UK News
Insights from the UK and beyond
To spend, or not to spend?
A day after Britain unveiled a multi-billion-pound fiscal stimulus package to spend its way out of recession, market analysts have been busy figuring out what it all means, in the context of a sharply slowing economy.
Nick Parsons, head of market strategy at nabCapital, has come to this conclusion:
"People need to spend less, not more, and though little Johnny's Xbox is indeed 4 quid cheaper, his Dad's house is worth £3.97 less every hour,"he wrote in his daily note.
"That’s every hour of every day, 24 hours a day and is not going to get in the slightest bit better as a result of yesterday's budget announcement… Thanks to the VAT reduction, Easter eggs might be 10p cheaper next year but by then average house prices will be another £10,000 cheaper. Go figure."
You know things are bad when..
- You know exactly what the population of Iceland is and can also pronounce the name of its prime minister.
- Even the word ‘crisis’ seems to have lost its currency.
- Countries pop up for sale on eBay for 99p and get few offers.
- Posters on BBC messageboards stop discussing the undulating pitch of Robert Peston’s voice and listen to what he’s actually saying.
- The speech bubble on Page 3 of the Sun is given over to discussing the credit crisis.
- Financial market updates displace stories about Jade Goody on the tabloid front pages.
- Bad news stories from government departments are rushed out day after day and not even the Opposition seems to notice.
- Estate agents finally admit house prices have fallen but tell you now is a really great time to buy because the market is stabilising.
- People marketing get-rich-quick property seminars don’t get taken seriously any more.
- The Chancellor, writing in the Financial Times, says that “now, more than ever, we need new ideas”.
- Your primary school-aged children know that credit crunch is not a type of biscuit and that IMF isn’t just a fictional organisation in Mission Impossible.
- You go for a while without noticing one estate agent’s mini and then you see a whole bunch of them on the back of a car transporter.
- A pensioner on the evening tube train from Canary Wharf gives up her seat to a banker because she reckons he might need it.
- The Ivy rings to ask if you’d like a table tonight or any night.
- There are no spare trolleys when you turn up at Aldi to do your weekly shop.
Do you have any better suggestions? All contributions welcome - please send in your selection.
Currency key in property hotspots
British house prices might be in the doldrums, but isolated hospots around the world are bucking the trend. Bulgaria has again topped Knight Frank’s quarterly global house price index, confounding market fears of oversupply. It has reigned supreme at the top of the table since the second quarter of last year and notched up annualised price growth of 31.5 percent in the first quarter of 2008 — far above a worldwide average of 6.1 percent.
Making up the rest of the top ten are: Singapore (29.9 percent), Hong Kong (28.8 percent), Jersey (28 percent), Russia (21.7 percent), Iceland (19.1 percent), Australia (13.8 percent), China (11.7 percent) and Sweden (9.1 percent).
In contrast, property in the Baltic region is being blighted by difficult economic conditions, evident in high rates of national debt. Latvia and Estonia suffered the worst house price drops during the first three months of the year: prices in Riga fell 20 percent on an annual basis, while those in Tallinn declined 10.7 percent.
The US is also continuing to experience difficulties, but overall managed to stay out of negative territory during the quarter, when property prices were flat. This side of the Atlantic, prices rose just 1.1 percent in Britain — significantly lower than the 11.2 percent raked up in the first quarter of last year.
Those looking to invest in property now have to scour the globe for potential purchases: “The geography of the best performing markets is not so clearly delineated as in previous years, when we might have been able to say that growth was strongest in the Far East, or Central and Eastern Europe,” says Liam Bailey, head of residential property at Knight Frank. “Today, the top performing markets are dispersed around the world.”
But investors should also not overlook one crucial factor: exchange rates. The strength of the Euro and weakness of the American dollar against the pound have seen buyers turn to the States and away from the typical holiday home destinations of France and Spain, according to foreign exchange firm HiFX. Enquires about property purchases in France and Spain have fallen 11 percent and 12.5 percent respectively since March, while those for the US have doubled since April.
Interest is also increasing in emerging markets such as Panama, Egypt and Brazil, it says. With sterling trading at its lowest levels in six years against the Brazilian real there could be some bargains to be had, but be warned: those looking for a holiday home could find themselves exposed to the wild currency fluctuations experienced in these developing destinations.
Another “slap in face with wet kipper” Budget
By Francesca Lagerberg, head of the national tax office, Grant Thornton
Most Budgets have all the attraction of being slapped in the face with a wet kipper and sadly this one is unlikely to reverse the trend. As expected, from today up goes the cost of booze (4p on a pint) and fags (11p on a packet). Also for those who like driving larger less-green new cars there is a “showroom” tax coming in from 2009 that could cost them around 950 pounds.
However, for the entrepreneur there was a little cheer. After strong representations from business, Chancellor Alistair Darling has deferred the “income shifting” rules that were due to start from this April. These were a direct attack on family-owned businesses that include lower tax paying family members who take out dividends or profits but make a less significant contribution to the business. A case last year (Jones v Garnett) went against the government and it was looking to legislate to get the result it wanted. The proposals were wide-ranging and ill-targeted. A deferral will hopefully allow time to revisit this whole approach.
The working family got several name-checks in the Budget speech and this broadly amounts to an increase in child benefit (20 pounds per week for the first child) and the child element of child tax credit, but this will not take effect until April 2009.
There was no further change to the capital gains tax (CGT) regime so that from April 6 all individuals will be paying at a flat rate of 18 percent with the only hope of reducing the charge being a special entrepreneurs’ relief that has stringent qualifying conditions, but may help the smaller business to take their charge down to an effective rate of 10 percent. However, some others clearly benefit under the new regime. For example, those looking to sell a buy-to-let property after April will find that the new rules help them as the best tax rate they would get under the existing legislation would be 24 percent.
For non-domiciled individuals, the Chancellor provided further details on the radical changes taking effect from April 6. If they want to continue to get the tax advantages of being non-domiciled in the UK after then they will have to pay 30,000 pounds for the privilege once they are resident here for seven out of the past 10 years. However, for those who would not remotely be able to pay such a high levy remitting just small amounts of foreign income (2,000 pounds) will not be caught. This is a slight increase on the original 1,000 pound proposal. There is also a new test of where you were at midnight to work out what days you were really present in the UK, which may be more useful to internationally mobile workers than the rules we heard of last October at the pre-Budget report.
So, overall Darling’s first Budget was short on drama, but long on minor detail. A massive 207 pages of back-up notes support the Budget Red Book. For most people this event will provide little to cheer, but equally little to passionately dislike.











































