has indicated that the vast majority of the public want British troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan within the next year.
Since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, 124 British soldiers have been killed, with two Royal Marines becoming the latest casualties when their convoy was hit by an explosion on Wednesday.
For the first time since he became mayor of London on May 2, Boris Johnson has overtaken Conservative leader David Cameron in “favourability”, according to an opinion tracker published on www.politicshome.com.
Johnson scored a rating of 3, up from -7 at the end of April, while Cameron got rated 1, up from -5.