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One of Gordon Brown’s favourite speech writers is leaving Number 10 to return to the Treasury. That gives Brown the perfect opportunity to draft in someone who has the ability to coin the kind of phrases that chime with the electorate and stick in people’s minds.

To date, that is something Brown, whose dismal year in office was underlined on Friday with a humiliating fifth place by-election finish for Labour, has signally failed to do. Sure, Brown wanted to move away from the accusations of endless spin that soured the public mood towards his slick predecessor Tony Blair.

But the mantras Brown has chosen to repeat ad nauseum since he took up the mantle of Prime Minister have failed to stick. Stressing how many people Labour has taken out of poverty in the past decade, or the need to take “long-term decisions” just isn’t working.

People need reassurance over fuel and food prices, over crime and security, but perhaps more than anything they need to be convinced Brown understands — and cares.

Brown — nicknamed the Iron Chancellor during his decade at the Treasury — is right to focus on the long-term. He wants to ensure people can afford to buy homes, that the country slashes its reliance on non-environmentally friendly energy, and that taxpayers have access to good healthcare, education and welfare support.

But with voters feeling the pinch, it’s the short term that’s key, and if Brown wants his messages about the kind of place Britain needs to become longer-term to stick, he might need to think about the kind of sound-bite approach that Blair used so well.

Brown’s tried a more “man of the people” approach but that hasn’t convinced. Voters are not warming to the serious, unsmiling Prime Minister. And if Brown can’t change his manner, then he needs to change the kinds of words he uses.

Of course, he will also need some luck. No amount of “in tune” rhetoric is going to help if people continue to feel he’s not the man to lead them through the economic bad times. But at the moment, his language and demeanour seem to compound voters’ unease. The Iron Chancellor risks becoming the leaden Prime Minister of British history: dull, inert and potentially poisonous.

Leader writers applauded the shock value of David Davis’ resignation but were divided over his motives and predicted the potentially shambolic by-election to come would damage the Conservative party.

With the LibDems already having said they will not field a candidate on July 10 and Labour still mulling the options, the papers raised the spectre of Davis campaigning alone against fringe parties like the Monster Raving Loonies and a motley crew of publicity-seekers.

“Yesterday he slashed his own party’s jugular instead of Gordon Brown,” said the Sun. “He will win praise from many voters glad to see a politician standing on a point of principle but in truth his vanity has led to an act of incredible selfishness.”

The Daily Mail also praised his principles but questioned his judgement. “At the very least it deprives the Conservatives of a recognised big hitter ..,” it said. “More worryingly Mr Davis leaves his party leader … exposed to accusations of internal division.”

Right on cue, the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror twisted the knife. Under the headline “Cracks in Cam’s Lot,” it praised Davis for his stand, but said he had thrown the spotlight on party leader David Cameron.

“His failure to show true leadership has left him with a thorn in his side that threatens to divide the Tories,” it crowed. “If Cameron can’t keep a grip on his party in opposition, how would he cope with the pressure of running the country.”

The Independent said Davis’ move “cannot be interpreted as anything other than an act of reckless egotism” which had indeed exposed divisions on the Conservative front bench about 42 days pre-charge detention. Like several other papers, it wondered whether Davis still harboured a grudge against Cameron for having beaten him in the party’s 2005 leadership election.

“The resignation is the first bit of luck Gordon Brown has had in many months,” it concludes.

The Financial Times said the forthcoming by-election “is more likely to be a damp squib than a national rallying point,” and added: “The Tories need fewer gimmicks and more gravitas.”

The Guardian said the Tories are “aghast” at Davis’ stand and echoed many papers’ suspicions that he had been carried away by the emotion of the moment after Wednesday night’s Commons vote in favour of 42 days.

“Everyone at Westminster yesterday thought his decision mad,” it added. “Mr Davis’ job now is to prove all of them wrong.”

The pro-Tory Daily Telegraph said the shock should act as a wake-up call to the Conservatives. “It is no secret at Westminster that the top of the party is run by a small clique of which Mr Davis was not a part,” it says, calling such cabalism unworthy of a government in waiting.

But for the Times, Davis has made a big mistake. Under the headline “From bruiser to Loser”, it said: “David Davis may hold sincere convictions but he has put them and his party at risk for the sake of a disastrous ego trip.”

As much as stunned Labour MPs wander around like Corporal Jones telling each other not to panic after the dreadful result for them in Crewe, many of the newspapers believe Gordon Brown’s days are now numbered.

The Guardian, under the headline “Brown faces meltdown,” says he is facing the gravest crisis of his premiership in the run-up to the Autumn party conference. Like many other newspapers it says the decision to dress Labour activists in top hats and deride the Conservative candidate as a “toff” was a fundamental mistake, albeit one endorsed by Brown.

“Deciding who was responsible for the approach will be a central part of any Labour inquest,” the paper said.

The Daily Express says Brown is now likely to face a “stalking horse” leadership challenge in the Autumn, possibly from a former minister like Charles Clarke or Alan Milburn, with a view to getting rid of him well before the next general election.

Any attempts to unseat Brown will not be forgiven, the Daily Mirror says potential rebels have been told. The paper says Downing Street fears Blairite supporters will be giving interviews this weekend trying to undermine the leader.

Several papers believe Brown will have difficulty coming up with a raft of new policy announcemenets to rejuvenate Labour, having already unveiled many plans in last week’s draft Queen’s speech and moved to defuse the 10p income tax row.

A snap cabinet reshuffle looks unlikely for fear of appearing a panic measure, comments the Independent.

The Daily Mail says some estimates suggest 70 to 90 Labour MPs have given up on Brown altogether with another 120 wavering. But it notes that with the week-long Whitsun recess now having bugun, there is unlikely to be any immediate move to unseat him.

The Mail is among several papers to point to John Major as an example of how difficult it actually is to get rid of a sitting Prime Minister, however unpopular.

“Mr Brown’s fate will ultimately be decided by the Parliamentary Labour Party which meets on Monday week to mull over the result,” it declares.

The Sun calls the result a “Crewe cut” for Brown and says voters punished Labour for soaring household bills and uncontrolled immigration.

The Daily Telegraph likens Labour to the Titanic: “with Gordon Brown at the helm, it is heading staright towards the iceberg that is the next general election,” its political editor Andrew Porter writes, noting that Brown’s best hope — an upturn in the economy — looks increasingly unlikely.

Crewe was a protest “on an epic scale” for the Financial Times

“There will be no shortage of advice for the prime minister, much of it conflicting,” writes Philip Stephens. “He should give definition to his premiership, show purpose for his government; he should swing back onto Blairite reformist ground; or perhaps he should lurch to the left to win back the core vote. He should smile more; or perhaps he should just be himself.”

The paper finds one glimmer of hope for Labour — that those knocking on the doors in Crewe and Nantwich found little evidence of a groundswell for the Conservatives, it says. The voters were more concerned to bash Labour than embrace the Tories.

But Stephens adds: “The comparison that will haunt him this weekend, though, is with the Eastbourne by-election in the autumn of 1990. Margaret Thatcher lost the seat to the Liberal Democrats on a 20 percent swing - and within a month she was gone.”

How much should MPs be allowed to keep confidential?

The High Court has ruled that Members of Parliament must disclose details of expenses claimed for second homes and the location of those properties.

House of Commons authorities had sought to block the publication of second-home expense claims for 14 current and former MPs — including Tony Blair and Gordon Brown — requested under the Freedom of Information Act.

It had been argued on behalf of the politicians that publication of the addresses of second homes would pose a security risk and could inhibit what politicians would be
prepared to say publicly.

But Mr Justice Igor Judge disagreed, saying it was in the public interest to have a detailed breakdown of second-home allowances and that anyone determined enough could find an MP’s address anyway.

Under the so-called “John Lewis list” MPs can claim items up to 23,000 pounds a year for second homes, they need to be near their constituents. The details are here. They include for example 10,000 pounds for a new kitchen and over 6,000 pounds for a new bathroom.

Some critics have said the secret system allowed MPs effectively to “write their own cheques” but others say the war on MPs’ expenses has gone far enough — that they are public servants who devote a huge amount of their time to their jobs as MPs, often during antisocial hours and far from their homes and that they deserve some help if we are to have an effective national parliament.

What do you think?

The ever increasing tax burden and Gordon Brown’s woes dominate the front pages today.

The Daily Telegraph reports research has shown that the average motorist is paying more than £600 a year extra in tax under Labour. Story here

The tax burden also makes front page news in the Daily Express which says Prime Minister Gordon Brown has been warned that he must stop tax rises or face defeat in the next election. Story here

The Daily Mail says price rises mean families have less to spend than for 17 years. Story here

Brown’s style of leadership and signs that support for him in his own party is waning also feature heavily on the front pages. The Times says more than half of Labour supporters believe that Brown should stand down to make way for a more electable politician. Story here

Brown also faces new threats to his authority over Scottish independence, 42-days detention and the 10p tax climbdown, The Guardian says. Story here

The Independent leads with the cyclone in Myanmar, saying the country’s military government is obstructing global aid efforts. Story here

The Sun also focuses on the Myanmar cyclone, the “Tide of Death” as it says. Story here

Hearing Gordon Brown say he’d made mistakes yesterday almost made me jump. Could the Great Clunking Fist really be admitting he’d got something wrong?

I’ve been covering Brown for more than ten years — both at the Treasury and now at No 10. And in all the interviews, international trips and news conferences I have never heard him say sorry.

He’ll usually quotes a blizzard of figures or just repeat what he said, just more emphatically. He certainly would never concede anyone else could be right.

That was much the case when the whole row over the 10 pence tax row started. Brown wouldn’t accept that his abolition of the lowest tax rate could hit millions of poor people.

Fairly or unfairly he maintained that people losing out from scrapping the 10p rate would benefit from other allowances or tax credits. People would come to understand this was a major tax reform — he also cut the basic rate of tax to 20 pence from 22 pence in the pound. Nor were there too many rebels in his own Labour Party.

That changed last week though when nearly 50 Labour MPs looked ready to vote against the government. The Treasury quickly said it would make some concessions in the form of handouts to anyone losing out.

And then on Wednesday, Brown admitted he had made not just one, but two mistakes. He had not thought about the low-paid who didn’t get a tax credit and there was no help for some of the elderly who don’t get pensioners’ tax allowances.

This appears to be the new listening Gordon. His new strategists — former PR guru Stephen Carter and ad man David Muir — must be telling him he has to emote more.

Labour is taking a pounding in the polls and his own personal ratings have dropped sharply over the last six months.

We saw a bit of this a couple of weeks ago. Instead of crying his usual refrain that no country can insulate itself from the ups and downs of the global economy, Brown said he understood people’s concerns, their worries about their well-being.

On top of that, Brown is probably genuinely wounded by people thinking he was robbing the poor to pay the middle classes. One of his lasting legacies running the Treasury for a decade has been a more redistributive focus to tax policy.

He does care about helping the poor, he is never more passionate than when talking about ending poverty in Africa.

The problem is that he doesn’t do touchy-feely very well. Perhaps the great irony is that Conservative leader David Cameron — a child of privilege, educated at Eton and Oxford — does the bloke-next-door so much better than Brown, son of a stern Scottish clergyman.

Cameron often peppers his conversation with everyday slang and talks about “stuff”. Brown finds it hard to stop himself from talking about economic stability, fiscal rectitude and the long-term challenges facing Britain.

Brown may think he is building a better, fairer Britain. He needs to say it better.

Gordon Brown on Wednesday made what the British media and opposition parties widely judged to be the most humiliating and embarrassing policy change of his short career as Prime Minister: a climbdown over concessions to those made worse off by his scrapping of the lowest, 10 pence income tax rate.

Conservative leader David Cameron, hoping to oust Brown and Labour in the next election, branded Brown a “pathetic” figure. Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg called him “increasingly pointless”.

Brown, they crowed, was an isolated figure, forced into what the Daily Mail said was a “humiliating U-turn” over tax policies he introduced last year in his final Budget as Finance Minister. Cameron said it was a “massive loss of authority”.

So, is he — and was it?

Undoubtedly, Brown has courted a lot of very bad press over the 10 pence issue. Claims the Labour government have done more than any other this century to help people out of poverty sounded hollow when it became clear that by abolishing a tax band he introduced, Brown was making five million households worse off. The subsequent open rebellion from
Labour backbenchers over the issue just made matters worse.

In the end, however, Brown did — although not admitting a mistake — make changes, stressing he had listened to people’s concerns and acted.

And if Brown can play it right, he may be able to convince voters increasingly turned off Brown and the Labour party that this is the mark of a good leader. “On 10p tax, he listened and acted. That is a sign of strength, not weakness,” the influential Sun newspaper said in an editorial.

Others echoed the line of rebel politician Frank Field, who led the 10p tax revolt, in urging Brown to listen on other unpopular policies. “He can start by scrapping plans to extend
detention without trial to 42 days, a proposal wrong both in principle and practice,” the Daily Mirror said.

If Brown, whom voters view as aloof compared to his populist predecessor Tony Blair, does start to show more of an ability to listen, learn and communicate, however, that may not be enough to silence the low-level chatter that has started to surface about his ability to lead the party into the next election.

Foreign Secretary David Miliband warned Labour at the weekend to stop fighting or it could damage its election chances — a move that raised eyebrows given Miliband is viewed as a possible Brown successor.

Brown has room to reassert his authority. He does not need to hold a general election for another two years, employment remains strong, moves are being made to kick-start the housing market, and the economy is still expected to grow this year.

But first he must weather some major political storms: the biggest work stoppages in a decade, unpopular changes to terror detention laws and local elections on May 1 that will be pored over for evidence of his ability to lead Labour into a fourth successive term in office. No number of visits from George Clooney can help with that.

For Gordon Brown on his U.S. trip it has been a case of when the cat is away the mice will play. While Brown was at the White House working to shore up the “special relationship” with President George W. Bush, rebellion broke out in Labour ranks at home.

First, Labour peer Lord Desai launched an extraordinary attack on Brown, telling the Evening Standard: “Gordon Brown was put on earth to remind people how good Tony Blair was.”

Then it emerged that a junior member of Brown’s government, Angela Smith, was threatening to resign over Brown’s abolition of the 10 pence tax rate — a move that many Labour MPs fear will hit the low-paid and hurt Labour in May 1 local elections.

Smith’s on-off resignation was played out in real time on the 24-hour news channels. And just as Brown was about to give a news conference with Bush at the White House, news that Smith had told colleagues she was ready to quit broke.

The threat evidently caused consternation among Brown aides. A resignation of even such a junior minister when Brown was striding the world stage would have been hugely embarrassing.

There was silence from Smith’s office for several hours as, behind the scenes, Brown got on the phone to Smith to persuade her to change her mind. Then Smith issued a statement saying:”Resignation of my post … is not envisaged.”

So have the rumblings of discontent over Brown been blown out of proportion during a quiet news week? Or does it signal that his 10-month-old premiership is in irreversible decline?

When parliament reopens on Monday, Brown faces a revolt among Labour backbenchers over the removal of the 10 pence tax rate and over Brown’s controversial plans to extend the time terrorism suspects may be held from 28 to 42 days.

Brown may be forced to compromise on both issues if he is to avoid a humiliating parliamentary defeat.

More than 60 MPs, many of them Labour, have signed a parliamentary motion urging the government to change the tax system to make sure the low-paid pay less tax.

Brown’s poll numbers are terrible. A Sunday Times poll this week showed the collapse in Brown’s personal popularity ratings was worse even than the drop suffered by Neville Chamberlain after Hitler’s invasion of Norway in 1940.

The Conservatives opened a 16-point gap over Labour in that poll, and worryingly for the government, are now consistently scoring above the 40 percent of the vote mark that could give them a breakthrough at the next general election.

To make matters worse for Brown the credit crunch has tarnished the reputation for economic competence that was his main trump card. A Financial Times poll this week showed Brown was less trusted than any other major western European leader in being able to steer his country through the financial whirlwind.

And Brown can’t seem to buy any luck at the moment. After chafing in Blair’s shadow during a decade of prosperity, the sub-prime crisis broke within months of Brown taking power, bringing down Northern Rock and sowing worries about job losses and falling house prices.

Brown even chose to visit the United States the same week that Pope Benedict was attracting huge crowds there, pushing the little known British leader into the shade.

The slide in their party’s fortunes has unsettled Labour politicians, some of whom are beginning to pine for Blair’s sure touch which won Labour three elections.

Lord Desai said Labour was on track for a “bad result” in the May 1 local elections. If Labour’s Ken Livingstone loses the London mayoral race, “it would be absolutely traumatic for the party,” he said.

Desai was quoted as saying that many senior figures in the party were already thinking about who will succeed Brown. However, most experts dismiss talk of a leadership
challenge any time soon.

Brown can claim some success from his U.S. trip. He appears to have firmed up the initially shaky relationship he struck up with Bush. And he scored an undisputed diplomatic triumph by arranging meetings with all three U.S. presidential candidates.

It was a sign of the importance they place on the U.S. relationship with Britain that Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John McCain found space in their busy schedules for strictlyequal, 45-minute meetings with Brown.

Brown must hope he can carry as much weight with his own restive backbenchers.