A ComRes/Independent poll this week says Gordon Brown has staged a stunning political recovery and that the Labour party is now just one point behind David Cameron and the Conservatives.

Yet only four days ago an ICM/Guardian survey said Conservative popularity had returned to its summer peak with 45 percent of voter support and a lead of 15 points.

Mike Smithson at Politicalbetting has published tables to show that ICM’s polls have been more consistent over the past year, with Comres swinging from giving the Tories a massive 22 point lead in July to its latest wafer-thin difference.

But it is not only these two polling companies who are producing contrasting results. In recent days we have also had a similar split between an 11-point Tory lead from Ipsos-Mori in the Observer and a mere 4 point Conservative advantage from YouGov in the Telegraph.

Which poll are we to believe? Even a seasoned commentator such as Strathclyde University Politics Professor John Curtice says he has no simple explanation.

He says the key events that shifted voter intentions back towards Brown were the Labour Party’s autumn UK conference and the government’s victory in the Glenrothes by-election, with last week’s Pre-Budget Report having less of an effect.

“Until the ComRes poll came out it looked as if the post-Glenrothes bounce was beginning to wane,” he told me.

“The Pre-Budget Report didn’t seem to be having much of an impact, but maybe rather than waning it’s still holding on. We’ll have to wait for the next poll.”

A poll for the BBC has indicated that the vast majority of the public want British troops to be withdrawn from Afghanistan within the next year.

Since the Taliban were ousted in 2001, 124 British soldiers have been killed, with two Royal Marines becoming the latest casualties when their convoy was hit by an explosion on Wednesday.

Defence Secretary John Hutton says it is more important than ever that the 8,000 British troops remain in the country to fight the resurgent Taliban, saying it is vital to British security and interests.

On a trip to London with President Hamid Karzai, Afghanistan’s foreign minister has said more international forces were needed while U.S. President-elect Barack Obama has promised to send in more U.S. troops.

Do you think British troops should stay in Afghanistan? Send us your comments.

For the first time since he became mayor of London on May 2, Boris Johnson has overtaken Conservative leader David Cameron in “favourability”, according to an opinion tracker published on www.politicshome.com.

Johnson scored a rating of 3, up from -7 at the end of April, while Cameron got rated 1, up from -5.

The PHI5000 tracker is based on replies from a politically balanced group of 5000 voters across the UK, who answer a survey every day for the site, which was launched in April and is powered by opinion pollsters YouGov.

The panel are asked daily questions on a rotation system, covering their attitudes to the whole political landscape. As part of this, politicshome tracks a wide range of political personalities, including Cameron’s and Johnson’s favourability ratings.

Because of the consistency of the sample and questionnaire of the tracker, the site is able to track subtle changes in public opinion, it says.